Trading a $1 keeper for a $40 keeper pre-auction

[Sharky]

The interesting question isn’t just cheap vs expensive, it’s the idea of locking in a certain amount of production. And specifically, when do you keep the nearly-at-value stud (or even at value) to lock in one of the best / most reliable players.

I’m an NL guy, but in AL would you keep a Trout or Betts at full value? If so, under what circumstances (assuming you are allowed limited keepers)?

[Gregg]

In some ways it is more of an art than a science. I've developed some patterns I like to exercise during auctions to where I can always have money when there's good values to be had. It takes practice.

I think there is more truth to this statement (the art vs. science part) than meets the eye. If it was just all about the math and science we would have a formula for winning that we would not deviate from.

I do pretty well at auctions with little money. I like to get my studs locked down pre-auction. I always go in with a full keeper list. I never leave more than $2 on the table (this happened once) usually I leave none.

I use you guys for the deeper science, combined with my art to play this game.

[Gregg]

I think this is so fundamental, it is probably one of the few concepts most get, actually. I mean, almost everyone understands auction dollars are not worth as much with inflation. But some of the other points, like how inflation happens more at the top end, and how exactly inflation should affect keeper values is less commonly understood. For instance, some folks are citing the projected values of both players, but the projected values are not inflation adjusted, and not compared against the likely cost of comparable players in the auction. So when folks say Cole won't turn a profit at 40, I'd retort that his value at 40 exceed paying 45 plus for Bauer. Both of these players are clearly good keepers, and while the projected values favor the catcher, Ken's point about how inflation happens more at the top seems to be true in almost all auctions, as it seems it is in Gregg's league. So, as others have suggested, this is a close deal.

You are right it absolutely is a close deal. It is also a tough decision. That is why I posted it. I wanted and appreciate all of the thoughts and discussions on it.

I made the deal a few minutes after my post #10 on the first page. The trade gives me good counting stats, one of the better pitching staffs as well as drive up the prices of the 3 stud pitchers in the auction.

After reading the second page, I believe this plays into my comfort zone (art) on how I play the game.

[Judge Jude]

and of course now you name the best SP available every time it's your turn.

[Ken]

and of course now you name the best SP available every time it's your turn.

That's evil.

....


And fun.

[Judge Jude]

Embrace the dark side - and drain the pool.

I don't bid on closers, so all else being equal I name one each time until they are gone.

[Gregg]

Embrace the dark side - and drain the pool.

I don't bid on closers, so all else being equal I name one each time until they are gone.

How do you get your saves?

[Judge Jude]

2013 - 70 SV, led by 34 from 2012 FA pickup Cishek, 16 from 2011 FA pickup Betancourt, 9 from 2013 FA pickup K-Rod, 6 from FA pickup Hawkins, 4 from 3-unit Gregerson. (Cishek and Betancourt both cost 10 units to freeze)

2014 - 71 SV. got 44 from a 2-unit K-Rod auction buy, 14 from Hawkins, 5 from Cishek, 5 from FA pickup Quackenbush

2015 - 76 SV. 30 from 1-unit keeper Ziegler, 25 from K-Rod, 11 from FA pickup AJ Ramos, 10 from trade buy Chapman

2016 - 37 SV. 18 from Ziegler, 7 from FA pickup Ottavino, 5 from FA pickup DHudson (froze a 10-unit Hoover, who was horrible with 1 SV to boot. nobody's perfect!)

2017 - all-time league record 99 SV. 39 from 2-unit buy Knebel, 26 from 1-unit buy Neris, 17 from trade buy AJ Ramos, 9 from FA pickup Ziegler, 4 from 1-unit buy Kelley

2018 - 61 SV. got 16 from Knebel, 16 from FA pickup Dominguez, 15 from 1-unit buy Jeffress, 10 from Neris

avg of 69 SV per year


have options for 2019 on Dominguez 10, Knebel 2, Jeffress 1

[cavebird]

Make the deal. Now. Navarez may be the #6 catcher, but he cannot be that much better than the #20 catcher, or even a blank spot in your lineup. His "breakout" last year involved 9 HR, 30 RBI, and 30 R. And he went from a plus part to a minus park in the offseason---yes, more playing time, but that could expose him as much as help him, and he won't play because of defense. If you would keep Cole for $40 in your league, do not let Navarez prevent you from doing so.

[Gregg]

Make the deal. Now. Navarez may be the #6 catcher, but he cannot be that much better than the #20 catcher, or even a blank spot in your lineup. His "breakout" last year involved 9 HR, 30 RBI, and 30 R. And he went from a plus part to a minus park in the offseason---yes, more playing time, but that could expose him as much as help him, and he won't play because of defense. If you would keep Cole for $40 in your league, do not let Navarez prevent you from doing so.

Thanks. I made the trade.

I am going to test my mettle by going into the auction with very little money.

[cavebird]

No problem going in with very little money if you have lots of good players! Good luck!

[harmon]

Thanks. I made the trade.

I am going to test my mettle by going into the auction with very little money.

Has anyone ever done an analysis in their league on final results vs $ spent at auction? That would be an interesting review. If I can find some time I'll take a look at my league.

My expectation is that results would be fairly highly skewed towards the high keepers but maybe there will be some surprises.

[cavebird]

Has anyone ever done an analysis in their league on final results vs $ spent at auction? That would be an interesting review. If I can find some time I'll take a look at my league.

My expectation is that results would be fairly highly skewed towards the high keepers but maybe there will be some surprises.

I would imagine that the tricky part would be finding a way to avoid having horrible keeper decisions skew the results.

[Gregg]

Ok, I made the trade. Here is what my current roster looks like in my AL 5x5 OBP instead of ave. and SB-CS. $260 budget I have spent 204 on this roster. I can keep 11. The rookies use a spot but do not count against cap.

Probably going to drop Healy to make 11. Trying to trade Marsh fro a better keeper still dropping Healy. May drop Bieber if I think I can get him back at the same price. A little nervous about that move.

Thoughts?

C
C
1B
2B Rougned Odor 2B | TEX 25A
3B Ryon Healy 3B,1B | SEA 13B
SS
MI Jose Ramirez 3B | CLE 40Y
CI
OF Mookie Betts OF | BOS 45A
OF Adam Engel OF | CHW 1A
OF
OF Leonys Martin OF | CLE 5A
OF
U


RESERVES

OF Jo Adell OF | LAA 15F
OF Brandon Marsh 2F

PITCHERS

P Shane Bieber P | CLE 14FA
P Gerrit Cole P 40A
P
P Andrew Heaney 2B
P
P
P David Price P | BOS 19B
P
P

[cavebird]

If inflation is so high that Bieber is $14 and you are even thinking about keeping him, you made the right decision in the trade. Remember, when inflation is high, all the value at auction is negative except for the $1 and $2 guys who earn $5 or so. Having good keeper value and more money spent is a good thing. You have done your value keeping and most of your production getting up front. That being said, I'd drop Healy before Bieber. He's not very good, and Bieber could be excellent.