The effect of the "opener" on fantasy baseball

[madducks]

Now that manager Kevin Cash and the Tampa Bay Rays have proven that using a relief pitcher (the opener) in the first inning before bringing in the "starter" is a viable strategy as evidenced by their 90 wins in 2018, more teams are expected to follow suit this coming season.

Is this the beginning of the end for the quality start stat as we know it? Will the quality start have to be redefined as any 6 innings (not just the first 6) or more with 3 er or less thrown by a pitcher during a game?

Will there be less of a need for sixth and seventh inning relievers now?

Will we now see an increase in 15 and 20 game winners since the "starters" will usually be pitching one inning further into the game and have more chances to earn a decision?

[revo]

It could be. But I think only the “poor” framchises will resort to this strategy. But yes, it may KO a few fantasy teams from fielding many SPs.

[Moonlight J]

It could be. But I think only the “poor” framchises will resort to this strategy. But yes, it may KO a few fantasy teams from fielding many SPs.

Poor thinking ones, yea. For those with rotowire subs, you can read what I wrote up here - https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/article.php?id=42488.

Some examples - ERA times through the order:

Odorizzi: 2.71, 3.39, 11.44
Ray: 2.81, 2.59, 9.13
Weaver: 4.30, 3.19, 10.50

Those are guys who saw their skills fall apart third time through but managers left them out there anyhow because "that's the way it's always been done."





The times through the order penalty is real.

[TranaGreg]

Poor thinking ones, yea. For those with rotowire subs, you can read what I wrote up here - https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/article.php?id=42488.

Some examples - ERA times through the order:

Odorizzi: 2.71, 3.39, 11.44
Ray: 2.81, 2.59, 9.13
Weaver: 4.30, 3.19, 10.50

Those are guys who saw their skills fall apart third time through but managers left them out there anyhow because "that's the way it's always been done."





The times through the order penalty is real.

Makes a lot of sense to me - pitchers that can't/don't change things up each time thru the order become predictable, esp. to good hitters.

I don't have a subscription, but the question that comes to mind for me is, given that those pitchers should be held to about 5 IP (roughly two times through the order), does it matter if those are innings 1-5, or 2-6 or 3-7?

[Moonlight J]

Correct. Some guys are exposed third time through, mostly because they're 2-pitch guys. That, and the decreased velocity deeper into games makes margin of error thinner. The Opener strategy allows guys to come in and face the first 3-4 guys, and then allows the starter to begin his outing by missing 2 to 3 of the best bats in the lineup. Managers have long been reticent to go with a quick hook as they don't trust their pen to get 12 outs at the end of the game, but getting 3 early and 9 late looks like a repeatable path for a number of clubs in 2019.

Here's a nice list of guys that could benefit from reduced exposure to a third time through the lineup: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/sp...ayers=&filter=

Conversely, flip that list by wOBA and look for guys that stand out as "WTF???!" - such as Dan Straily, Trevor Williams, and Dereck Rodriguez.

[TranaGreg]

Managers have long been reticent to go with a quick hook as they don't trust their pen to get 12 outs at the end of the game, but getting 3 early and 9 late looks like a repeatable path for a number of clubs in 2019.

I see what you're saying, but this is the part I don't get - 9 late outs with a shortened pen (because one of your better arms was used in the first inning) doesn't seem like a significantly better option than getting 12 outs with a full pen.

[Ken]

I see what you're saying, but this is the part I don't get - 9 late outs with a shortened pen (because one of your better arms was used in the first inning) doesn't seem like a significantly better option than getting 12 outs with a full pen.

I think the 3 outs weighs much more heavily than 1 relief pitcher in that balance.

To me the scenario comes down to delayed decisions strategy. As the manager make your decision with more information available by delaying it an inning. That's a common component of game theory.

[TranaGreg]

I think the 3 outs weighs much more heavily than 1 relief pitcher in that balance.

To me the scenario comes down to delayed decisions strategy. As the manager make your decision with more information available by delaying it an inning. That's a common component of game theory.

so you're saying that if I'm the manager I'd rather make my decision about whether to leave Odorizzi to go through the order a third time in the 7th instead of the 6th ... yeah, I can see some merit in that

[Moonlight J]

I think the 3 outs weighs much more heavily than 1 relief pitcher in that balance.

To me the scenario comes down to delayed decisions strategy. As the manager make your decision with more information available by delaying it an inning. That's a common component of game theory.

The other part is starting a game with a reliever takes the stress out of trying to get a guy ready quickly enough. If he's pitching in the 1st, he will be warm when you need him. If you wait and go batter by batter the third time through, you could either burn a reliever too early or bring them in too late.

[Todd Zola]

There's also a cat-and-mouse game with platoon scenarios, especially if the primary pitcher is a southpaw like Ryan Yarbrough. The Brewers came close to taking down the Dodgers because Counsell forced Roberts hand on a few occasions.

[DMT]

So why won't teams just use this same logic for innings 1-3 or 1-4?

[Todd Zola]

Teams won't publicly admit it, but the opportunity for the primary pitcher to log a win without throwing five innings is a way to entice them to buy in. Yeah, everyone should do what the manager says but it's not always that easy.

[Moonlight J]

So why won't teams just use this same logic for innings 1-3 or 1-4?

We could see that this year. We saw some clubs just Jonny Bullpen an entire game this year. You'd also have to overcome the theory that only certain guys have the mindset/gut to pitch in the 8th and 9th.

[TranaGreg]

We could see that this year. We saw some clubs just Jonny Bullpen an entire game this year. You'd also have to overcome the theory that only certain guys have the mindset/gut to pitch in the 8th and 9th.

re: going 1-3 or 1-4, I guess another element is, if my team is beating up on the other side's pitching I'd probably rather let a Jake Odorizzi throw 6 or 7 innings as opposed to burning up my pen; so I wouldn't want to wait too long before bringing in the starter (if that's the plan, as opposed to an all-bullpen outing).

[cavebird]

As for the effect on fantasy baseball, being in a league with 6 SP's and 5 RP's on each roster, it is a bit of a mess. Our executive committee is currently considering rule changes to make openers remain RP's and "followers" (and Yarbrough is the poster child) remain SP's, but we haven't decided on anything yet. It is tricky to come up with a rule for followers that doesn't sweep regular long-relievers in with it.