Keepers and strategy

[onejayhawk]

Thanks for the feedback.

16 team, H2H with OBA and Holds.

Below is my final roster.

C Carson Kelly
1B Paul Golschmidt
2B Adalberto Mondesi
3B Matt Chapman
SS Jean Segura
CI Matt Olson
MI Amed Rosario
OF Christian Yelich
OF Ronald Acuna
OF Victor Robles
OF Teoscar Hernandez
Util Clint Frazier

SP Robbie Ray
SP Jack Flaherty
SP Andrew Heaney
SP Justin Bieber
RP Corey Knebel
RP Matt Burnes
RP Joe Jimenez
P Yu Darvish
P Freddy Peralta
P Wily Peralta

BN Shohei Ohtani (SP only)
BN Luis Robert
BN Wander Franco
BN Jo Adell
BN Royce Lewis
BN Willie Calhoun
BN Yandy Diaz
BN Dereck Rodriguez

For what it may be worth, the dollar value of the starting 22 players and pitchers is $254 and change. That's using the FanGraph auction function and Depth Chart projections.

J

[onejayhawk]

The game site is Yahoo.

I thought I'd bump this now that the draft is complete. Wily Peralta was my final pick, #473. Mr. Irrelevant, ie #480, was a shrewd grab of Framber Valdez.

Notable on WW: Kevin Pillar, Leonys Martin, Mitch Moreland, Ramiel Tapia, Albert, Eric Thames.
For pitchers: Lance Lynn, CC Sabathia, Odorizzi, Fiers, lots of MR and swingmen.

Because I went for some prospects fairly early, I was stuck taking pitching four of the last five rounds.

J

[joncarlos]

I like McHugh from your list of possibles. Not the others.

It looks like you need to target some power bats with your early picks. Cruz, Cutch, Cano, Desmond (I guess), Odor. Yelich's power may regress and there's (apparently) not a ton of power in the draft. You could still use more SP and maybe I'd gamble on Price but that's about it. I'd consider Tanaka at 19 if he made it there. Guys like Gordon, Inciarte, Andrus don't do a ton for you with Mondesi and Rosario already on your team. With both holds and saves I'd save your early picks and try to hit on later RPs in unclear situations. Maybe some of them end up getting saves instead of holds.

[KnuckleBalls]

I agree with jc that McHugh is the choice. Assuming Price is gone I would look to fill out my U and MI first. Cruz/Cutch then Cano/Odor. Never having played with holds I'm not sure how that downgrades top closers like Chapman but he looks to be in the mix for me as well if you can't fill out your offense with those 4. I am assuming Tanaka doesn't make it to 19 and I would consider him for the 14 15. Use end game to play pick a reliever, any reliever and pray.

[onejayhawk]

Thanks, guys. Keep McHugh.

If Price is there, he's my first choice. Otherwise a bat. At 19 there will still be a stack of closers, though probably not Kimbrel and Chapman. I can get someone like Ottavino or Givens in round 15 and later.

Earlier I had a nibble to get Aaron Nola for Paul Goldschmidt. Though that has fallen through I think I may see how much pitching I can get for Goldy. Failing that, our resident Cardinal fan might part with G Stanton for Goldy. He's been with me for two championships so I would be sorry to see him go, but he's past 30 and no longer in a BA haven.

J

[Gregg]

Thanks, guys. Keep McHugh.

If Price is there, he's my first choice. Otherwise a bat. At 19 there will still be a stack of closers, though probably not Kimbrel and Chapman. I can get someone like Ottavino or Givens in round 15 and later.

Earlier I had a nibble to get Aaron Nola for Paul Goldschmidt. Though that has fallen through I think I may see how much pitching I can get for Goldy. Failing that, our resident Cardinal fan might part with G Stanton for Goldy. He's been with me for two championships so I would be sorry to see him go, but he's past 30 and no longer in a BA haven.

J

Why are you in such a hurry to get rid of Goldy?

[onejayhawk]

Why are you in such a hurry to get rid of Goldy?

It's a sell at the top strategy made famous by Branch Rickey. Goldschmidt turned 31 this week and is moving to a more difficult park. I think his trade value is as high as it will ever be again. So, if people are willing to discuss Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Nola, I'm willing to listen.

If you had owned Pujols, wouldn't you have preferred to trade him in 2010 or 2011 rather than waiting until 2012?

