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Thread: Sports Wagering

  1. #1
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Sports Wagering

    Here in NJ, sports betting is legal, so I can use FanDuel or DraftKings or William Hill to place bets. Hammer turned me onto it. Bet some Super Bowl props last week (bad time to take players to score a bunch of TDs!) but I've started to wager on the NBA Moneyline with success. The Moneyline bets are just the team to win, no spread. Of course, the odds are way, way low, but if you feel the team is a lock, it's a good ROI. Of course, last night I bet $50 on the Warriors at home vs. the Heat to win $5, and it came down to the wire.

    Anyway, if you're in a market that allows sports betting and care to sign up and deposit at least $5, if you use this referral code we both get $50 in free wagers:
    https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/r/sb/revo70

    Who's betting? What's your strategy?

  2. #2
    Hall of Famer johnnya24's Avatar
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    You're betting 50 to win 55? Especially on US sports. I learned fast never to bet the favourite in US sports. Absurd variance imo.

    I come from a gambling culture ... sports betting is a mugs game bro, unless you are gaming purely for fun to add interest, it's a mugs game. I do that sometimes ... then try to run up the winnings.

    Pro gamblers either have a knowledge edge or they place large infrequent bets when a market is severely undervalued by the bookie. Compulsive gamblers don't have the patience to ever win, though they will happily tell you about their big scores, conveniently leaving out the repeated losses.

    It's a bit like drinking ... Not harmful if you drink moderately, but devastating if abused. But proscribing gambling doesn't work. Addicts will find a way to harm themselves whether legal or not, so better to make it legal and allow reasonable folk to gamble responsibly if they want. Also helps reduce organised crime.

    Also those "free wagers" used to be really easy to farm. These days they have so many preconditions they are almost worthless in my experience. I think you should explain the clauses before encouraging people to sign up under the impression that they are getting free money.

  3. #3
    Hall of Famer johnnya24's Avatar
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    There are a couple of long odds soccer bets that get close fairly frequently ... well the bet stays live long into the game, so I enjoy the game more. I place small bets of these, then try and run up the winnings.

    That way it's like paying a small sum for the entertainment of gambling, rather than risking my own money.

    But it's just for fun, and relatively risk free.

  4. #4
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnya24 View Post
    Also those "free wagers" used to be really easy to farm. These days they have so many preconditions they are almost worthless in my experience. I think you should explain the clauses before encouraging people to sign up under the impression that they are getting free money.
    They give you $50 in free wagers, which means just that -- you can bet $50 in phantom money, and if you win you get the winnings in cash (not the bet amount). The free bets expire after 30 days.


    As far as betting the favorite, yeah, it seemed crazy to bet $50 to win $55, but the Warriors were a lock IMO -- but that lock almost came undone. Betting with the spreads adds to the variance. And it's just for fun. I put $100 on the site and have $70 left. Once it goes, it goes.

  5. #5
    Hall of Famer johnnya24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    They give you $50 in free wagers, which means just that -- you can bet $50 in phantom money, and if you win you get the winnings in cash (not the bet amount). The free bets expire after 30 days.


    As far as betting the favorite, yeah, it seemed crazy to bet $50 to win $55, but the Warriors were a lock IMO -- but that lock almost came undone. Betting with the spreads adds to the variance. And it's just for fun. I put $100 on the site and have $70 left. Once it goes, it goes.
    A healthy way to gamble is to view it as paying for the pleasure of the experience of gambling, and comparing that to how much you pay for other experiences ... Movies, cable, eating out etc.

    That way there is no expectation, you win either way, and you might end up getting lucky.

  6. #6
    Hall of Famer johnnya24's Avatar
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    Mobile still deletes messages if I try to edit 🤔

    If I had any winnings left over, I used to make overnight multiples on hockey games. Pick the underdog +1 on say 3 games. Don't look at form as a fuck you to variance.

    Wake up the next morning ... bingo ... sometimes 😁

  7. #7
    Hall of Famer johnnya24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    They give you $50 in free wagers, which means just that -- you can bet $50 in phantom money, and if you win you get the winnings in cash (not the bet amount). The free bets expire after 30 days.
    That's one of the good ones.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnya24 View Post
    You're betting 50 to win 55? Especially on US sports. I learned fast never to bet the favourite in US sports. Absurd variance imo.

    I come from a gambling culture ... sports betting is a mugs game bro, unless you are gaming purely for fun to add interest, it's a mugs game. I do that sometimes ... then try to run up the winnings.

    Pro gamblers either have a knowledge edge or they place large infrequent bets when a market is severely undervalued by the bookie. Compulsive gamblers don't have the patience to ever win, though they will happily tell you about their big scores, conveniently leaving out the repeated losses.

    It's a bit like drinking ... Not harmful if you drink moderately, but devastating if abused. But proscribing gambling doesn't work. Addicts will find a way to harm themselves whether legal or not, so better to make it legal and allow reasonable folk to gamble responsibly if they want. Also helps reduce organised crime.
    Good post.

  9. #9
    I think we are up to 13 legal online sportsbooks in NJ, plus 8 Atlantic City casinos and 2 racetracks.

    eventually there will be another track and casino, and maybe 10-20 more online sportsbooks. so the customer acquisition wars are fierce. I'll probably claim some in time for March Madness.

    I joined DraftKings last year at $25 and they match it, so $50 in the account. I haven't cashed out or added since, and am at $70.57 (biggest single bet has been $10 because I am cheap!).

    I just hit on Jason Day at Pebble Beach for top 5, top 10, and top 20 (he tied for 4th). it's kind of dumb to bet on anybody to win, but I have taken mostly to top 10 predictions for studly, just-below-the-radar players (meaning not Day, but guys like Cantlay, Schauffele or Leishman) on courses where they have had success.

    PointsBet in NJ is going wild with offers like paying out anyone whose team is even ahead at halftime, or immediately if your NHL team ever gets a 2-goal lead. there was a college hoops game the other day where a shot after the buzzer (not impacting who won) was counted to flip who won on the spread. they paid out both sides. one of the DFS giants did that for Saints bettors off NFC championship games.

    legal in US in NV, DE, NJ, MS, WV, PA, RI, and NM. another 15-20 states are looking at it. as with casinos in the 1990s, look for the Northeast to go in first, with Midwest just behind.
    36th yr in same 12-team NL 5x5
    awful keeper list but smoke/mirrors has me 4 pts from 3rd in August
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    SP Scherzer 44-IL, Keuchel LD, CSmith 1, Marquez, Samardzija 1, Leake, AWood
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    All Star heyelander's Avatar
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    I dropped $50 on the Sixers to win the Eastern Conference paying 3:1 in Vegas over labor day, but otherwise I've never bet sports. I looked at their over/under for wins too, but betting even odds didn't seem like it was worth it. I'm much more of a bet $2 to win 1B in the lottery and dream of what I would do with that kind of money for 3 days before I lose kind of guy.

    Now Poker... that seems completely different.
    I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

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