Keeper list quality

[Ken]

Firstly, they're both fairly priced IMO. Second, if he kept both Sale & Stanton in addition to his other high-ticket items (Trout & Grienke), he'd go into the auction keeping $170, which would be the most I've ever recalled being kept in this league. FYI, the most $$ kept last season was $142, and the mean amount is usually in the $80s. Keeping that much in player salaries would severely limit his flexibility, IMO.

I'd submit that there should be no upper or lower bounds on $s kept, as long as you stay within the rules. If you are in a 23 man roster league for 260 that allows you to keep 15 players, and you have 15 studs that total $252 leaving you $8 for 8 players, I don't know why you wouldn't do that (I've seen plenty of stars/studs teams win with that many $1 players so why not?)

Similarly if you have 15 players who are great values at $1 each, I'd go for that too. And then buy 8 studs in the auction averaging $31 each.

The total $s spent only matters AFTER the auction. If you run out of $ and don't have a good team yet, you failed. And if you have extra $ at the end that you could have used to improve your team, you failed too. But none of those matters until after the auction.

If you can't keep both Sale and Stanton, lets say, for instance, that you keep a $5 player instead of Stanton. Then a few players into the auction you spend $46 on a top player. You are in the same spot as you would have been if you had kept Sale and Stanton and bought a $5 player early.

I think the analysis of a keeper list is largely predicated on individual analysis of each keeper - the macro analysis of the team as a whole should be done later in the game when you are rounding out your team.

[The Dane]

I'd submit that there should be no upper or lower bounds on $s kept, as long as you stay within the rules. If you are in a 23 man roster league for 260 that allows you to keep 15 players, and you have 15 studs that total $252 leaving you $8 for 8 players, I don't know why you wouldn't do that (I've seen plenty of stars/studs teams win with that many $1 players so why not?)

Similarly if you have 15 players who are great values at $1 each, I'd go for that too. And then buy 8 studs in the auction averaging $31 each.

The total $s spent only matters AFTER the auction. If you run out of $ and don't have a good team yet, you failed. And if you have extra $ at the end that you could have used to improve your team, you failed too. But none of those matters until after the auction.

If you can't keep both Sale and Stanton, lets say, for instance, that you keep a $5 player instead of Stanton. Then a few players into the auction you spend $46 on a top player. You are in the same spot as you would have been if you had kept Sale and Stanton and bought a $5 player early.

I think the analysis of a keeper list is largely predicated on individual analysis of each keeper - the macro analysis of the team as a whole should be done later in the game when you are rounding out your team.

For the most part, I agree with this. The decision in keeping Stanton/Sale is not about draft flexibility, but who is going to be available. If I have Stanton at $46, and there will be several OFers that I like better that I can get for $46 or close to it, then I toss him back. I'll budget $46 for that spot, and be happy if I grab a superior player for that or a couple more. If there's only a few (or even none) OFers that fits the bill, I keep Stanton. I wouldn't worry too about draft flexibility at this point. Just get the best value you can. Sometimes that means you keep $170 to field your best team, sometimes it means keeping only $80. Obviously, upper-echelon rosters have more expensive keeper lists. Rebuilders have cheaper ones. I think Mike is definitely in the former.

[revo]

I'd submit that there should be no upper or lower bounds on $s kept, as long as you stay within the rules. If you are in a 23 man roster league for 260 that allows you to keep 15 players, and you have 15 studs that total $252 leaving you $8 for 8 players, I don't know why you wouldn't do that (I've seen plenty of stars/studs teams win with that many $1 players so why not?)

Similarly if you have 15 players who are great values at $1 each, I'd go for that too. And then buy 8 studs in the auction averaging $31 each.

The total $s spent only matters AFTER the auction. If you run out of $ and don't have a good team yet, you failed. And if you have extra $ at the end that you could have used to improve your team, you failed too. But none of those matters until after the auction.

