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The Universal Question

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  • The Universal Question

    You want a player very badly. How far outside the box (ADP) or (Auction$) are you willing to go to land him?

    ie: Vlad Guerrero Jr. is the next TEN tool player. He is being drafted in the 46-48 range in many leagues. (8-15 teams)

    Would you venture into the 3rd round, to capture this nugget? Conversely, a player you did not want has dropped well below his advertised value (ADP). How far does he need to fall, for you to jump on the perceived + value.

    The veterans on this forum will surely be able, to add some valuable insight.

  • #2
    Redraft or keeper/dynasty?

    Comment


    • #3
      Welcome to the forum. The answer depends greatly on the situation.

      J
      Ad Astra per Aspera

      Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

      GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

      Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

      I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude

      Comment


      • #4
        In an auction, I generally go into the draft with a position-based budget (e.g., how much for 1B, how much for my top two OFs, how much for SP ace, how much for closer), and then try to keep track of any savings against my budget as the auction progresses so that I can either use that "savings" to bid higher than my target price for a player I really like, or plan to upgrade another position on the fly. If I know that I haven't realized savings yet, or that I've already had to overspend my projection (because, say, all of the SP aces went for $5-10 over my projection so I overspent already to get one), then I will try very hard to resist getting caught up in a bidding war on a favorite target. If I know I have savings and I know that's who I want for that slot, however, I'll be willing to chase.

        In my last NBA draft, for example, I really wanted D'Andre Ayton, and had him valued $24. But my guard targets all fell to me early and cheaper than I had budgeted, and big men were going above my price targets. I went to $37 on Ayton, because I knew I had saved at least $13 against my budget targets across Harden, Beal and Butler.

        Comment


        • #5
          It depends. Do you want the player for a rational reason? Like, you think Vladito is going .330-30-110 this year? And your projections put that as the 8th best hitter?

          Or, like, you just think Vladito is cool and want to own him?

          I saw someone was working on a distribution tool. So if you look at all the Vladito picks that were made and it looks like:

          1% of the time he was picked by pick 12
          10% of the time he was picked by pick 20
          25% of the time he was picked by pick 30
          40% of the time he was picked by pick 35
          70% of the time he was picked by pick 40
          90% of the time he was picked by pick 50

          I probably wouldn't go above the 25% line unless I had real solid projections saying I should. Just because you think Vlad will earn it doesn't mean you have to pay it.

          Think about a more extreme example. A time traveler comes back from the future and tells you that Cole Tucker is going to hit .310 with 50 steals and 15 HR this year. His ADP is, I dunno, 600. Your valuations put that as the 20th best hitter. You certainly wouldn't take him in the 3rd round. But you'd be absolutely sure to grab him before his earliest pick.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by onejayhawk View Post
            Welcome to the forum. The answer depends greatly on the situation.

            J
            Yes it does.

            Welcome Hawk.

            A lot depends on how you enjoy the game. What makes the game fun for you. How much enjoyment to you get out of watching your team. Is winning a championship first and foremost.

            I like my Cubs, but in the scope of our game I am not overpaying for them beyond our normal inflation. I play the game first.

            Vlad is unique in that he can be both. All below assumes a keeper league. Redraft is much different.

            If I was in a semi rebuilding mode, I am reaching for Vlad early. If I am in a shallow league I am reaching for Vlad early as I can get good players later. If I have a great team going in I will have to forgo Vlad to draft/buy what I need to win this year. Even then I would have to consider the trade value I could get if I grabbed him early.

            The real question is how early and that depends on how many Betts, or Trouts are ahead of him. If I was in a keeper draft, I am taking him early enough to make sure I get him.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by joncarlos View Post
              It depends. Do you want the player for a rational reason? Like, you think Vladito is going .330-30-110 this year? And your projections put that as the 8th best hitter?
              Think about a more extreme example. A time traveler comes back from the future and tells you that Cole Tucker is going to hit .310 with 50 steals and 15 HR this year. His ADP is, I dunno, 600. Your valuations put that as the 20th best hitter. You certainly wouldn't take him in the 3rd round. But you'd be absolutely sure to grab him before his earliest pick.
              :Scribbles a note: "JC knows something. Move up Cole Tucker."

              Comment


              • #8
                On the flip side - the player you don't like who has fallen far below ADP or projected auction value, it depends why you didn't like/want him. If you don't like him because of injury risk/history, how much injury risk are you carrying with the players you've already drafted/bought? You can take a few calculated injury risks across your 24-man roster, but you don't want to take on seven guys who are questionable for Opening Day or who miss a month every year. If you don't like him because of bad pitching ratios or bad batting average, again, what does the rest of your build look like, and how much opportunity will you have with your remaining roster spots to mitigate that one bad stat. If you have or can build a roster that mitigates that risk, then go ahead and grab the player who has dropped well below value.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Thanks guys...some awesome reply and takes...This new league I'm in is a roto 15 team draft with NO trades....I've been playing since the early 80's...always auctions, so the draft is a slightly different animal for me.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Sounds like a redraft.

                    In a keeper league of any kind you take Guerrero somewhere in the early part of the 1st round.

                    In a redraft, my answer is going to be different. While Guerrero is potentially the next superstar, he's still just 20 years old, and the odds are that he doesn't reach all of that potential immediately. The huge upside is already baked into his 4th round price, so if you are buying above that price you are really saying there will be no learning curve. Which, while possible, seems unlikely.

                    I'd also be careful mentioning Vlad having all the tools, at least from a fantasy perspective, because he's not likely to run much. Unlike Acuna last year, where you had that floor knowing he'd pitch in with SB, if Vlad struggles some, the floor is quite a bit lower.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Ken:

                      I was just joking about the 10 tool talent....This type of hyperbole goes back to 50's with Paul Petit in the Hollywood Stars' glory days. This is not a keeper league BTW..One & Done

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Yeah in redraft you are giving up a lot of draft capital on hope if you go before the ~mid-late 3rd round. If you are on the 3/4 turn I'd consider it since you wont pick again until 5/6 where he'll always be long gone.

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                        • #13
                          I believe in redraft leagues that many times the old still successful player will likely payoff over the next big thing - many of the next big things take a few years

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by The Dane View Post
                            :Scribbles a note: "JC knows something. Move up Cole Tucker."
                            Made me at least go read up on him.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Roy Hobbs View Post
                              Made me at least go read up on him.
                              In your 1950-2000 sports almanac?

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