Would you be happy with his overall 2018 numbers if you picked Albies this year? I suspect you would.
Last year (overall): 684pa, 261/305/452, 24 HR, 105 R, 72 RBI, 14 SB. A 5.3% walk rate and a 17% K rate. Only a .285 BABIP. 40 doubles.
Last year (first half): .281, 20 HR, 9 steals in 93 games
Last year (second half): .226, 4 HR, 5 steals in 64 games
His Fangraphs hard hit rate was only 34.3%. His HR/FB was only 11.5% which might be repeatable.
Steamer has him at 633 PA, 274/324/449 with 19 HR and 16 steals, betting on an improved BABIP.
His overall exit velocity was not good (average of 86.3 MPH) which would put him in the bottom 25%. His percent of balls hit 95 MPH or better is similarly low. He pulls the ball a lot, and doesn't hit it on the ground all that much. For all his speed, expecting a big jump in BABIP might not work out.
For me the question is the speed. He was never a huge base stealer in the minors but his sprint speed (exactly the same as Cutch) is about the 85th percentile.
If you figure he's going to hit .270 with 16-18 HR, then he needs 20 steals to pay off.
NFBC ADP since 1/1 puts him as the 4th 2B off the board, average pick of 54.8. There really aren't many comparable 2Bs.
3-Merrifield (32nd)
4-Albies (55th)
5-Gleyber (63rd)
6-Villar (71st)
7-Murphy (80th)
Even looking for similar hitters, there aren't a ton:
38-Starling Marte
41-Mondesi
48-Boegarts
52-Albies
60-Lo Cain
65-Segura
68-Dahl
Last year (overall): 684pa, 261/305/452, 24 HR, 105 R, 72 RBI, 14 SB. A 5.3% walk rate and a 17% K rate. Only a .285 BABIP. 40 doubles.
Last year (first half): .281, 20 HR, 9 steals in 93 games
Last year (second half): .226, 4 HR, 5 steals in 64 games
His Fangraphs hard hit rate was only 34.3%. His HR/FB was only 11.5% which might be repeatable.
Steamer has him at 633 PA, 274/324/449 with 19 HR and 16 steals, betting on an improved BABIP.
His overall exit velocity was not good (average of 86.3 MPH) which would put him in the bottom 25%. His percent of balls hit 95 MPH or better is similarly low. He pulls the ball a lot, and doesn't hit it on the ground all that much. For all his speed, expecting a big jump in BABIP might not work out.
For me the question is the speed. He was never a huge base stealer in the minors but his sprint speed (exactly the same as Cutch) is about the 85th percentile.
If you figure he's going to hit .270 with 16-18 HR, then he needs 20 steals to pay off.
NFBC ADP since 1/1 puts him as the 4th 2B off the board, average pick of 54.8. There really aren't many comparable 2Bs.
3-Merrifield (32nd)
4-Albies (55th)
5-Gleyber (63rd)
6-Villar (71st)
7-Murphy (80th)
Even looking for similar hitters, there aren't a ton:
38-Starling Marte
41-Mondesi
48-Boegarts
52-Albies
60-Lo Cain
65-Segura
68-Dahl
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