10 unsettling answers to the fermi paradox

[Sour Masher]

It's the math nerd talking.

Fermi's numbers say we have to be alone in the galaxy. The only alternative is to be hip deep in aliens. When they say aliens would be here, they mean this specific planet. If they left, where is the trash? For that matter, why isn't SETI constantly cataloging new hits?

Fermi's numbers say that sapience must be next to nonexistent or it will be found everywhere the environment supports it, with no middle possibility. We observe no other sentient life. Ergo, sentience is almost impossible and likely occurred exactly once.

J

There is no ergo here. You have all sort of assumptions here, and seem to need to look up the word sentience.

[nullnor]

The Silurian Hypothesis: Would it be possible to detect an industrial civilization in the geological record? https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.03748

If an industrial civilization had existed on Earth many millions of years prior to our own era, what traces would it have left and would they be detectable today? We summarize the likely geological fingerprint of the Anthropocene, and demonstrate that while clear, it will not differ greatly in many respects from other known events in the geological record. We then propose tests that could plausibly distinguish an industrial cause from an otherwise naturally occurring climate event.

i skimmed over it but couldn't find the patience to read it. but since the topic was brought up.

[nullnor]

early life on earth created it's own growth conditions. it's didn't adjust to the existing environment. it terraformed it and created the necessary conditions itself. it increased the oxygen and displaced the dominant methane. think about that for a minute. we're not talking about an accident.

it's much more efficient to specialize. it costs less energy to be really good at something while having partnerships with other cells that can supply other needs you cannot produce. i believe it's classic darwinism but at the cellular level.

you are not you. you are a collection of specialized cells that created the necessary conditions themselves which paved the way to your consciousness. you are a super-organism. you have 10 to the 13 power cells that are 'human' and 10 to the 14 bacteria and even 10 to 100 times more viruses. so if you were to judge things based on the number and types of cells you that are made of, you could not call yourself genuinely human.

in this sense the question isn't what can life do, but what can't it do?

[onejayhawk]

They recycled?

Cute. So where are the cemeteries, the factory foundations, the equivalent of railroad tracks?

Which is exactly where according to you?

Everywhere you would think to look and some you might not. Sol III for starters.

There is no ergo here. You have all sort of assumptions here, and seem to need to look up the word sentience.

I could reference Brin's Uplift work but let's just say tool users at least as smart as we are.

However, I make zero assumptions. The Fermi hypothesis covers everything. The numbers either diverge or converge, ie expand to fill all available resources or they approach zero. There are no other options.

J

[Steve 2.0]

Cute.

This is as far as I got.

[Kevin Seitzer]

However, I make zero assumptions. The Fermi hypothesis covers everything. The numbers either diverge or converge, ie expand to fill all available resources or they approach zero. There are no other options.

J

The numbers could be many different values. Why do you say they have to diverge or converge?

[onejayhawk]

The numbers could be many different values. Why do you say they have to diverge or converge?

It's built into the math.

We live in a middle-aged galaxy, hence multiple billions of years old. We are talking extreme amounts of biological time, for practical purposes, a near infinite amount. Everything our region of space has undergone occurred millions or billions of years earlier in other parts of the galaxy. Thus we have the limiting cases. If there is biological success, it will saturate the medium, meaning the whole galaxy including our corner. If not, then not.

What we observe is that we are alone, not hip deep in other life forms. The math compels the conclusion that spacefaring life is not expected, even once, in a galaxy-sized sample. That would make us an extreme outlier in the probabilities, granted, but the math allows that. It also allows the possibility that we are an outlier in the entire universe, or in a multitude of universes.

J

[billbuckner]

Cute.

[Steve 2.0]

Cute.

This is as far as I got.

[onejayhawk]

Cute.

Not at all. Depressing, yes.

If we were early in stellar evolution it would be different. Then you could explain the lack of observed intelligent life by making the controlling parameters stable functions instead of constants. Thus requiring a synchronicity of conditions that had not yet occurred. However, if you stretch the time frame significantly that changes.

In the famous illustration, we may not be the collected works of Shakespeare typed by monkeys, but we are at least Hamlet's soliloquy.

J

[rhd]

A few things:

1 - From the video that Nully referred to in the original post: "... the universe might be so vast that, while it might have hundreds of civilizations in it, the numbers are still in favor of that, but they are so far from each other that they may never be able to communicate, or, if they do, it wont happen for billions of years." That is a quote from Arthur C. Clarke, which starts at about 8:42 of the video.
2 - Maybe there have been many intelligent civilizations, even in our own galaxy, but these may have existed only for a short period of time, destroyed either by a natural event (gamma ray burst, nearby supernova, asteroid/planet impact, etc.) or by themselves (nuclear bombs, super-intelligent hostile robots, "grey goo", etc.). This also was mentioned in the video. They may tend to get wiped out before they have a chance to communicate with or travel to other intelligent civilizations.
3 - Species much more intelligent than us could evolve but w/o the ability to make sophisticated tools (like super intelligent sea creatures, like dolphins and whales). These creatures would effectively be stuck on their home planet and also prevented from being able to create the technology to explore the cosmos or find other civilizations.
4 - Another item that noone's mentioned yet: Among all the seemingly rare characteristics of the Earth, another may be our relatively small size. Scientists think now that habitable "super-earths", at least 2-3 times bigger than Earth, may be much more common than Earth-sized planets. This could impact a species' ability to travel away from their planet. It's hard enough for spacecraft to escape the Earth's gravity (must exceed 25,000 mph). It would be much harder to escape a much bigger planet w much more gravity. So, even if an intelligent species had the ability to make sophisticated tools, they could still be trapped on their home planet.

[Fresno Bob]

It's built into the math.

We live in a middle-aged galaxy, hence multiple billions of years old. We are talking extreme amounts of biological time, for practical purposes, a near infinite amount. Everything our region of space has undergone occurred millions or billions of years earlier in other parts of the galaxy. Thus we have the limiting cases. If there is biological success, it will saturate the medium, meaning the whole galaxy including our corner. If not, then not.

What we observe is that we are alone, not hip deep in other life forms. The math compels the conclusion that spacefaring life is not expected, even once, in a galaxy-sized sample. That would make us an extreme outlier in the probabilities, granted, but the math allows that. It also allows the possibility that we are an outlier in the entire universe, or in a multitude of universes.

J

why does it have to be biological, it is tons more likely that machine probes would be the way an advanced entity would explore the galaxy. There could be a probe above the Earth right now and we'd have little to no chance to spot it or recognize it as such. Or it could have probed us a billion years ago, or 100,000 years, and we'd have no idea. We could be in a galactic backwater compared to the center of the galaxy

[Steve 2.0]

why does it have to be biological, it is tons more likely that machine probes would be the way an advanced entity would explore the galaxy. There could be a probe above the Earth right now and we'd have little to no chance to spot it or recognize it as such. Or it could have probed us a billion years ago, or 100,000 years, and we'd have no idea. We could be in a galactic backwater compared to the center of the galaxy

Galactic Backwater would be a good name for something.....(I'm not doing the band shtick anymore)

[Kevin Seitzer]

Galactic Backwater would be a good name for something.....(I'm not doing the band shtick anymore)

For a bottled water brand?

[Steve 2.0]

For a bottled water brand?

Where's that damn like button I requested?