Longterm: R. Lewis or W. Franco

[kldub4life]

Longterm: R. Lewis or W. Franco

Lewis is slightly higher ranked and his speed seems to be elite but I'm thinking Franco's bat has more upside. What say you Junkies?

[mjl]

dunno what your sources are, but Keith Law has Franco 3 and Lewis 9, Fangraphs has Franco 2 and Lewis 6.

[kldub4life]

dunno what your sources are, but Keith Law has Franco 3 and Lewis 9, Fangraphs has Franco 2 and Lewis 6.

I was looking at MLB Pipeline most recently.

[Sour Masher]

You gotta look at offensive potential. Lewis has a good shot of staying at SS whereas Franco doesn't. That inflates Lewis's prospect rankings on many lists. It isn't like Franco is not a great athlete himself, with significant defense value of his own--he has all of that, but Lewis has a defensive value edge. However, the difference in their offensive potential is more pronounced that most current rankings indicate. Franco is still so young and so far away, so there is more risk with him. But if you built a prospect in a lab, he'd look a lot like Franco. His ceiling is top 5 player in baseball. Lewis is very good himself, but his ceiling is top 5 SS in baseball. Lewis is a fine get, but this isn't close to me. Franco all the way for roto/fantasy purposes.

[Teenwolf]

I own Wander Franco in 2 leagues. It's interesting. I always value the elite SB prospects more highly if they have the secondary skills to play full-time. Lewis seems to fit the bill to a tee, but I still wouldn't deal Franco straight up for Lewis, even though I see a higher likelihood for a $40+ player. I've never really owned a generational talent like Franco as a prospect before (other than Juan Soto 2 years ago), but I've seen so many other generational talents that have been kept for 6-7 years in some leagues, and rarely do they escape a long term extension keeping them entirely unavailable to draft for 6-7 years. Trout, Lindor, Bregman, Correa, etc, have all been clung to by their owners, sometimes dealt only in their 6th or 7th years. So there's some players that are just kind of untouchable, as the FOMO of missing out on a legendary player is too strong. Lewis's SB might elevate his value, possibly above Franco, but the legendary prospect status of Franco is too strong to mess with.

If Franco turns into a 70 bat, 55 power, 50 speed big leaguer, and Lewis turns into a 55 bat, 50 power, 65 speed big leaguer... it's tough to see Franco's bat edge and small power edge (likely, who knows), overcompensating for the likely 30-40 SB that Lewis is likely to nab in his first several seasons, and likely negligible SB from Franco...

If I was offered Lewis and a strong 2nd piece, I'd have a hard time saying no. But I'd probably say no for anything but "the moon and the stars".

[onejayhawk]

I decided to acquire both of them and see who won out.

J

[Sharky]

How soon until Franco is up?

[Ken]

How soon until Franco is up?

He's 17 years old still. If EVERYTHING falls right, you're hoping to having him coming into spring training vying for a chance at a job in 3 years.

[Gregg]

He's 17 years old still. If EVERYTHING falls right, you're hoping to having him coming into spring training vying for a chance at a job in 3 years.

I have read somewhere that he could be up at 19.

[Teenwolf]

I have read somewhere that he could be up at 19.

I agree in theory, but the Rays never push their prospects quickly. We will see this year in full season ball. If he dominates, I'm interested to see the pace of promotions.

[Sour Masher]

I agree in theory, but the Rays never push their prospects quickly. We will see this year in full season ball. If he dominates, I'm interested to see the pace of promotions.

Yeah, they take their time. It will be hard to hold him back, but j that organization, I'd be shock if he gets a major league AB as a teenager.

[Teenwolf]

Yeah, they take their time. It will be hard to hold him back, but j that organization, I'd be shock if he gets a major league AB as a teenager.

I'm generally in the conservative mindset with prospects too... I disagreed with promoting Juan Soto given his sparse minor league experience, but some guys can handle the jump.

With such a cost-conscious org, I think the only way Franco sees the bigs before May 2021 is if he signs the type of premature big-league deal (Longoria, Singleton, Kingery) that avoids service time manipulation. Longoria shows it's a possibility, but they won't force the issue.

[joncarlos]

The thing about Franco is that the whole system may be blown up by the new CBA. What if teams have control until a player is 27, with preset salaries or something? Then there's no need to hold him back. What if teams get knocked down to only 4 years of control before FA? Then you better believe he'll get held down till he's 110% baked.

[Sour Masher]

The thing about Franco is that the whole system may be blown up by the new CBA. What if teams have control until a player is 27, with preset salaries or something? Then there's no need to hold him back. What if teams get knocked down to only 4 years of control before FA? Then you better believe he'll get held down till he's 110% baked.

I hadn't thought of this negative consequence to reducing the number of years of control. I do think something needs to happen, as it takes too long for young elite players to see a payday that fits their production.

[cavebird]

I'm generally in the conservative mindset with prospects too... I disagreed with promoting Juan Soto given his sparse minor league experience, but some guys can handle the jump.

With such a cost-conscious org, I think the only way Franco sees the bigs before May 2021 is if he signs the type of premature big-league deal (Longoria, Singleton, Kingery) that avoids service time manipulation. Longoria shows it's a possibility, but they won't force the issue.

I think it all depends. The Rays have said that they will promote him this year until he faces adversity because they want him to deal with that before the big league level---(and I am paraphrasing something I read here, probably your prospect people at FG)---He's basically always been the best player on the field every game he has ever played. Conservative organizations will be less conservative if a player is just too good to do anything else.