2k19: Anthony Rendon

[joncarlos]

Rendon used to wear the 'fragile' tag, but he has 156, 147 and 136 games played the last 3 seasons. OK, that's a downward trend, but it's still not bad.

2018 stats 597 PA, 308/374/535, 24 HR, 88 R, 92 RBI, 2 SB.

His steals have also declined 3 straight years, from 12 to 7 to 2. If you don't see those coming back, he might be a bit overdrafted.

He's currently the 7th 3B off the board in NFBC drafts since 1/1, going 42nd overall, about a pick behind Vladito.

His lineup will still be solid but not spectacular, even without Harper and Murphy (Eaton, Turner, Rendon, Zimm, Soto, Robles, Dozier, Gomes/Suzuki).

Steamer projects .287-21-80-80-4sb. Barring 155 games or a spike in BABIP and/or HR/FB%, I don't know if I see him doing a lot more than that. But he's only 28, so it could still happen.

[revo]

Love him. Agree on the SBs, but besides that, he's as stable a commodity as there is. You can pencil him in for .300/85/25/90/5 and I'm sure his standard deviation is very low off those projections.

[Sharky]

It’s interesting- he used to be seen as injury prone. Now nobody mentions it. I suspect that’s an understated risk with Rendon.

[cavebird]

Can't believe he is the 7th 3B in anything. Arenado and Ramirez ahead of him for me. I would put Bryant, Baez, Bregman (injury question), and Suarez behind him. Can't believe Vlad is sixth in non-keeper leagues. His injury-prone profile is from his college days, when he couldn't stay on the field, which is how the Nats got him at #6 overall. The SB's won't come back, but the dude can hit and is in his prime.

[Ken]

Can't believe he is the 7th 3B in anything. Arenado and Ramirez ahead of him for me. I would put Bryant, Baez, Bregman (injury question), and Suarez behind him. Can't believe Vlad is sixth in non-keeper leagues. His injury-prone profile is from his college days, when he couldn't stay on the field, which is how the Nats got him at #6 overall. The SB's won't come back, but the dude can hit and is in his prime.

Compare him against Baez for me. I think they'll produce roughly similar numbers outside of AVG (although Baez was a healthy .290 last year), and SB where Baez has a pretty sizable advantage. I'd have a hard time putting Rendon ahead of Baez personally.

[cavebird]

It is close between them, but I prefer the relatively safety of Rendon. He's done it multiple times. Baez, even in his breakout 2018, struck out 25% of the time, and there is significant batting average downside there. Also, Baez never had more than 12 SB's before last year, and those can be so random for non-elite speed guys, I don't know how many he'll get. Baez would be the upside play, certainly.

[TS Garp]

In an OBP league, Rendon is superior to Baez but in a traditional format, the decision is much more difficult. I wouldn't count on Baez hitting .290 again. He had a .347 BABIP last year. Granted, his career is .337 but you can't be surprised if that falls and he hits .260.

[Ken]

In an OBP league, Rendon is superior to Baez but in a traditional format, the decision is much more difficult. I wouldn't count on Baez hitting .290 again. He had a .347 BABIP last year. Granted, his career is .337 but you can't be surprised if that falls and he hits .260.

Of note, Steamer has Baez slipping to .269, but still $9 more valuable than Rendon in a traditional 5x5 15 team mixed.

[cavebird]

Steamer does not seem to like Rendon. And Baez's steals are probably the difference. I tend not to chase speed, so I probably discount that too much.