Bill Belichick's place in sports history

[Kevin Seitzer]

In a semi-related note, Joe Posnanski has a column in the Athletic about whether Babe Ruth would be a superstar in today's game. Again, impossible to answer but fun to speculate on.

I haven't read the Posnanski column yet, but I think the answer depends on what you mean when you say Babe Ruth transported to today's game. Do you mean Ruth, plucked out of time from 1925 and dropped into spring training 2019? He would almost certainly struggle to deal with today's pitching. By no means would he be a superstar. Whether he could hold his own enough to maintain a spot on a major league roster, I don't know, but I doubt it. On the hand, Ruth brought to the present as a boy and allowed to train with modern methods and to familiarize himself with today's level of competition over time...that might be a different story. Hard to say.

[TS Garp]

I haven't read the Posnanski column yet, but I think the answer depends on what you mean when you say Babe Ruth transported to today's game. Do you mean Ruth, plucked out of time from 1925 and dropped into spring training 2019? He would almost certainly struggle to deal with today's pitching. By no means would he be a superstar. Whether he could hold his own enough to maintain a spot on a major league roster, I don't know, but I doubt it. On the hand, Ruth brought to the present as a boy and allowed to train with modern methods and to familiarize himself with today's level of competition over time...that might be a different story. Hard to say.

Yeah, he means literally plucked from 1927 and put in today's game. Apparently, Bill James had some thoughts about it on Twitter.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Yeah, he means literally plucked from 1927 and put in today's game. Apparently, Bill James had some thoughts about it on Twitter.

And now I've read Posnanski's article and skimmed Bill's much longer article, which Poz summarized.

I see a few inter-related issues that I think would be very difficult for Ruth to overcome in the course of one season. One is that his swing is way too long to deal with 95+ heat, and even for 90-mph fastballs he would be hard pressed to be on time. Two is that I don't believe he saw anything like the sliders of today back then. Picking out sliders from fastballs is a task that fails many hitters. Even if Ruth had the eyesight to do it, I doubt he would do it without gaining the skill by experience over time. His swing did get on plane early through the zone, so once he learned to see the slider, I think he could hit it...but...the big bat tip and long swing (not to mention the heavy bat, which he could presumably abandon) doesn't give him the leeway to adjust late between a fastball and a slider once he learns to recognize it. He'd have to tighten up his load and make it more compact. He's probably strong enough to still have a lot of power once he does that, but that's not an easy swing change to make overnight by any means. And finally, today, he'd have advance scouting teams breaking down his weaknesses from video and TrackMan data after the first series or two he played in spring training. Whatever adjustments he hadn't made yet, they'd find and exploit those weaknesses.

[TS Garp]

And now I've read Posnanski's article and skimmed Bill's much longer article, which Poz summarized.

I see a few inter-related issues that I think would be very difficult for Ruth to overcome in the course of one season. One is that his swing is way too long to deal with 95+ heat, and even for 90-mph fastballs he would be hard pressed to be on time. Two is that I don't believe he saw anything like the sliders of today back then. Picking out sliders from fastballs is a task that fails many hitters. Even if Ruth had the eyesight to do it, I doubt he would do it without gaining the skill by experience over time. His swing did get on plane early through the zone, so once he learned to see the slider, I think he could hit it...but...the big bat tip and long swing (not to mention the heavy bat, which he could presumably abandon) doesn't give him the leeway to adjust late between a fastball and a slider once he learns to recognize it. He'd have to tighten up his load and make it more compact. He's probably strong enough to still have a lot of power once he does that, but that's not an easy swing change to make overnight by any means. And finally, today, he'd have advance scouting teams breaking down his weaknesses from video and TrackMan data after the first series or two he played in spring training. Whatever adjustments he hadn't made yet, they'd find and exploit those weaknesses.

Fascinating stuff -- thanks for posting! I wonder if 1949 Ted Williams is a more interesting one to consider.

On a side note, how amazing is it that in his final season, at age 41, Williams went .316/.451/.645?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Fascinating stuff -- thanks for posting! I wonder if 1949 Ted Williams is a more interesting one to consider.

On a side note, how amazing is it that in his final season, at age 41, Williams went .316/.451/.645?

I think Williams would be more prepared to face today's pitchers than Ruth would be, in the same situation where they are dropped in and have days or weeks to prepare as opposed to years. But I think he would suffer from many of the same issues to a lesser degree.

[Judge Jude]

these articles make about as much sense to me as the debates about "which cap" goes on the player's HOF plaque.

[The Feral Slasher]

these articles make about as much sense to me as the debates about "which cap" goes on the player's HOF plaque.

I disagree

[TS Garp]

I think Williams would be more prepared to face today's pitchers than Ruth would be, in the same situation where they are dropped in and have days or weeks to prepare as opposed to years. But I think he would suffer from many of the same issues to a lesser degree.

Is there a hitters from a different era whose swing/approach you think would more easily translate?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Is there a hitters from a different era whose swing/approach you think would more easily translate?

In terms of swing path, I think Cobb's would work well today. But I think anyone from before the 1970s or so would struggle with the slider and anyone from 30+ years ago would probably have some trouble adjusting to the velo because they hadn't seen it. Guys like DiMaggio had a pretty quick, compact swing. He'd probably be okay. Maybe Rose, too.
Brett, Carew. I'm sure there are more. I've only studied video of some of them.

[The Feral Slasher]

In terms of swing path, I think Cobb's would work well today. But I think anyone from before the 1970s or so would struggle with the slider and anyone from 30+ years ago would probably have some trouble adjusting to the velo because they hadn't seen it. Guys like DiMaggio had a pretty quick, compact swing. He'd probably be okay. Maybe Rose, too.
Brett, Carew. I'm sure there are more. I've only studied video of some of them.

Dimaggio, Mays, Burkett, Latham.... possibly others.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Charlie Lau's book The Art of Hitting .300 is the best on the topic. It's out of print but you can find used copies. Williams' The Science of Hitting is all the rage now, and it's a good book, too, but Lau understood and explained the technical aspects of hitting far better than anyone. It's no accident he was filming hitters with high-speed cameras back in the 1970s.

[TS Garp]

Charlie Lau's book The Art of Hitting .300 is the best on the topic. It's out of print but you can find used copies. Williams' The Science of Hitting is all the rage now, and it's a good book, too, but Lau understood and explained the technical aspects of hitting far better than anyone. It's no accident he was filming hitters with high-speed cameras back in the 1970s.

Thanks, will check it out. Sounds a bit like the Bill Walsh coaching book, which is hard to find but supposedly the holy grail of modern coaching.

[TS Garp]

Out of curiosity, have we been able to approximate how hard pitchers were throwing in Ruth's era? Re: Williams' era -- supposedly, Feller was throwing over 100, right?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Out of curiosity, have we been able to approximate how hard pitchers were throwing in Ruth's era? Re: Williams' era -- supposedly, Feller was throwing over 100, right?

Not reliably, no. I don't trust any of the velo measurements made before the introduction of the radar gun in the 1960s (and really late 1970s before it was in widespread usage).

[Kevin Seitzer]

Bob Feller's fastball was variously measured at 104 mph, 107.9 mph, and 98.6 mph. You tell me whether that gives you confidence in the measurement methods.