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I've somehow managed to get multiple shares of Freeland already this season. He has the whole "born in Denver, so maybe the altitude doesn't bother him" thing going on. I don't expect him to repeat last year but maybe he's being discounted too much? Or maybe he was a typical soft tosser who is due for a massive regression. (Average fastball was 91.6 last year). His projections are certainly ugly.
2018 stats: 202.1ip, 17-7, 2.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 173 Ks.
A K/9 of 7.7 doesn't blow anyone away. A 3.67 FIP and 4.22 xFIP aren't bad, but they're more indicative of how he pitched than that 2.85 ERA. The ERA also doesn't really match the 1.25 WHIP. He had a .285 BABIP and 0.76 HR/9 with a 46% ground ball rate. Coors isn't the homer haven it used to be, but BABIP still runs very high there.
For whatever it's worth, he had 93.2 IP with a 2.40 ERA / 1.17 WHIP at home, and 108.2 IP with a 3.23 ERA / 1.31 WHIP on the road. You can say "he beat Coors and that's repeatable" or you can say "yeesh, if he posts a "normal" 4.30 ERA at Coors and the same road numbers, he'll look a lot worse."
Projections:
The BAT: 197ip, 4.12 ERA, 163 K, 1.34 WHIP
ATC: 184ip, 4.41 ERA, 149 K, 1.39 WHIP
Steamer: 195ip, 4.62 ERA, 162 K, 1. 43 WHIP
Rankings:
Ranked 43rd on Sporer's top 120 SPs
Ranked 35th on The Pitcher List's top 100 SPs
For NFBC Draft Champions leagues, 15 teams, since 1/1/19, he's the 59th pitcher off the board. Probably 15 of those are relievers.
55. Bieber
56. Pivetta
57. E-Rod
58. Darvish
59. Freeland
60. Heaney
61. Porcello
I'd probably take Heaney over him, but I think that Freeland/Heaney/Porcello grouping has him pretty well nailed. I know I've heard someone say that Freeland probably has some upside in his K rate.
If I were to project I'd probably go slightly better than The BAT, something like 200ip, 3.70 ERA, 180 K, 1.28 WHIP
2018 stats: 202.1ip, 17-7, 2.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 173 Ks.
A K/9 of 7.7 doesn't blow anyone away. A 3.67 FIP and 4.22 xFIP aren't bad, but they're more indicative of how he pitched than that 2.85 ERA. The ERA also doesn't really match the 1.25 WHIP. He had a .285 BABIP and 0.76 HR/9 with a 46% ground ball rate. Coors isn't the homer haven it used to be, but BABIP still runs very high there.
For whatever it's worth, he had 93.2 IP with a 2.40 ERA / 1.17 WHIP at home, and 108.2 IP with a 3.23 ERA / 1.31 WHIP on the road. You can say "he beat Coors and that's repeatable" or you can say "yeesh, if he posts a "normal" 4.30 ERA at Coors and the same road numbers, he'll look a lot worse."
Projections:
The BAT: 197ip, 4.12 ERA, 163 K, 1.34 WHIP
ATC: 184ip, 4.41 ERA, 149 K, 1.39 WHIP
Steamer: 195ip, 4.62 ERA, 162 K, 1. 43 WHIP
Rankings:
Ranked 43rd on Sporer's top 120 SPs
Ranked 35th on The Pitcher List's top 100 SPs
For NFBC Draft Champions leagues, 15 teams, since 1/1/19, he's the 59th pitcher off the board. Probably 15 of those are relievers.
55. Bieber
56. Pivetta
57. E-Rod
58. Darvish
59. Freeland
60. Heaney
61. Porcello
I'd probably take Heaney over him, but I think that Freeland/Heaney/Porcello grouping has him pretty well nailed. I know I've heard someone say that Freeland probably has some upside in his K rate.
If I were to project I'd probably go slightly better than The BAT, something like 200ip, 3.70 ERA, 180 K, 1.28 WHIP
Those taking him as SP35 which is a middle of the road SP3 might need a little more out of him.
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