12 tm AL Only keeper help

[Teenwolf]

Traditional 5x5, except this is the 1st year we switch from Saves to [Saves (1) + Holds (1)]. Should level the RP market, shifting dollars from closers to top MR.

Last year was my 5th title in 14 years.

10 major league keepers, 10 farm spots.

Mondesi $5C ($15/'21 or $20/'22)
Snell $6C (likely $16/'21)
Clevenger $1C (likely $11/'21)
Berrios $5C (likely $10/'20)
LeClerc $3B
M. Smith $16C (Likely $16X)
D. Jansen $5A (should have waited to promote... burned 1 year, oh well... 2 catcher league gives him extra scarcity value)
Voit $3B
Brantley $19B
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TOP 9 are pretty indisputable, I think.

Stroman $15X (or CUT for $8 penalty)
D. Fowler $5A
Skaggs $5B
S. Greene $1C (without the premium save cost, he's not worth a keeper spot in this format)
C. Green $2C
M. Straw $3B
M. Boyd $2C
T. Buttrey $3B

FARM (all $5)

Y. Alvarez - 1B/OF - HOU
M. Chavis - 3B - BOS
A. Baddoo - OF - MIN
W. Franco - SS - TB
L. Armenteros - OF - OAK

I post this because I'm considering a trade. I deal Berrios + Skaggs + Green for 2nd overall farm pick + AJ Puk. Currently, my 5 picks are #13, #36, #37, #60, #61. So I'd swap the 60 & 61 for Puk & 2nd overall. Worth it? The issue I have is that Fowler replaces Berrios in my top 9... but then who do I bump to #10?

Buttrey is a decent bullpen gamble, Straw is a decent SB gamble (but I don't need SB with Mallex/Mondesi), Boyd is solid but low ceiling and low W, and Stroman I have to think could be acquired under $15 in the draft on a fresh contract, despite the annoying cut fee.

[joncarlos]

Personally I really like Skaggs. Would maybe consider cutting Stro and essentially paying $13 for Skaggs.

I also really like Berrios so I don't see the need to trade him for farm help.

[Hornsby]

Yeah, I don't think that your pitching is strong enough to withstand losing Barrios...Puk is a great prospect, but coming off TJ. And I don't see a must have prospect at #2...

[cavebird]

I agree with the consensus. Cut Stroman, keep Skaggs, decline the trade.

[Redbirds Fan]

Totally agree. Keep Skaggs and Berrios. Great list.

[Ken]

Should level the RP market, shifting dollars from closers to top MR.

I wonder if this is the case?

My gut instinct would be that with S+H, the relief market flattens out to where you have an abundance of pitchers who are all very similar, reducing the relative value of all of them.

In which case I'd almost punt them until dollar days and reallocate that money to starters and hitting where my $s can actually buy me reliable stats over replacement.

[joncarlos]

I wonder if this is the case?

My gut instinct would be that with S+H, the relief market flattens out to where you have an abundance of pitchers who are all very similar, reducing the relative value of all of them.

In which case I'd almost punt them until dollar days and reallocate that money to starters and hitting where my $s can actually buy me reliable stats over replacement.

The top closers will get more saves than the top holds guys, so I would think they're still a little more valuable than setup guys. But everyone used to standard roto will probably overpay closers even more than that, so I guess I agree.

[Ken]

The top closers will get more saves than the top holds guys, so I would think they're still a little more valuable than setup guys. But everyone used to standard roto will probably overpay closers even more than that, so I guess I agree.

Lets look at last years' data in the AL. Assuming 2 RP per team the 25th best relief pitcher would give you 7 saves. And the top 24 relievers gave you ~330 extra saves compared to replacement. Diaz was worth 50 extra saves which is the obvious one-off, with 17% of those extra saves in the market. Kimbrel and Treinen were worth 35 and 31 (~10%). Then you have a tier of 8 closers with~15-25 extra (7%), and a cluster with ~5-10 extra saves (4%), followed by a cluster with ~5 extra saves (2% of the market).

Switching from saves to solds, Diaz is still on top with 57 total, but replacement level moves to 24 solds. The incremental extra solds add up to only ~170. Diaz is now worth 33 extra solds (19% of the market). And then there's a drop off to Kimbrel/Colome/Alvarado/Trienen at 14-18 extra (10%). There's a tier of 6 pitchers with ~10 extra solds (5%). And then everyone else is < 2% of the market share on extra solds.

Below replacement, with solds there are another 11 pitchers within 5 solds of replacmenet.

Solds is a much, much flatter than saves at the bottom end of the curve, and there will be much more available in FAAB if you have an injury.

I can see possibly getting one of the third tier names, but then after that its really all the same (i.e. $1).

I think solds is going to come down to how many relief pitchers you started every week, not which ones you had.

[Teenwolf]

Lets look at last years' data in the AL. Assuming 2 RP per team the 25th best relief pitcher would give you 7 saves. And the top 24 relievers gave you ~330 extra saves compared to replacement. Diaz was worth 50 extra saves which is the obvious one-off, with 17% of those extra saves in the market. Kimbrel and Treinen were worth 35 and 31 (~10%). Then you have a tier of 8 closers with~15-25 extra (7%), and a cluster with ~5-10 extra saves (4%), followed by a cluster with ~5 extra saves (2% of the market).

Switching from saves to solds, Diaz is still on top with 57 total, but replacement level moves to 24 solds. The incremental extra solds add up to only ~170. Diaz is now worth 33 extra solds (19% of the market). And then there's a drop off to Kimbrel/Colome/Alvarado/Trienen at 14-18 extra (10%). There's a tier of 6 pitchers with ~10 extra solds (5%). And then everyone else is < 2% of the market share on extra solds.

Below replacement, with solds there are another 11 pitchers within 5 solds of replacmenet.

Solds is a much, much flatter than saves at the bottom end of the curve, and there will be much more available in FAAB if you have an injury.

I can see possibly getting one of the third tier names, but then after that its really all the same (i.e. $1).

I think solds is going to come down to how many relief pitchers you started every week, not which ones you had.

Thanks for the in-depth look. I think the purpose of the rule change was to eliminate the value of crappy guys who happen to collect saves in favour of reward system that was closer to real life. I believe MLB is starting to view the save as more of a driver for pre-arb salaries as opposed to a true indicator of value, therefore incentivizing clubs to use veterans instead of young stud relievers. This is how Archie Bradley is still a setup guy, they didn't want to blow up his salary.

Diminishing the need to follow the politics of the closer role is something I look forward to. Skills not roles will be more prevalent than ever.