Al LABR Auction

[cavebird]

Well respected pro auctions always make me question myself more than drafts, because it can't just be one outlier who loves a guy more than I think he should. It has to be at least two experts that do. Seeing $15 by his name certainly made me think I was missing something about him.

Remember, even pro auction end up in a phase where a couple of teams realize they have too much money. And in only auctions, they know they have to pay for whoever is left who will play.

[Erik]

Remember, even pro auction end up in a phase where a couple of teams realize they have too much money. And in only auctions, they know they have to pay for whoever is left who will play.

Yep. Most of these people are experts at analyzing stats and making projections moreso than bidding at auctions. Remember when Ron Shandler paid $19 for Nick Punto?

[Ken]

Yep. Most of these people are experts at analyzing stats and making projections moreso than bidding at auctions. Remember when Ron Shandler paid $19 for Nick Punto?

Careful, I bet those guys do a lot more auctions than most of us do. I've seen many, many articles about auction strategy, not just projections.

[SlideRule]

Anybody know when the reserve round picks will be entered?

[cavebird]

Careful, I bet those guys do a lot more auctions than most of us do. I've seen many, many articles about auction strategy, not just projections.

Yep, many of them do. It still doesn't mean that in an experts league that two or more don't get caught out. It seems obvious that a few did in both the AL and NL LABR auctions. Hell, one or more will probably write an article soon about how their strategy went to crap and they didn't react well.

[Ken]

Yep, many of them do. It still doesn't mean that in an experts league that two or more don't get caught out. It seems obvious that a few did in both the AL and NL LABR auctions. Hell, one or more will probably write an article soon about how their strategy went to crap and they didn't react well.

I don’t disagree. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t experts at biding. Happens to everyone. Even the “experts”

[Todd Zola]

FWIW - I have Mullins priced in the mid-teens. I was hoping he'd go a few bucks cheaper but paying $15 was by no means mistake or poor planning. I really don't see a ton of bust potential, with definite upside in terms of bags. His minor league success rate was a bit inconsistent, but he's got the speed and can learn to be an efficient runner.

[cavebird]

FWIW - I have Mullins priced in the mid-teens. I was hoping he'd go a few bucks cheaper but paying $15 was by no means mistake or poor planning. I really don't see a ton of bust potential, with definite upside in terms of bags. His minor league success rate was a bit inconsistent, but he's got the speed and can learn to be an efficient runner.

I would think the bust potential is that the bat is bad enough that he's hitting .175 on June 1st and they try another kid in his position. The steals are upside, and the bat is upside (including power, especially in that park), but he's hardly guaranteed to hit well enough to stay in the majors---even for the Orioles.

[Todd Zola]

I would think the bust potential is that the bat is bad enough that he's hitting .175 on June 1st and they try another kid in his position. The steals are upside, and the bat is upside (including power, especially in that park), but he's hardly guaranteed to hit well enough to stay in the majors---even for the Orioles.

Most systems land Mullins in the .250 range. Nothing is guaranteed, obviously, but a .175 average is a bit of a hyperbolic defense. Projections consider the lower end plausible outcomes as well as the upper end. Mullins makes good contact with speed and a splash of power, enough to hit into some BABIP good luck and post a .280-18-25 line etc. Projections average it all out. I'm comfortable paying for .252, 15 HR, 19 SB, very much in line with the projections available on Fangraphs.

[Sour Masher]

Most systems land Mullins in the .250 range. Nothing is guaranteed, obviously, but a .175 average is a bit of a hyperbolic defense. Projections consider the lower end plausible outcomes as well as the upper end. Mullins makes good contact with speed and a splash of power, enough to hit into some BABIP good luck and post a .280-18-25 line etc. Projections average it all out. I'm comfortable paying for .252, 15 HR, 19 SB, very much in line with the projections available on Fangraphs.

One reason I originally asked, is because I have him. I'm happy to see his adp and price rising, showing some potential. I hope he lives up to it!

ETA: I also have O'Hearn, so I'd love to get your thoughts on him, as you took him too. I know SSS, but he sure looked good last year.

[cavebird]

Most systems land Mullins in the .250 range. Nothing is guaranteed, obviously, but a .175 average is a bit of a hyperbolic defense. Projections consider the lower end plausible outcomes as well as the upper end. Mullins makes good contact with speed and a splash of power, enough to hit into some BABIP good luck and post a .280-18-25 line etc. Projections average it all out. I'm comfortable paying for .252, 15 HR, 19 SB, very much in line with the projections available on Fangraphs.

I was just speaking of the bust potential. Yes, the projections do average it all out. And when they say the average is .252, there is a not-unsubstantial chance that the reality is .220 (20% result?) or even .175 (2% result; yes it was a bit of hyperbole, he makes contact, just not much hard contact, which can be problematic). He does have bust potential, like almost all young players. I just would not be comfortable paying that much for a guy with that much of a bust potential. It could definitely work out, but obviously, the higher the price, the more the downside, the less the upside.

EDIT: The other big downside for him is his platoon splits. He could easily end up on the weak side of his platoon. That probably wouldn't affect the steals that much (platoon guys get tons of pinch-running appearances), but the HR would probably suffer (although they might not given his lack of power from the left side), and the RBI/Runs would definitely suffer.

[Todd Zola]

EDIT: The other big downside for him is his platoon splits. He could easily end up on the weak side of his platoon. That probably wouldn't affect the steals that much (platoon guys get tons of pinch-running appearances), but the HR would probably suffer (although they might not given his lack of power from the left side), and the RBI/Runs would definitely suffer.

FWIW, scouting reports have his bat more advanced from the left side and while last season is a small sample, not enough to corroborate, Mullins was stronger versus RHP. Check out his scouting report on Baseball Savant, it paints a rosier picture.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cedric-mullins-656775?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb

[cavebird]

I was just speaking of the bust potential. Yes, the projections do average it all out. And when they say the average is .252, there is a not-unsubstantial chance that the reality is .220 (20% result?) or even .175 (2% result; yes it was a bit of hyperbole, he makes contact, just not much hard contact, which can be problematic). He does have bust potential, like almost all young players. I just would not be comfortable paying that much for a guy with that much of a bust potential. It could definitely work out, but obviously, the higher the price, the more the downside, the less the upside.

EDIT: The other big downside for him is his platoon splits. He could easily end up on the weak side of his platoon. That probably wouldn't affect the steals that much (platoon guys get tons of pinch-running appearances), but the HR would probably suffer (although they might not given his lack of power from the left side), and the RBI/Runs would definitely suffer.

Looking back, maybe it was positive hyperbole. If he comes back up at some point (which is likely barring injury), maybe he'll hit well enough to get the average up to .175.