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Thread: 2K19: Willians Astudillio

  1. #1
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    2K19: Willians Astudillio

    I have to admit I know next to nothing about him besides the fact he was known as that chubby guy last season, and that I thought his first name was 'Williams" and not "Willians." But when I saw on the current NFBC ADP list that he's being drafted as the #11 fantasy catcher, despite the fact he might actually be the Twins 3rd string backstop, that caught my attention.

    Last year, he hit a fantastic .355/.371/.516 in 93 ABs, but what was really amazing is that he struck out only 3 times. Now I'm very intrigued.

    Then I checked his minor league numbers, and wow! This guy is a throwback to the 1940s, when not striking out was one of the more important baseball skills. I'm going to increase the font size for added emphasis:

    HE'S STRUCK OUT ONLY 81 TIMES IN 2,265 ABs

    That's a contact rate of 96.5%. How is that even possible?

    He doesn't have a lot of power, although it has increased of late. And he doesn't do much else, but with that contact rate, he should hit for a relatively high average (>.280) despite his heftiness. And he's 27 years old.

    So what can we expect from Astudillio in 2019? Why is he being drafted so high, if he's not even a lock to make the Twins? Catchers are a wasteland, but still, this seems pretty risky to me. Thoughts?

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    I picked him up in a keeper league when he was called up last year and then, like an idiot, dropped him due to a roster crunch while going for a title.

    The other fascinating nugget besides his K rate is his BB rate. He only walked 85 times in all those PA.

    And he hit just 29 HRs.

    So if you are a position player and this guy comes up, get ready because he's putting the ball in play!

    For fantasy purposes he's relevant because he's a catcher. If he gets playing time, he's valuable.

    Watch out for some BABIP regression but on whole he's still had a great AVG in the minors so I think its reasonable to expect ~.280.

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    How is his defense? Framing?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gregg View Post
    How is his defense? Framing?
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-...ans-astudillo/

    "Astudillo is primarily a catcher, and BP’s framing metrics graded his minor-league receiving in a positive manner, but he’s played all over the field and has already manned four positions for the Twins. In an age when versatility is prized, Astudillo is an awkwardly shaped human Swiss Army knife."

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    This is just another fine example of why I love this site.

    Thanks gentlemen.

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    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    And the Twins also have Jason Castro and Mitch Garver in front of him. I mean, neither are insurmountable in the least, but it's still very surprising to me that Astudillio is being drafted not only as if he's the starter, or at least as someone who will be getting 400+ PAs, but also ahead of other catchers like Alfaro, Zunino & Welington Castillo. And at his current ADP of 232 over the last 30 days (I'd assume this is a 2-catcher format), he's being taken over Margot, CJ Cron, Tyler White, etc.

    Is this a case of fantasy owners getting ahead of themselves on a sleeper? Or is this a tip off?

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    I wouldn't invest more than a buck at this point, he's not a clear favorite to even make the roster. He won the hearts of the few Twins fans left with a lot of hustle and "interesting" appearance...listed as 3rd string catcher and buried everywhere else.
    "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    And the Twins also have Jason Castro and Mitch Garver in front of him. I mean, neither are insurmountable in the least, but it's still very surprising to me that Astudillio is being drafted not only as if he's the starter, or at least as someone who will be getting 400+ PAs, but also ahead of other catchers like Alfaro, Zunino & Welington Castillo. And at his current ADP of 232 over the last 30 days (I'd assume this is a 2-catcher format), he's being taken over Margot, CJ Cron, Tyler White, etc.

    Is this a case of fantasy owners getting ahead of themselves on a sleeper? Or is this a tip off?
    I am going with getting ahead of themselves.

    Too many names that you listed that should go before him. Without a deeper dive I think only Castro falls behind him for the names you posted.

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    Garver isn't great defensively. Before they signed Cruz I could have seen him getting time at DH. Castro stinks. But maybe they want him to catch some of their young pitchers.

    Right now MLB's depth chart has Astudillo starting at 3B. He's a versatile guy but I'm not sure he beats out Sano. Of course, Sano could easily be suspended or banished to the minors. There's a lot of moving parts in Minnesota right now.

    Astudillo has been destroying the Venezuelan Winter League. That might be driving some hype. Here's a link: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/a...ason-home-run/

    Also, if you listen to the Effectively Wild podcast, he's a legend.

    Can he provide 400 ABs across a bunch of positions and hit .280 with 15 HRs? Maybe. He has upside for a much better AVG than that even though he isn't exactly speedy.

  10. #10
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    From CBS:

    In the three-true-outcome era, Willians Astudillo is an anomaly. He rarely walks (2.1 BB%) and rarely strikes out (3.1 K%). He led the majors with a 91.7% contact rate (min. 90 PA). A solid season at Triple-A (12 home runs, .782 OPS) resulted in a late-season callup and extensive playing time down the stretch. He hit .355, and after not hitting for any power from 2009 to 2016, he appears to finally be a contributor there as well (.161 ISO). However, questions about his defensive home are the reason he is now with his fourth organization. Listed at 5-foot-9, 225 pounds, he may not have the glove to be more than a backup behind the plate, and while he also played third base, second base and left field after reaching the majors for the first time, he is a below-average defender at all of those spots. Even in a part-time role, his eligibility at catcher will make him valuable in most roto leagues, as he could lead all catchers in batting average.

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