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Thread: 2k19: Andrew McCutchen

  1. #1
    All Star joncarlos's Avatar
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    2k19: Andrew McCutchen

    Hard to be objective on this one since he's my favorite player. I was susprised to see that his sprint speed (28.7 Ft/Sec) was in the 85th percentile last year, as the general impression is that he's slowed down. Also noteworthy that his home to first times (on baseball savant) were more like in the 50th percentile. Not sure how much of that is being right-handed and how much is that what he's lost is his FIRST step.

    2018 stats: 682pa, 255/368/424, 20 HR, 14 SB, 83 R, 65 RBI. 13.9% BB rate and 21.3% K rate.

    If you look at his splits, he hit 255/357/415 with 15 HR in 130 games for the Giants, and 253/421/471 with 5 HR in 25 games for the Yankees. Getting the hell out of AT&T Park clearly agreed with him.

    Hard hit rate on Fangraphs was actually way up, fly ball % was down just a bit and HR/FB was down just a bit, but right in line with 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016.

    Average exit velo was 90 which is just about the 75th percentile. Max was "only" 110.9 which is a little lower than some comparable mashers, but not bad by any means.

    Now he's in Philly and in a very nice park. Where he hits in the lineup will be very interesting. I think he'd be a good leadoff hitter, and that's what Roster Resource has right now, but I'm not sure Philly is leaning that way. Segura will definitely be either 1 or 2. Hitting 2nd would be pretty sweet for Cutch (Segura, Cutch, Harper/Machado, Hoskins, Realmuto) but if Philly doesn't add a big bat, he may end up hitting 3rd.

    Steamer has him at 594pa 263/362/474 with 26 HR and 11 SB, with 78 R and 79 RBI. The counting stats are the interesting question because Cutch has been really durable and I can see scenarios where he scores 100 runs.

    His ADP right now is around 143 which seems really low.

    Outfielders (Draft Champions, 1/1 to present):


    31 W Myers
    32 Pollock
    33 Gallo
    34 Eloy
    35 Brantley
    36 Hicks
    37 Ender
    38 D Peralta
    39 Cutch
    40 Desmond
    41 B.Ham

    Eloy? Really? Clearly I'm way higher on Cutch than most people as I think I take him ahead of everyone from 31-38.

  2. #2
    Big Leaguer Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by joncarlos View Post
    Hard to be objective on this one since he's my favorite player. I was susprised to see that his sprint speed (28.7 Ft/Sec) was in the 85th percentile last year, as the general impression is that he's slowed down. Also noteworthy that his home to first times (on baseball savant) were more like in the 50th percentile. Not sure how much of that is being right-handed and how much is that what he's lost is his FIRST step.
    His home-to-first sprint speed from Statcast is 89th percentile, FWIW, and his sprint speed on flyballs is 55th percentile among outfielders. Outfielders are generally faster than other players, but it also doesn't do to compare outfielder, infielder, and baserunner sprint speeds, since they are different animals. Sprint speed is defined by MLB as the fastest speed over a one-second interval. My observation from a quick look at the data is that McCutchen hustles to first way more often than the typical player. He almost never dogs it, which is very unusual.
    "There was nothing for him to do under the truck, but it's tough to blame him now that he is dead." -V.Erps 3/26/2005

  3. #3
    All Star joncarlos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
    His home-to-first sprint speed from Statcast is 89th percentile, FWIW, and his sprint speed on flyballs is 55th percentile among outfielders. Outfielders are generally faster than other players, but it also doesn't do to compare outfielder, infielder, and baserunner sprint speeds, since they are different animals. Sprint speed is defined by MLB as the fastest speed over a one-second interval. My observation from a quick look at the data is that McCutchen hustles to first way more often than the typical player. He almost never dogs it, which is very unusual.

  4. #4
    Big Leaguer TS Garp's Avatar
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    Love him as a player but not sure how high his fantasy ceiling is these days. He's never been a particularly proficient base stealer but was only successful 14 times in 23 attempts last year (1 out of 4 after joining the Yankees). The Phillies were on the lower end of the league in terms of running last year, and I can't see Kapler giving McCutchen the green light very often, so you may be looking at 8-10 steals. 25 home runs aren't that difficult to find these days, so unless you think his average gets closer to .280-290 or that he scores a ton of runs, I still think his name and history might supersede his actual value. I'd take almost all of the outfielders in JC's original post above him.

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    Big Leaguer Pauly's Avatar
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    JC- your assessment of the top of the Philly order is interesting - (Segura, Cutch, Harper/Machado, Hoskins, Realmuto). You dont think Cesar figures into that at all? I can see him hitting 1 or 2 and Cutch hitting in the lower half.

  6. #6
    All Star joncarlos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauly View Post
    JC- your assessment of the top of the Philly order is interesting - (Segura, Cutch, Harper/Machado, Hoskins, Realmuto). You dont think Cesar figures into that at all? I can see him hitting 1 or 2 and Cutch hitting in the lower half.
    Maybe if they don't sign anyone. But I think if they bring in another bat, they've got Segura in one of the top 2 spots, and too many "middle of the order" guys to put Cesar in that other spot. My suspicion is that they'd rather have a good OBP guy with power hitting 1 or 2, as opposed to a good OBP guy without power.

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    I think park factors can be overrated, but he's going from the 3rd worst park for right-handed power to 2nd best. And Pitt was 2nd worst. Love him this year. .270-30-180 R+RBI.

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