2k19: German Marquez

[joncarlos]

OK, so the consensus is that we're mostly out on Kyle Freeland. How about his helium-filled teammate?

Overall 2018 stats: 196 IP, 3.77 ERA, 14-11, 1.20 WHIP, 230 Ks, 1.10 HR/9, .311 BABIP
Indicators/skills: 10.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 (28.2% K rate and 7% walk rate), 3.40 FIP/3.10 xFIP, 15.7% HR/FB, 1.59 G/F with 47/30/23 GB/FB/LD

2018 first half: 103 IP, 4.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 106 K
2018 second half: 93 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 124 K

That's a big jump in Ks in the second half, in addition to the much improved ratios.

Projections:

THE BAT: 188 IP, 4.15 ERA, 15 W, 197 K, 1.28 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
ATC: 187 IP, 3.85 ERA, 13 W, 202 K, 1.25 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
Steamer: 190 IP, 3.88 ERA, 13 W, 207 K, 1.24 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
ZiPS: 191 IP, 3.82 ERA, 15 W, 208 K, 1.23 WHIP, 9.8 K/9

Those all look pretty similar. He had an 8.2 K/9 in 2017 so at least everyone expects him to hold most of the growth in Ks.

I'm hesitant to go against the wisdom of the crowds but I think he's more in the 3.5 to 3.6 ERA range.

Draft info, ADP for NFBC online leagues since 2/1:

P23. Greinke ADP 67
P25. Berrios, ADP 71
P28. Bumgarner, ADP 76
P30. Z Wheeler, ADP 78
P32. Marquez, ADP 81
P34. Foltynewicz, ADP 93
P35. Mikolas, ADP 94
P37. Price, ADP 99
P39. L Castillo, ADP 110

I like Marquez about the same as Wheeler. I'd probably take both over Bumgarner but that's just me. Then again I'd at least think about Price over Marquez. Mikolas is a tough comp, if my SP1 was a high K guy I'd consider Mikolas but if I needed the Ks I'd easily take Marquez.

[senorsheep]

Spot on. In my league format (NL-only 4x4, K's instead of WHIP), I'd take him before Bumgarner and Mikolas without blinking. If you're willing to gamble on a Rockies starter in your league, Marquez is the one to get. I don't even consider him that much of a gamble - I believe his raw talent will largely trump the Coors factor. Your competition will likely avoid him or wait on him. Don't be afraid. Grab him.

[Judge Jude]

I'd be in if he was available. I think he figured out his pitch selection, especially his slider, in the second half.

he just turned 24 a few days ago. as senorsheep says, grab him.

[revo]

I'm passing on him. I look at Rockies pitchers like I do platoon hitters -- you may be forced to abandon half their starts.

His career stats:

Home
4.51 ERA
1.35 WHIP

Away
3.75 ERA
1.25 WHIP

He does strike out almost the same rate home or away, but still, he's killing your ratios with every home start (and not even really helping on the road). I'll let someone else enjoy this.

[TS Garp]

See Jon Gray's 2018 season for why I won't be reaching for Marquez this year. His upside is tantalizing but there doesn't seem to be much -- if any -- discount based on his park and the situation is just too volatile for me to take him as a #2 starter. Interestingly, I actually think Gray could be the better value this year.

[senorsheep]

I'm passing on him. I look at Rockies pitchers like I do platoon hitters -- you may be forced to abandon half their starts.

His career stats:

Home
4.51 ERA
1.35 WHIP

Away
3.75 ERA
1.25 WHIP

He does strike out almost the same rate home or away, but still, he's killing your ratios with every home start (and not even really helping on the road). I'll let someone else enjoy this.

If you look at how he progressed from 2017 to 2018, and then from the start of 2018 to the end of 2018, I think you'll get a more accurate indication of what 2019 can be than you get by just looking at his aggregated career stats.

[revo]

If you look at how he progressed from 2017 to 2018, and then from the start of 2018 to the end of 2018, I think you'll get a more accurate indication of what 2019 can be than you get by just looking at his aggregated career stats.

Well, his 2018 splits are even more defined:

Home
4.74 ERA
1.47 WHIP

Away
2.95 ERA
0.98 WHIP

He did pitch extremely well -- home or away -- in August & September (which means he must have gotten really beaten up at home earlier in the season). But like we discussed in another thread, there has only been one COL pitcher who has strung together two consecutive above-average seasons. Maybe Marquez has figured out Coors, but I'm not taking that risk. The trends are strong. And if he gets as battered at home as he did in the early part of last season, many fantasy owners are going to be reaching for the ripcord pretty quickly.

[senorsheep]

See Jon Gray's 2018 season for why I won't be reaching for Marquez this year. His upside is tantalizing but there doesn't seem to be much -- if any -- discount based on his park and the situation is just too volatile for me to take him as a #2 starter. Interestingly, I actually think Gray could be the better value this year.

German Marquez is not John Gray. While the two have similar physical talents, they each demonstrated a very different mental makeup in 2018. When Gray got roughed up a little last year, his approach changed noticeably, for the worse - his aggression evaporated, he started nibbling, he fell behind in counts, and then he got clobbered when he was forced to pitch from behind. I didn't see that at all from Marquez - he can get emotional when the going gets tough, but he doesn't fall apart or lose focus. I know we tend to discount or dismiss those types of eyeball observations around here, but I'm telling you, these are two different animals.

[TS Garp]

He put up amazing number in September despite a .366 BABIP which is very encouraging. I just can't pull the trigger on him where he's going (and I expect his ADP to rise as we get closer to Opening Day).

