10 unsettling answers to the fermi paradox

[Sour Masher]

To the contrary, the math says I'm right.

The math says that if we are not alone then they are already here. Muller and Sculley aside, I don't think they are here, so we must be alone.

J

What math says that if there is life elsewhere in the vast, ever expanding universe that they must be here, with us, right now, on earth? Please show your work.

[Steve 2.0]

What math says that if there is life elsewhere in the vast, ever expanding universe that they must be here, with us, right now, on earth? Please show your work.

[TranaGreg]

What math says that if there is life elsewhere in the vast, ever expanding universe that they must be here, with us, right now, on earth? Please show your work.

made me think of this (seems appropriate ... )

[Fresno Bob]

What math says that if there is life elsewhere in the vast, ever expanding universe that they must be here, with us, right now, on earth? Please show your work.

I wont argue right here, right now, on earth. But the math supports elsewhere and concurrent


With pleasure....it's called the Drake Equation

N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L

https://www.space.com/25219-drake-equation.html

I'm not going to argue with the math

[nullnor]

there's also the rare earth equation too but i've never attempted that one. i think it's harder. i've done the drake equation a few times and i always come out to one technological civilization per galaxy. but i noticed the 2nd time i did it, i felt bias and like i was trying to fudge my answers to come out the same.

also, the other day i heard them say the milky way hasn't had very many collisions. and actually, i suspected as much! heh

[Fresno Bob]

there's also the rare earth equation too but i've never attempted that one. i think it's harder. i've done the drake equation a few times and i always come out to one technological civilization per galaxy. but i noticed the 2nd time i did it, i felt bias and like i was trying to fudge my answers to come out the same.

also, the other day i heard them say the milky way hasn't had very many collisions. and actually, i suspected as much! heh

The Milky Way is one of how many galaxies? 100 Billion? 200 Billion? This is why the math works.

[nullnor]

The Milky Way is one of how many galaxies? 100 Billion? 200 Billion? This is why the math works.

actually i think most galaxies have collisions. i'd have to look it up.

[Gregg]

I wont argue right here, right now, on earth. But the math supports elsewhere and concurrent


With pleasure....it's called the Drake Equation

N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L

https://www.space.com/25219-drake-equation.html

I'm not going to argue with the math

The challenge (at least for now) is that astronomers don't have firm numbers on any of those variables, so any calculation of the Drake Equation remains a rough estimate for now.

Very hard to argue the math without numbers.

[Steve 2.0]

actually i think most galaxies have collisions. i'd have to look it up.

Well, they are ugly for sure:

[Steve 2.0]

The challenge (at least for now) is that astronomers don't have firm numbers on any of those variables, so any calculation of the Drake Equation remains a rough estimate for now.

Very hard to argue the math without numbers.

Must....not.....snark......

[Kevin Seitzer]

The challenge (at least for now) is that astronomers don't have firm numbers on any of those variables, so any calculation of the Drake Equation remains a rough estimate for now.

Very hard to argue the math without numbers.

I'm super uncomfortable with calling this math. It's not that we don't have "firm" numbers for fl, fi, and fc. We don't have any numbers at all. So this is "guessing" or "imagining" or "positing", not math.

I don't have any idea whether there are other intelligent civilizations in the universe. To say we have evidence one way or the other is false. It's more fun to imagine there other civilizations than not, of course, so that's what I hope for, but this is all being dressed up as way more scientific than it actually is.

[Gregg]

I'm super uncomfortable with calling this math. It's not that we don't have "firm" numbers for fl, fi, and fc. We don't have any numbers at all. So this is "guessing" or "imagining" or "positing", not math.

I don't have any idea whether there are other intelligent civilizations in the universe. To say we have evidence one way or the other is false. It's more fun to imagine there other civilizations than not, of course, so that's what I hope for, but this is all being dressed up as way more scientific than it actually is.

Great post. Well put.

[Fresno Bob]

The challenge (at least for now) is that astronomers don't have firm numbers on any of those variables, so any calculation of the Drake Equation remains a rough estimate for now.

Very hard to argue the math without numbers.

When you are dealing with numbers like 100 or 200 Billion on the front end, none of the other numbers need to be that big to make a decent probability

[Kevin Seitzer]

When you are dealing with numbers like 100 or 200 Billion on the front end, none of the other numbers need to be that big to make a decent probability

They need to be bigger than zero. We don't know if they are bigger than zero, other than us. I think it would be theoretically possible for some of the numbers in the equation to be so small that life elsewhere could be suspected to be extremely unlikely. That doesn't seem to be the case. But we literally have no idea how likely it is, and some of the numbers being very, very big doesn't keep some of the other probabilities from being very, very small--smaller even than the big numbers are big.

[Ken]

When you are dealing with numbers like 100 or 200 Billion on the front end, none of the other numbers need to be that big to make a decent probability

It's always fun when we bring in subjectivity to a math equation!

You are correct that they don't have to be "that big", but if you start out assuming one of the unknown factors required for life is 1 in 1000 but in reality it is 1 in a trillion, it means that your 100 or 200 Billion on the front end doesn't help you much.