Lee Smith & Harold Baines Elected to the HOF

[Kevin Seitzer]

spoiler alerts:
the Clemens types tend to fade late.

Yeah, the sabermetric-community-cause inductees tend to need >85% on the public ballot to make >75% from the whole electorate.

You can see, for example, that Bonds and Clemens have only gained two votes each over the same pool of voters from last year. Given that they finished at 56% and 57% last year, that's not going to get them anywhere close to induction.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Edgar Martinez is one who looks like he might make it in his final year. Mussina, despite being at 83% in the public ballot so far, probably comes up just a hair shy of 75% total? That's my guess right now, though it looks like it will be close.

[Kevin Seitzer]

My guess is that the class this year is Rivera, Halladay, and Martinez. Mussina comes up just short. And Clemens, Bonds, and Schilling show some gains but are still well short of election. Larry Walker with big gain in vote share but also still well short. No one else over 50%.

[Judge Jude]

Martinez will definitely get in to make 3.

Mussina will be in the 70s - needs 75 pct. should be very close

[Art Vandelay]

is any site carrying up to date results on public cards?

[Judge Jude]

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...Ceqm-knNxexBw8

that's the tracker - happy New Year!

[dslaw]

Mariano Rivera: named on 100% of ballots

Ballots were due 12/31/18. Do you think making these vote counts public makes it more or less likely that Mo gets 100%? I don't know if there are still the "DiMaggio didn't get 100% so I won't vote for Mo" types of guys still voting. I can see where some voters, in certain years, would fill the ballot without a sure fire electee like Mo knowing he will get 75% anyway but the ballot seems a little sparse to do that this year.

[Judge Jude]

he won't get 100 pct.

[Kevin Seitzer]

My predictions:

Rivera 99.8% (I'm guessing someone leaves him off)
Halladay 91%
E.Martinez 81%
----------
Mussina 72%
Schilling 59%
Clemens 59%
Bonds 58%
Walker 56%
McGriff 48%
Vizquel 46%

No one else over 25%, although Helton might surprise me there, I guess.

[onejayhawk]

IIRC Bonds Clemens and Schilling all retired after the 2007 season. That would make 2022 their last year eligible in the normal vote.

1. Will any of the make it sooner?
2. Will any of them not make it by then?

First time eligible in 2022 includes ARod, Papi, Jimmy Rollins, and Mark Teixeira. Talk about having your parade rained on.

J

[revo]

Mariano elected unanimously. Halladay, Edgar & Mussina also elected.

[Art Vandelay]

IIRC Bonds Clemens and Schilling all retired after the 2007 season. That would make 2022 their last year eligible in the normal vote.

1. Will any of the make it sooner?
2. Will any of them not make it by then?

First time eligible in 2022 includes ARod, Papi, Jimmy Rollins, and Mark Teixeira. Talk about having your parade rained on.

J

The number of years was changed to 10

[dslaw]

Surprised Mariano got 100%. He shouldn't have been the first with 100% but he deserves it.

[revo]

spoiler alerts:
the Clemens types tend to fade late.

Good call:
Schilling - 60.9%
Clemens - 59.5%
Bonds - 59.1%

[onejayhawk]

The number of years was changed to 10

That's worked in. You have to wait five years first.

Surprised Mariano got 100%. He shouldn't have been the first with 100% but he deserves it.

The holdouts on previous players got the wrong sort of notice. I think everyone made sure to stay off that list.

J