[senorsheep]

Well, his 2018 splits are even more defined:

Home
4.74 ERA
1.47 WHIP

Away
2.95 ERA
0.98 WHIP

He did pitch extremely well -- home or away -- in August & September (which means he must have gotten really beaten up at home earlier in the season). But like we discussed in another thread, there has only been one COL pitcher who has strung together two consecutive above-average seasons. Maybe Marquez has figured out Coors, but I'm not taking that risk. The trends are strong. And if he gets as battered at home as he did in the early part of last season, many fantasy owners are going to be reaching for the ripcord pretty quickly.

Ubaldo Jimenez is a good argument for not taking the risk. There have been guys have seemed to figure out pitching in Colorado, and then lost the mojo and never got it back. The back-and-forth from altitude to sea level can definitely mess with a pitcher's mechanics and confidence - Rockies' starters are not for the faint of heart.

[joncarlos]

Ubaldo Jimenez is a good argument for not taking the risk. There have been guys have seemed to figure out pitching in Colorado, and then lost the mojo and never got it back. The back-and-forth from altitude to sea level can definitely mess with a pitcher's mechanics and confidence - Rockies' starters are not for the faint of heart.

Do you think there's anything to the whole "Freeland grew up in Denver and is used to the altitude" thing?

[senorsheep]

Do you think there's anything to the whole "Freeland grew up in Denver and is used to the altitude" thing?

It's probably one piece of the puzzle, but pitching here is such a huge, complicated puzzle, it's hard to say how much of a factor one piece really is. I'm sure there's some advantage to having years of practice throwing pitches that are effective at altitude. I think the greater trick is being able to go back and forth between and altitude and sea level, and constantly adjust your pitch selection, grips, and location while keeping your basic mechanics consistent... you almost have to master being two different successful major league pitchers simultaneously. How many pitchers can manage to be just one consistently successful MLB pitcher for any length of time?

It really does seem like an almost impossible challenge, which is why, as revo points out, it has rarely been done for more than a single season. It's way too early to say if Freeland has figured it out. More talented pitchers have tried and failed, but he does seem to have the awareness and mental toughness to flip back and forth from Coors starter to road starter. Plus, he does have a great pitching mind (Buddy Black) in his corner for backup. If/when Freeland puts up a third consecutive solid season, then I might start believing he's really on to something.

[cavebird]

German Marquez is not John Gray. While the two have similar physical talents, they each demonstrated a very different mental makeup in 2018. When Gray got roughed up a little last year, his approach changed noticeably, for the worse - his aggression evaporated, he started nibbling, he fell behind in counts, and then he got clobbered when he was forced to pitch from behind. I didn't see that at all from Marquez - he can get emotional when the going gets tough, but he doesn't fall apart or lose focus. I know we tend to discount or dismiss those types of eyeball observations around here, but I'm telling you, these are two different animals.

Well, I think that depends. If you are saying that they are two separate individual animals, that would be correct. If you are saying they are two different types of animals, you are incorrect as they are both humans. Now, since you are a sheep, it would be different if you compared them to you.

[cavebird]

It's probably one piece of the puzzle, but pitching here is such a huge, complicated puzzle, it's hard to say how much of a factor one piece really is. I'm sure there's some advantage to having years of practice throwing pitches that are effective at altitude. I think the greater trick is being able to go back and forth between and altitude and sea level, and constantly adjust your pitch selection, grips, and location while keeping your basic mechanics consistent... you almost have to master being two different successful major league pitchers simultaneously. How many pitchers can manage to be just one consistently successful MLB pitcher for any length of time?

It really does seem like an almost impossible challenge, which is why, as revo points out, it has rarely been done for more than a single season. It's way too early to say if Freeland has figured it out. More talented pitchers have tried and failed, but he does seem to have the awareness and mental toughness to flip back and forth from Coors starter to road starter. Plus, he does have a great pitching mind (Buddy Black) in his corner for backup. If/when Freeland puts up a third consecutive solid season, then I might start believing he's really on to something.

This is one of the three reasons I stay away from Colorado pitchers. The other two are: (1) I was a Gray victim last year and (2) the problem is given the park, even a good Colorado pitcher will usually hurt your ratios because leagues use ERA and WHIP instead of FIP and x-FIP. To me, the ultimate Rockies style pitcher (pre-humidor) was Pedro Astacio. He had a great attitude about not worrying about how many runs he gave up so long as the game was competitive and the Rockies had a chance to win. He had 17 wins and 7 (!!) complete games in 1999, despite an ERA of 5.04 and giving up a league leading 38 (!!) home runs.

[senorsheep]

This is one of the three reasons I stay away from Colorado pitchers. The other two are: (1) I was a Gray victim last year and (2) the problem is given the park, even a good Colorado pitcher will usually hurt your ratios because leagues use ERA and WHIP instead of FIP and x-FIP. To me, the ultimate Rockies style pitcher (pre-humidor) was Pedro Astacio. He had a great attitude about not worrying about how many runs he gave up so long as the game was competitive and the Rockies had a chance to win. He had 17 wins and 7 (!!) complete games in 1999, despite an ERA of 5.04 and giving up a league leading 38 (!!) home runs.

My league uses K's instead of WHIP, so I should check my bias. In a WHIP league, I'd certainly downgrade him.

So true about Pedro Astacio - he'd give up a 479-foot bomb and go back to work on the next batter like nothing happened. I wish we could copy and paste his mental makeup into Jon Gray.