To Keep Or Not To Keep: Jake Arrieta @ $15

[senorsheep]

I'm looking for opinions on a keeper decision for my $15 Jake Arrieta. My league is an NL-only 4x4 auction league using Wins, ERA, K's, and Saves, 11 teams, $260 budget.

There's no question that Jake Arrieta is a pitcher in decline - from 2015 to 2018, WHIP is up, FIP is up, xFIP is up, BAPIP is up, K's are down, swinging strike rate is down, etc.

Entering his age 33 season, I'm expecting something along the lines of 170 IP, 12 Wins, 4.10 ERA, and 140 K, if he stays healthy.

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My other keepers are:

OF - Pollock ($10)
1B - Goldschmidt ($43)
2B - Shaw ($11)
3B - Camargo ($2)

P - Corbin ($10)
P - Woodruff ($5)
P - Foltynewicz ($3)
P - Knebel ($6)

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Arguments for keeping:

* He's been pretty reliable innings eater; health isn't typically a concern.
* Last year's troubling stats were due to a second-half drop-off that may have been due to his wobbly knee, which was theoretically fixed by his off-season meniscus clean-up.
* He could end up with more wins than he deserves with a killer Philly offense behind him.
* Front line pitching is going to be hard to come by in this year's auction; many of the elite names are being kept, and SP1's & SP2's will be unavailable/ unaffordable.
* Pitchers of his calibur tend to go for slightly more than his current salary in our league.

Arguments for dropping:

* K's have dropped noticeably the past few years, and that's where much of his value comes from.
* If his decline continues, there is little, if any, value to be had at $15.
* I'm typically very good at finding starting pitching value in our auctions, and I don't think I'd have much problem replacing him with younger and/or cheaper options in the end game.
* I have a lot of spots to fill, and he could present an opportunity cost.
* He's getting older, and older pitchers typically don't get better once age-related decline starts.

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So, what do you think, keep or drop? I think my decision right now is an unenthusiastic keep, thinking that his decline will flatten out, and he'll largely be the pitcher he was in 2017/ first half of 2018, with some fall-off due to his age. Obviously, I'll need to monitor him closely in ST to gauge his health.

Am I missing anything? Are my projections about right? Is my analysis good? Is my conclusion good? What say The Pen?

Thanks!

[overkill94]

That's probably what you'd have to pay at the auction so you could take it or leave it. The two definite SPs you are keeping (Folty and Corbin) have some red flags as well so maybe you could spend that $15 on someone more reliable like a Kyle Hendricks or Kenta Maeda instead?

[revo]

That's probably what you'd have to pay at the auction so you could take it or leave it. The two definite SPs you are keeping (Folty and Corbin) have some red flags as well so maybe you could spend that $15 on someone more reliable like a Kyle Hendricks or Kenta Maeda instead?

Agreed. Drop him and if he's the best available in the draft, buy him back for a similar amount.

[harmon]

More food for thought:

Not only should the Philly offence be much better but the defence will be as well. They were just horrendous in the field last year. Segura at SS, Hoskins at 1B, and Cutch in the OF should be huge.

Every Philly pitcher should see improvements in ERA and Wins. I'll go against the grain and suggest you keep him.

[scottw]

More food for thought:

Not only should the Philly offence be much better but the defence will be as well. They were just horrendous in the field last year. Segura at SS, Hoskins at 1B, and Cutch in the OF should be huge.

Every Philly pitcher should see improvements in ERA and Wins. I'll go against the grain and suggest you keep him.

I'm with Harmon.SP's from Philly were absolutely trashed by the defense behind them last year. Arrietta dealt with the knee as well as that awful D. His stuff still looks good insofar as a veteran SP goes; you aren't going to see him at 97, but he can pitch.

[senorsheep]

I'm with Harmon.SP's from Philly were absolutely trashed by the defense behind them last year. Arrietta dealt with the knee as well as that awful D. His stuff still looks good insofar as a veteran SP goes; you aren't going to see him at 97, but he can pitch.

Another point in his favor: Throughout his statistical decline over the past few years, his fastball velocity has remained steady at 93.

[pitbull]

There are some interesting points in keeping him but he is a pitcher going south so at $15 you are rolling the dice. I see him earning $15 at best if he doesn't decline too much more but if the wheels really come off then defense and runs are not going to save him. You know who is available in your league and you might be better off in the long run to throw him back. In my league I wouldn't even thing twice about throwing him back.

[TS Garp]

Agreed. Drop him and if he's the best available in the draft, buy him back for a similar amount.

This.

[Gregg]

These are the what I wrestle with all the time.

* Front line pitching is going to be hard to come by in this year's auction; many of the elite names are being kept, and SP1's & SP2's will be unavailable/ unaffordable.
* Pitchers of his calibur tend to go for slightly more than his current salary in our league.


* I'm typically very good at finding starting pitching value in our auctions, and I don't think I'd have much problem replacing him with younger and/or cheaper options in the end game.
* I have a lot of spots to fill, and he could present an opportunity cost.

In the end I think the reasons for dropping him this year outweigh keeping him.

[Sour Masher]

I'm in the camp with harmon. I see opportunity for him to be a good bit better this year. But keeping him at that price would depend on my needs and the available pitchers in the auction. Sometimes I think we focus so much on the guy we have control over, we don't compare him fairly with others that are in the auction. So, I try to look at the other players that will be available and really try to determine if I'd prefer other options that I'd have a chance to bid on in the auction. If Arrieta is the guy you'd want to target in his tier in the auction, I'd keep him. If there are other players that should go for around 15 that you'd like a shot at, I would not.

[TS Garp]

More food for thought:

Not only should the Philly offence be much better but the defence will be as well. They were just horrendous in the field last year. Segura at SS, Hoskins at 1B, and Cutch in the OF should be huge.

Every Philly pitcher should see improvements in ERA and Wins. I'll go against the grain and suggest you keep him.

Getting Hoskins out of the outfield is automatically a defensive upgrade and Segura is also an upgrade at SS. But McCutchen is not a good defensive outfielder. He was horrible in center and better in right but I don't think he's an asset out there. Harper is not a good defensive player, either, and they still have Franco and Hernandez in there, who are not good defensively. So, yes, their defense will be better but I still don't think it's a strength.

[cavebird]

I'd drop him, but it is hard for me to be objective given that I want the Phillies to do badly this year. (And the Nats, Mets, and Marlins, for that matter.) The defense will be better for Arrieta, but the park is still a band box and he is definitely in the decline phase of his career. On the positive side, the defense improves from abysmal to average (Cutch and Harper aren't good fielders, but anything is better than what they trotted out in the outfield last year), and he doesn't have the late signing issue to deal with this year. Still, unless you would be willing to pay $20 for him at auction, why keep him at $15? He's not a game changer, and he could go for below or above $15. He's become a fungible mid-range pitcher; no reason to keep them at value. Your guess as to stats sounds about right to me.