2K19: Brian Dozier

[revo]

Brian Dozier, meet cliff. Cliff, meet Brian Dozier.

Dozier went off the cliff last year, dropping to career lows in virtually every statistical category. It was very surprising because Dozier seemed to be a virtual lock to keep up his typical production. He was so bad that once Minnesota traded him away, he was buried by the Dodgers on their bench and became a persona non grata.

But if you look at his ratios, they kind of maintained their career norms (BB%, K%, HR%, etc.) The only major damage appears to have been in HR/FB ratio and BABIP, which plunged to .240 and probably resulted in his .215 BA.

At 31, I don't think he's done, and whomever signs him is probably getting a bargain. I'd look for a solid rebound from Dozier in 2019 - -not to the levels of his great 2016 campaign, but maybe closer to his career norms.

[Sour Masher]

I agree completely. While there are some disturbing historical precedents that come to mind for offensive-first 2bman that inexplicably fall off a cliff never to climb back to former glory, I don't think Dozier is done. I think he was hurt and while 2016 was likely a career year, I think he will likely outperform whatever contract he gets in real baseball and fantasy baseball.

[joncarlos]

This is a guy who hit .244, .242 and .236 in 3 consecutive seasons when he was younger. Then he spiked a .280 and .300 BABIP and got up to a respectable .268 in 2016 and .271 in 2017. Perhaps not coincidentally, his IFFB% were not so awful in 16-17. But he's always hit a ton of pop-ups. Last year his IFFB% was 17.1. He actually posted a career high hard-contact rate, so maybe there's hope that the power isn't gone. He still stole 12 bases. I just don't think that .240 BABIP was a complete outlier.

Give me the .235, 24 HR, 12 SB projection from Depth Charts. I do like his durability. But it might not come with 100 runs any more since he may not get on base enough to hit at the top of the order.

[Gregg]

He seems like an early toss out at auction. If everyone is afraid we get a bargain. If a few are believers they can pay too much.

[Sour Masher]

I like his landing spot. He should have a good year for the Nationals. As long as you don't expect 2016-17 numbers, I think you'll be pleased. I think he produces another 2015 stat line, and that ain't bad.

[revo]

Brian Dozier 2018 with the Dodgers:
143 AB, 16 R, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 4 SB, .182/.300/.350

Brian Dozier 2019 with the Nationals:
130 AB, 12 R, 5 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, .192/.295/.323

[Sour Masher]

It is the curse of the 2bman fall off. I can think of so many top producers at 2b that fell off a cliff and never climbed back to being any good.

[madducks]

Dozier looks like the classic case of an average hitter having good production during his age 26-31 seasons with the peak coming during his age 29-30 seasons. But, yeah the decline after that has been rapid and the drop off has been severe.

[pitbull]

I should have read Revo first half assessment then stop right there. But no I drafted him and he helping to kill my team. Maybe there a Carpenter rebound in him. No choice but to ride him out. This season might go down as "you sure can pick them Pitbull". Sigh!

[revo]

When Trea Turner gets back in a couple of weeks, what are the odds that Dozier gets DFA'd? He's only on the one-year contract with the Nats, so they could just eat the rest and move on.

[pitbull]

Difo was sent down for Turner and Hendrick is starting tonight at 1B. Likely we should see some type of rotation between Hendrick, Parra and Dozier until Adams and Zimmerman are activated. Dozier has a little more time but his window could be shut soon. Kinda of feels like Dr Strange in Infinity War where he see only 1 possibility out of 14 million where Dozier succeeds.

[swampdragon]

any reason to keep Dozier over
Lourdes Gurriel
or am I just wanting a sort of shiny new toy?

[Hornsby]

Dozier is stutter stepping towards some respectability...3-5 today with 2 doubles and he's got 7 homers.

I fear Gurriel is still a mystery...

[Sharky]

What about Kieboom? He could be up again at some point too, no?

[pitbull]

Last 54 at bats R 8 HR 4 RBI 14 BA 333 OBP 393 SLG 648. He is now up to BA 229 HR 9. Still have something left in the tank?