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2K19 Omar Narvaez

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  • 2K19 Omar Narvaez

    Now a full time player, has a great ave. for a catcher, even better for OBP leagues. Probably picked up cheap if rostered at all. I really like him in two catcher leagues.

    How unique is Narvaez? FutureSox ran the numbers. In the last 15 Rule 5 drafts, there have been 583 players selected in the minor league portion of the draft. Forty-one of those players have gone on to reach the majors. How many have generated a 3+ bWAR in their MLB careers like Narvaez? Only 5 of them, less than 1 percent!

    What do you guys think?

  • #2
    I play in an a.l. only using ob% and scooped him for a $1 in 2018. I am going to enjoy the next two seasons...

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    • #3
      Steamer projects 249/331/357, in 346 PAs, giving him 6 HRs. Adjusted for projected playing time of 448 PAs that gives him .248-8hr-2sb. There are certainly worse buys. He posted a BABIP of .330 in back to back seasons with the ChiSox. Good spray hitter, not a ton of infield flies, hard hit rate went up last year. I think there's some upside from those projections. I'd consider .265-12hr realistic and .275-14hr to be within reach. He reminds me a lot of Francisco Cervelli, especially with the OBP skills, but he does have a better chance of 115 healthy games than Frankie does.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by joncarlos View Post
        Steamer projects 249/331/357, in 346 PAs, giving him 6 HRs. Adjusted for projected playing time of 448 PAs that gives him .248-8hr-2sb. There are certainly worse buys. He posted a BABIP of .330 in back to back seasons with the ChiSox. Good spray hitter, not a ton of infield flies, hard hit rate went up last year. I think there's some upside from those projections. I'd consider .265-12hr realistic and .275-14hr to be within reach. He reminds me a lot of Francisco Cervelli, especially with the OBP skills, but he does have a better chance of 115 healthy games than Frankie does.
        Where are you projecting that from? Just his 2018 stats across a 322 PA sample? Or other data points?

        I'd be very careful with the power projection. He has 19 HR in 10 seasons across all levels in 2528 PA.

        Isn't he more likely to end up somewhere between his 2017 season (2 HR/ 14 RBI) and his 2018 season (9 HR / 30 RBI) rather than putting together a season that's better than his 25yo + 26yo seasons combined?

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Ken View Post
          Where are you projecting that from? Just his 2018 stats across a 322 PA sample? Or other data points?

          I'd be very careful with the power projection. He has 19 HR in 10 seasons across all levels in 2528 PA.

          Isn't he more likely to end up somewhere between his 2017 season (2 HR/ 14 RBI) and his 2018 season (9 HR / 30 RBI) rather than putting together a season that's better than his 25yo + 26yo seasons combined?
          Looking at his hard hit rates was sort of encouraging. But then I looked at his statcast data and it's much more of a mixed bag. He's got the launch angle (13 degrees) but his average exit velo is very bad (ranked 292 out of 332). Then again his average sweet spot angle is top 10 in the league. His barrels are low because his exit velo is so bad. Theoretically at age 27 maybe he gets a little stronger. But maybe not. So maybe somewhere in the 2-9 range is more reasonable.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by joncarlos View Post
            Theoretically at age 27 maybe he gets a little stronger. But maybe not.
            I hear ya - BTW, the 27 year old peak for baseball has been adjusted in recent years to the point where from a roto standpoint you're looking at almost constant decline for the average player (starting at ~22):

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Ken View Post
              I hear ya - BTW, the 27 year old peak for baseball has been adjusted in recent years to the point where from a roto standpoint you're looking at almost constant decline for the average player (starting at ~22):

              https://tht.fangraphs.com/rotisserie...ging-patterns/
              Thanks for the link. I hadn't seen it. It is a bit more nuanced that your statement though. There is an overall decline, but if you are starting at 22 as the decline point, the only clear declines are AVG, SBs, and runs (they are all steeper than I would have thought). On the other hand though, obp doesn't peak until 25-26, and HRs and RBIs go up from 22 into the late 20s, which is in line with the old perceptions.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
                Thanks for the link. I hadn't seen it. It is a bit more nuanced that your statement though. There is an overall decline, but if you are starting at 22 as the decline point, the only clear declines are AVG, SBs, and runs (they are all steeper than I would have thought). On the other hand though, obp doesn't peak until 25-26, and HRs and RBIs go up from 22 into the late 20s, which is in line with the old perceptions.
                Yeah... that's what I was thinking. Overall value might peak earlier but power peak is still mid-late 20s. Or so I hear. All I can actually confirm is that it sure as hell isn't 41.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
                  It is a bit more nuanced that your statement though. There is an overall decline,
                  The overall decline is what I was referencing.

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                  • #10
                    He might have a great, breakout season. He might not. Projections will be all over the place. He's a $1 for me since I don't play in any two catcher leagues. I wouldn't trust him at all. My best guess is empty batting average, which won't even get that many runs and RBIs in that lineup.

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