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Just started reading this site since the writer was on a podcast with Sporer and I think his writeups are really interesting. I had just read http://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball...ers-draft-2019 on ESPN and he talked about how Bieber and Bundy's BABIPs indicated that things would get better, and I remembered reading this, from https://www.pitcherlist.com/top-60-s...tasy-baseball/ :
45. Shane Bieber (Cleveland Indians) — If Shane Bieber plays at his 3.23 FIP, he’s the steal of the draft! Hey everyone, welcome to today’s edition of Don’t Mind the Gap as we talk about ERA & DIPS gaps, why they happen, and why you should generally avoid this foundation for your analysis. Yes, Bieber probably was unlucky last year as a 4.55 ERA will most likely drop significantly as he held a .356 BABIP and sub-70% LOB rate (the 12.1% HR/FB rate seems normal). Let’s understand that BABIP, though. Bieber is a strike-thrower to a ridiculous fault. His four-seamer found the zone 62.4% of the time, induced a sub-20% O-Swing, and allowed contact over 88% of the time. The latter two marks are especially bad when that high contact returned a .306 BAA and .196 ISO — plenty of damage for a pitch thrown over a thousand times — though you may be thinking his high zone-rate is a good thing. It is — if you’re hitting the corners. Bieber’s 93 mph fastball did not. It was crushed a ton as a result and a is major reason why you should take his expected BABIP regression with a grain of salt. Bieber should probably hold a sub-10 H/9, but if he continues to throw heaters this poorly, it will still be higher than most, along with his BABIP. There is good news, though: I believe there is a cure. It’s incredibly abnormal and you may think I’m crazy — Bieber needs to throw fewer strikes. Bieber held opponents to 0 ER in 50% of the starts he allowed two walks (3 out of 6) and held opponents to 0 ER just 7.5% of the time in games with 1 or 0 walks (1 out of 13). That’s significant to me. The man needs to nibble! In addition, he has two strong secondary pitches in his slider (53% O-Swing, 44.5% Zone rate, 26% swinging-strike rate, absolute money and he doesn’t even know it) and curveball (14.5% swinging-strike rate, 40.5% O-Swing) that should find their ways outside the zone more often as well, helping Bieber nullify the hittable of his fastball. This is a big ask of Bieber, though. There’s a lot of grooming and polishing needed to get to that point, and while I do believe he’ll get there eventually, I’d feel better if his curveball (or maybe even changeup!) were a stronger third option like those in the rest of the Indians’ rotation. There will be a lot of frustration as Bieber will continue to hold an inflated BABIP, but we’re getting to that point of shrugs and you may as well chase Bieber with his 30% strikeout upside. This is an awfully negative write-up for someone that you’re pretty even — if not slightly high! — on relative to the field. That’s just how it is sometimes. I blame the SP landscape.
- Wonderboy
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