If you can't keep both Sale and Stanton, lets say, for instance, that you keep a $5 player instead of Stanton. Then a few players into the auction you spend $46 on a top player. You are in the same spot as you would have been if you had kept Sale and Stanton and bought a $5 player early.

I think the analysis of a keeper list is largely predicated on individual analysis of each keeper - the macro analysis of the team as a whole should be done later in the game when you are rounding out your team.

The point was that by "flexibility", it meant he would be limited in his spending ability at the auction. We don't know exactly who will be available yet, but there are already some top players out there who may be worth a $40-$50 bid more than locking in a Stanton and/or Sale would. I'd prefer to take the risk to get one of the newly available studs who may be a better player.

It also depends on MJL's drafting style. Does he want to go into the auction with just $90 and only a shot at maybe one $30 player, then a host of $10-$15 types? Or would he prefer another $46-$97 to get a new base $50 player with a couple of other $25-$30 players? I tend to spread the wealth and hate getting a bunch of dollar days players. So IMO, based on his roster and the potential availability of other top players, no I would not keep both Stanton & Sale, and would even consider tossing back both. I'm in the same league with him and am contemplating whether to keep a $45 JD Martinez (and I'm only keeping another $64 in players).

[Controller Jacobs]

I wouldn’t keep Sale at 51
I’d hold onto Trout, assuming there is an in-season salary cap. Contending teams will value that space

[Ken]

The point was that by "flexibility", it meant he would be limited in his spending ability at the auction. We don't know exactly who will be available yet, but there are already some top players out there who may be worth a $40-$50 bid more than locking in a Stanton and/or Sale would. I'd prefer to take the risk to get one of the newly available studs who may be a better player.

I think you are right that I'm leaving out flexibility. And I think it's because I'm used to drafting in good leagues with good owners.

In leagues like that, where owners know the player pool and understand inflation, there aren't many "bargains" to be had at the top end. So, sure, you can get a $40-$50 player but will he be worth much more than Stanton? I don't think he would, especially in your league where I've seen that there's some extremely intelligent drafters.

I'd think JDM is worth keeping as long as inflation is ~30% or above.

[Ken]

I wouldn’t keep Sale at 51

Curious what you think Sale is worth in an 18 team keeper league then? With the inflation described previously in the thread I think $51 is reasonable.

[mjl]

Prices from last year for SP over $30: Kershaw 51, Carrasco 37, CMartinez 35, Archer 33, Darvish 34, Keuchel 31, Tanaka 30

(This is why I think Greinke is worth keeping also.)

But it's true that we have a fairly restrictive salary cap so Trout might actually be more valuable post-auction. The cap is what revo said below, so the $50ish players really only get dealt if the team acquiring them had injuries that made them give up their expensive players.

[revo]

FYI, the cap in RJEL is $40 over starting budget for April before increasing to $100 by June 1.

[cavebird]

I think Alonso is the one to drop. I don't see a problem keeping Stanton and Sale with that good of a keeper list. Basically, you are pre-draft shopping, but that is what you do when you have a good keeper list---it avoids the danger of a crazy auction that leaves you without what you need. If that other team has some high-priced talent, I would definitely advise that team to keep it as well. If the rest of your keeper list was a mess, you don't keep either---you want draft chaos in that situation. Just keep those, get a couple of more studs at auction and target the bargains you want. You have such a high floor as a team with that keeper list.

[Big Tymer]

Prices from last year for SP over $30: Kershaw 51, Carrasco 37, CMartinez 35, Archer 33, Darvish 34, Keuchel 31, Tanaka 30

(This is why I think Greinke is worth keeping also.)

But it's true that we have a fairly restrictive salary cap so Trout might actually be more valuable post-auction. The cap is what revo said below, so the $50ish players really only get dealt if the team acquiring them had injuries that made them give up their expensive players.

Based on initial analysis, there will not be a lot of top starters available so I fully expect them to go for a premium (which is why I'm leaning to the $37 Carrasco as my last keeper). Sale won't go for less than that unless his arm barks during spring.