10 unsettling answers to the fermi paradox

[Fresno Bob]

It's always fun when we bring in subjectivity to a math equation!

You are correct that they don't have to be "that big", but if you start out assuming one of the unknown factors required for life is 1 in 1000 but in reality it is 1 in a trillion, it means that your 100 or 200 Billion on the front end doesn't help you much.

no argument here, math is cold, but even at odds of "1 in a trillion" we are talking about 200 Billion Galaxies, each with say 100 Billion stars (which is a conservative count for the Milky Way) and even a "1 in a trillion" number still has meaning. They think there are a trillion stars in Andromeda alone for example

[Ken]

no argument here, math is cold, but even at odds of "1 in a trillion" we are talking about 200 Billion Galaxies, each with say 100 Billion stars (which is a conservative count for the Milky Way) and even a "1 in a trillion" number still has meaning. They think there are a trillion stars in Andromeda alone for example

Right, but there's no number big enough that an inverse ratio with that same number in the denominator doesn't offset it, that's the point. The exact number was not topical, it was that for ever "huge magnitude" we throw out there for the number of galaxies/stars/planets, there may be an equivalently scaled unlikely scenario required for life.

[Sour Masher]

Well, they are ugly for sure:

I think that is a fine looking vehicle.

[Sour Masher]

There are different key variables in play. But he diversity of life on our planet, and the fact that some of it doesn't even require solar energy, I think life is probably much more common than some might think. Like there may even be some right in our solar system. I'm about 100% sure there is other life in the universe. But there is a long way from microbes to us, and a whole lot has to go just right to get here, and even more needs to go right to get to the point of being big enough to be a vast interstellar empire. The Goldie locks zone we are in on that makes me think that is much, much rarer. Of course, if there are millions of planets teeming with simple life forms, we have no way of detecting that. I still think it is very likely.

And Nullner's video outlines a lot of explanations for why we may not have found evidence for super advanced intelligent civilizations yet. But some other reasons include how how long it takes to get to where we are, and how common extinction events happen that reset the clock. How we are finding that most planets that seem suitable to life are bigger than Earth and it would be impossible with what we know to create chemical propulsion to get off those planets. Also, look how long a run the dinosaurs had. Lots of life for millions of years, but none of it was gonna colonize space and build dyson spheres. We are only here, because of an extinction event, the fifth, I think, on our planet. Maybe our kind of life, the kind that aspires to colonize the stars, would typically take 1000 extinction events to reset the natural order to get to. Who knows?

I agree, we have no idea, and I agree some of the variables to get from nothing to us might be incredibly small. But I woild bet everything I have that there is other life of some kind in the universe, although that is an unprovable hypothesis. I hope we find some in my life time. It would not surprise me if it were so very common that we find microbes on Europa or something like that somewhere in our neighborhood.

[billbuckner]

Psalm 19:1 The heavens declare the glory of God, and the sky above proclaims his handiwork.

Plus studying space gives us something to play with. God's gift to us.

You gotta respect the relentless of Christian trolls. Like all trolling, driven by a deep sense of insecurity and fear.

Never change Rotojunkie

[johnnya24]

Never change Rotojunkie

Exactly my point ... wait no ... I want that changed ... uhhh DAMN!

Fuckin' buckner

Bucky > Bill

[Ken]

Exactly my point

I know much of this is in jest but I found the original back and forth off-putting. I agree with most of what you post, but this one was odd.

Gregg's not a troll, and the concept didn't even fit. There was no "insecurity and fear" in what he posted, he was just giving his view on the topic. You may disagree with him and that's fine, but calling him a troll because he has different views of the topic was odd to me. And the followup about insecurity and fear was worse. These type exchanges work best when we start with the idea that we're not all coming from the same place, and that's okay.

It's interesting to me how Christianity-bashing has become so widely accepted, especially in the very sensitive/PC culture of recent years. I wonder what the reaction would be if a less mainstream religion was stereotyped or put down instead? If it were switched to "Jewish" rather than "Christian", we'd be talking about Anti-semitism which has gotten a lot of people in trouble in the court of public opinion recently. I wonder why the same "rules" don't apply when it is a Christian viewpoint being trashed?

Anyway I'm off wayyyyy topic relative to the fermi paradox. And apologies to johnny, I don't mean to target you specifically, this just brought up some thoughts.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I think it's fair to say that the math shows us that, even though we've seen no evidence of life elsewhere in our solar system, and found no evidence so far of intelligent civilizations nearby from searching the radio spectrum, that the universe is so vast and the number of earth-like planets so numerous, that we cannot begin to get our minds around what a tiny speck in the universe our own solar system is.

To say that the math proves anything about the probability of occurrence of life or intelligent civilizations in the universe, however, is going too far. The math says the denominator (the number of opportunities) is huge. But it can't say anything about the size or scale of the numerator (occurrence of life given an opportunity) or the ratio between the two.

[Steve 2.0]

I think it's fair to say that the math shows us that, even though we've seen no evidence of life elsewhere in our solar system, and found no evidence so far of intelligent civilizations nearby from searching the radio spectrum, that the universe is so vast and the number of earth-like planets so numerous, that we cannot begin to get our minds around what a tiny speck in the universe our own solar system is.

But we're so special!! (at least I am)

[Gregg]

But we're so special!! (at least I am)

This is where the math and the Bible are in agreement. You are special.

[Steve 2.0]

This is where the math and the Bible are in agreement. You are special.

Oh, you have no idea.

[Fresno Bob]

Oh, you have no idea.

Chrissy does

[Steve 2.0]

Chrissy does

Well, Chrissy, The Bible, and Math....that's the trifecta.

Although, I'm not sure where The Bible indicates how special I am.

[Sour Masher]

Well, Chrissy, The Bible, and Math....that's the trifecta.

Although, I'm not sure where The Bible indicates how special I am.

Dude, the BIG MAN, creator of the entire universe, with its billions and billions of stars and planets made YOU in HIS image! Go look in the mirror, Steve. That handsome devil looking back is how the creator of the universe looks. And he loves you so much, he sacrificed his only Son as part of a pact that makes it so if you believe and worship him, you get to live forever! That makes you pretty freaking special.

If you feel less special, because there are like 8 billion people on this planet, don't worry, cuz most of them, including many who call themselves Christians, don't really, truly follow the rules, so they won't get to live forever. Also, even if they did, you'd still be more special than the 10 trillion ants walking around not being eternal, or even the 100 or so Mississippi Gopher Frogs hopping around waiting for their inevitable end, both as individuals and a species.

[Steve 2.0]

Dude, the BIG MAN, creator of the entire universe, with its billions and billions of stars and planets made YOU in HIS image! Go look in the mirror, Steve. That handsome devil looking back is how the creator of the universe looks. And he loves you so much, he sacrificed his only Son as part of a pact that makes it so if you believe and worship him, you get to live forever! That makes you pretty freaking special.

If you feel less special, because there are like 8 billion people on this planet, don't worry, cuz most of them, including many who call themselves Christians, don't really, truly follow the rules, so they won't get to live forever. Also, even if they did, you'd still be more special than the 10 trillion ants walking around not being eternal, or even the 100 or so Mississippi Gopher Frogs hopping around waiting for their inevitable end, both as individuals and a species.

Mississippi Gopher Frogs would be a good name for a football team.