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Thread: Lee Smith & Harold Baines Elected to the HOF

  1. #31
    Big Leaguer Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judge Jude View Post
    spoiler alerts:
    the Clemens types tend to fade late.
    Yeah, the sabermetric-community-cause inductees tend to need >85% on the public ballot to make >75% from the whole electorate.

    You can see, for example, that Bonds and Clemens have only gained two votes each over the same pool of voters from last year. Given that they finished at 56% and 57% last year, that's not going to get them anywhere close to induction.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  2. #32
    Big Leaguer Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Edgar Martinez is one who looks like he might make it in his final year. Mussina, despite being at 83% in the public ballot so far, probably comes up just a hair shy of 75% total? That's my guess right now, though it looks like it will be close.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  3. #33
    Big Leaguer Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    My guess is that the class this year is Rivera, Halladay, and Martinez. Mussina comes up just short. And Clemens, Bonds, and Schilling show some gains but are still well short of election. Larry Walker with big gain in vote share but also still well short. No one else over 50%.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  4. #34
    Martinez will definitely get in to make 3.

    Mussina will be in the 70s - needs 75 pct. should be very close
    36th yr in same 12-team NL 5x5
    rallied to within 10 pts out of 3rd at the ASB
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    SP Scherzer 44, Keuchel LD, CSmith 1, Roark 8, Samardzija 1, Mahle, Pivetta 10
    RP Jeffress 1, Dyson
    C Realmuto 13, C Posey 12, 1B Votto 27, 3B TFrazier 2, 13 Belt 10, 2B KMarte LD, SS DeJong LD, 2S BCrawford 9
    OF Harper LD, Eaton LD, CDickerson 17, Dyson 8, Cooper, UT Beaty
    IL: SP Cueto 1, RP TGuerrero, SS EGonzalez 2, OF Bruce LD
    minors: OFs NWilliams 2, Daza, RDavis

  5. #35
    Triple-A
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    is any site carrying up to date results on public cards?

  6. #36
    https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...Ceqm-knNxexBw8

    that's the tracker - happy New Year!
    36th yr in same 12-team NL 5x5
    rallied to within 10 pts out of 3rd at the ASB
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    SP Scherzer 44, Keuchel LD, CSmith 1, Roark 8, Samardzija 1, Mahle, Pivetta 10
    RP Jeffress 1, Dyson
    C Realmuto 13, C Posey 12, 1B Votto 27, 3B TFrazier 2, 13 Belt 10, 2B KMarte LD, SS DeJong LD, 2S BCrawford 9
    OF Harper LD, Eaton LD, CDickerson 17, Dyson 8, Cooper, UT Beaty
    IL: SP Cueto 1, RP TGuerrero, SS EGonzalez 2, OF Bruce LD
    minors: OFs NWilliams 2, Daza, RDavis

  7. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    Mariano Rivera: named on 100% of ballots
    Ballots were due 12/31/18. Do you think making these vote counts public makes it more or less likely that Mo gets 100%? I don't know if there are still the "DiMaggio didn't get 100% so I won't vote for Mo" types of guys still voting. I can see where some voters, in certain years, would fill the ballot without a sure fire electee like Mo knowing he will get 75% anyway but the ballot seems a little sparse to do that this year.

  8. #38
    he won't get 100 pct.
    36th yr in same 12-team NL 5x5
    rallied to within 10 pts out of 3rd at the ASB
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    SP Scherzer 44, Keuchel LD, CSmith 1, Roark 8, Samardzija 1, Mahle, Pivetta 10
    RP Jeffress 1, Dyson
    C Realmuto 13, C Posey 12, 1B Votto 27, 3B TFrazier 2, 13 Belt 10, 2B KMarte LD, SS DeJong LD, 2S BCrawford 9
    OF Harper LD, Eaton LD, CDickerson 17, Dyson 8, Cooper, UT Beaty
    IL: SP Cueto 1, RP TGuerrero, SS EGonzalez 2, OF Bruce LD
    minors: OFs NWilliams 2, Daza, RDavis

  9. #39
    Big Leaguer Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    My predictions:

    Rivera 99.8% (I'm guessing someone leaves him off)
    Halladay 91%
    E.Martinez 81%
    ----------
    Mussina 72%
    Schilling 59%
    Clemens 59%
    Bonds 58%
    Walker 56%
    McGriff 48%
    Vizquel 46%

    No one else over 25%, although Helton might surprise me there, I guess.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  10. #40
    IIRC Bonds Clemens and Schilling all retired after the 2007 season. That would make 2022 their last year eligible in the normal vote.

    1. Will any of the make it sooner?
    2. Will any of them not make it by then?


    First time eligible in 2022 includes ARod, Papi, Jimmy Rollins, and Mark Teixeira. Talk about having your parade rained on.

    J
    Ad Astra per Aspera

    Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

    GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

    Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

    I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude

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