J

[Gregg]

It's a sell at the top strategy made famous by Branch Rickey. Goldschmidt turned 31 this week and is moving to a more difficult park. I think his trade value is as high as it will ever be again. So, if people are willing to discuss Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Nola, I'm willing to listen.

If you had owned Pujols, wouldn't you have preferred to trade him in 2010 or 2011 rather than waiting until 2012?

J

Nope. If I traded Pujols before the 2010 auction I would have missed out on .312, 42 hrs, 118 rbi, and 113 runs. 2011 a little regression but still huge. 2012 he was hurt. 2015 very good.

But thanks for answering my question. I hope your trade works out to your favor.

[onejayhawk]

In a 2010 keeper league, you could get Miguel Cabrera plus something for Pujols. Miggy almost matched Pujols that year, surpassed him in 2011 and crushed him 2012-2013. In 2014 it's time to trade Miggy for Goldschmidt. And so it goes.

NEW Question:
Is Jo Adell or Austin Riley worth the last keeper slot? That translates to late 200s/early 300s with two option years.

J

[joncarlos]

In a 2010 keeper league, you could get Miguel Cabrera plus something for Pujols. Miggy almost matched Pujols that year, surpassed him in 2011 and crushed him 2012-2013. In 2014 it's time to trade Miggy for Goldschmidt. And so it goes.

NEW Question:
Is Jo Adell or Austin Riley worth the last keeper slot? That translates to late 200s/early 300s with two option years.

J

I don't think either gives you anything useful this year. Can you get them back in the draft with an extra year if you want them? I like Adell's long-term upside a lot more.

[Gregg]

Big fan of Adell. I agree with JC that he will not help this year.

If I wasn't sure I could get him back I would try to find a way to keep him.

[onejayhawk]

I don't think either gives you anything useful this year. Can you get them back in the draft with an extra year if you want them? I like Adell's long-term upside a lot more.

I have options on Austin Riley, Jo Adell, Yandy Diaz, and Taylor Trammell.

The short version is that the option costs my round 16 pick, which I value close to #300, and carries additional options for 2020 and 2022 in rounds 12 and 8. So, if Adell will start regularly in 2020 he's definitely a possibility. Riley has interest because Matt Chapman is pricey next season.

I have an offer out. Goldschmidt and Flaherty to our resident Cardinals fan for Stanton and Senzel. If I make the deal I throw Teoscar Hernandez back and focus on pitching in the draft.

J

[joncarlos]

I have options on Austin Riley, Jo Adell, Yandy Diaz, and Taylor Trammell.

The short version is that the option costs my round 16 pick, which I value close to #300, and carries additional options for 2020 and 2022 in rounds 12 and 8. So, if Adell will start regularly in 2020 he's definitely a possibility. Riley has interest because Matt Chapman is pricey next season.

I have an offer out. Goldschmidt and Flaherty to our resident Cardinals fan for Stanton and Senzel. If I make the deal I throw Teoscar Hernandez back and focus on pitching in the draft.

J

Yeah, not convinced Adell is worth a 12th rounder next year even though I like him. The Braves tried hard to block Riley both of the last 2 seasons so I'm just not sure. I guess given your structure he IS more likely to be worth a 12th rounder next year than Adell even if I like him less down the road.

[onejayhawk]

A 12th rounder is more like 16th rounder in most leagues because of all the players kept with later round options. If there are five deserving players left of the top 250 I will be surprised.

That said, there are always idiot picks and surprising sliders. As much as I like Adell, I am leaning toward not keeping him and not keeping Collin McHugh. Two picks in that part of the draft would be useful.

The offer two posts up was rejected. Oh well, that's better for this year.

J

[onejayhawk]

I elected not to keep either Collin McHugh or Jo Adell, which gives me two picks in rounds heavily consumed by options. One reason is this team:

Round 1*: Mike Trout
Round 2*: Clayton Kershaw
Round 3*: Anthony Rizzo
Round 4: George Springer
Round 5:
Round 6:
Round 7:
Round 8: Jonathan Villar
Round 9:
Round 10`: Cody Bellinger
Round 11`: Jake Bauers (w#206)
Round 12`:
Round 13`:
Round 14`:
Round 15`:
Round 16`: Jose Berrios
Round 17`: Jake Lamb
Round 18:
Round 19:
Round 20:
Round 21: Willy Adames
Round 22: Forrest Whitley

Trout has been bad luck for him. He won before he acquired Trout, but not since. None-the-less that looks like a potent core and he has lots of picks.

J