Early Look at the 2019 Fantasy Draft

[revo]

A few things are becoming clear: the NFL is completely back to being a RB heavy league, and the top RBs have now all become pass-catching mavens.


#1 Overall
I think Todd Gurley has done sufficiently enough to retain his #1 overall standing, but there's a shakeup among the next tier:


#2-#5
It's hard not to put Saquon Barkley as the #2 overall player after his monstrous rookie year. It would even be hard to fault someone for taking him #1 overall. Alvin Kamara may no longer have UFA Mark Ingram to kick around (although I'm sure someone will sprout up), so he's still an easy top bet. Christian McCaffrey has emerged as an uber-stud and is a Top 4 lock. Melvin Gordon has become a week-in, week-out reliable stud who catches passes and scores TDs.


#6-#10
Ezekiel Elliott keeps chugging along, but his receiving yardage is starting to fall behind the top backs. Kareem Hunt is in a high-powered offense which sometimes leaves him short of work, but he's still a Top 10 back easy. James Conner should have the PIT job all to himself next year and has done Le'Veon Bell-esque things this year. Speaking of Le'Veon Bell, he could end up with the Jets or Bills or similar bad offense which could possibly damage his upside -- and then there's the fact he sat out an entire year. David Johnson is starting to resemble the David Johnson of old under new OC Byron Leftwich, but he could slide further than this spot.


#11-#17
This is where the WRs start to come into play. Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham and Davante Adams all have to be considered here.


#18-#27
The up and coming bellcow RBs like Nick Chubb, Phillip Lindsay, Sony Michel & Joe Mixon, the injury-ravaged Leonard Fournette, elite WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs, and QB extraordinaire Patrick Mahomes should all fall into this tier.


#28-#36
Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks, Kerryon Johnson, AJ Green, Aaron Jones & Marlon Mack should be in this latter part of the third round.


TOP THREE ROUNDS (UPDATED, 3/13)

TIER ONE
1 - Barkley
2 - McCaffrey
3 - Elliott
4 - Kamara

TIER TWO
5 - Bell
6 - Gordon
7 - Conner
8 - Gurley

TIER THREE
9 - J. Jones
10 - M. Thomas
11 - D. Adams
12 - T. Hill
13 - Smith-Schuster
14 - Thielen
15 - A. Brown
16 - Beckham
17 - Hopkins

TIER FOUR
18 - Henry
19 - Cook
20 - Mixon
21 - Lindsay
22 - D. Johnson
23 - Evans
24 - Fournette
25 - Mahomes
26 - Diggs
27 - Michel

TIER SIX
28 - Kelce
29 - Ertz
30 - Allen
31 - Mack
32 - Chubb
33 - A. Jones
34 - Kittle
35 - Woods
36 - Cooper

[chancellor]

Nice!

No real strong disagreements until picks 28-36. Even as a Packer homer, there's no way I take Rodgers that high. Not even close. He has one elite WR to throw to, some good developing talent at WR, but no answer at TE and a terrible OL in front of him. A good draft and a new coach might mitigate some of those issues, but not all.

And Zach Ertz ahead of Travis Kelce? Nah, I can't go there, either.

[Ken]

Ezekiel Elliott keeps chugging along, but his receiving yardage is starting to fall behind the top backs.

Recency trends may change that actually. Since the Cowboys picked up Cooper, their offense looks very different. Elliott has been a monster in both the running and passing games. Over the last 4, on the receiving side he's averaging 5 catches for 47 yards to go along with his 100+ yards rushing.

I suspect he can make his way into the top 5 if that trend continues. (He's actually ahead of McCaffrey in both Standard and PPR this year))

[revo]

Nice!

No real strong disagreements until picks 28-36. Even as a Packer homer, there's no way I take Rodgers that high. Not even close. He has one elite WR to throw to, some good developing talent at WR, but no answer at TE and a terrible OL in front of him. A good draft and a new coach might mitigate some of those issues, but not all.

And Zach Ertz ahead of Travis Kelce? Nah, I can't go there, either.

I was probably making edits while this was posted. I have Kelce & Ertz 1-2 among TEs, and would not be shocked to see Ertz consistently go ahead of him. I did boot out Rodgers from this tier. He's likely in the next tier of QBs, which would include Brees, Cam & Luck. Despite seemingly having an "off" year, Rodgers is still on pace for 4,700 yards passing with 30 TDs.

Recency trends may change that actually. Since the Cowboys picked up Cooper, their offense looks very different. Elliott has been a monster in both the running and passing games. Over the last 4, on the receiving side he's averaging 5 catches for 47 yards to go along with his 100+ yards rushing.

I suspect he can make his way into the top 5 if that trend continues. (He's actually ahead of McCaffrey in both Standard and PPR this year))

I initially had him at 5 ahead of Gordon, but he's no worse than 6. He should go anywhere from 4-6.

[TS Garp]

I can't see taking David Johnson above the top WR's. Leftwich is a big upgrade from McCoy but the Cardinals just don't have anything else on offense to keep defenses honest, so it's going to be tough sledding for him. Kirk looks promising but Fitzgerald will likely be gone next year and who knows what they have in Rosen. I wouldn't invest a first-round pick in Johnson.

[TS Garp]

Also, re: Lindsay, absolutely love watching the guy play. He accelerates so quickly and runs so hard -- hard to believe he wasn't drafted. With that said, the Broncos seem committed to limiting his touches. He's had more than 15 carries in a game only twice, despite averaging almost 6 yards per carry. It's nice to see them use him at the goal line but Joseph is such a stubborn and unimaginative coach - I'm not sure why they don't use him more as a receiver. Unless they start rethinking this, it's tough to see taking him in the first two rounds. Kamara can return elite value on this kind of workload, and Lindsay probably could, too, if he was playing for that team and in that environment, but in a conservative offense with a mediocre qb, I'm skeptical.

Edit to add: I'd also bump Kerryon Johnson up a tier.

[nullnor]

why did i draft Dalvin Cook over Christian McCaffrey this year? oh i know why because the few times i watched Cook last year before he got hurt he looked great catching swing passes. and he was supposed to play on a team with a good defense with a commitment to running the ball. who knew the MIN OL would be gun-shy and the NFL new rules (trying to make every MNF game be over 100 points) would have such an effect on the league. and the Panthers have had questions at RB for the last decade, and Cam Newton always hogs the glory. still, you just knew McCaffrey was going to do this.

[revo]

re: David Johnson -- he could slip, but even in this crappy year for him, he'll still get 1500+ yds from scrimmage.

re: Lindsay -- yes, he looks tremendously explosive, and even if Royce Freeman rebounds into something worthwhile, it could be a Kamara/Ingram type setup.

re: Kerryon Johnson -- guy looks good, but the Lions are a total mess and really, you have to go back 15-18 years to the James Stewart era to find a solid DET RB. I'm not yet taking him over Chubb, Michel, Lindsay or Fournette.

[chancellor]

TS Garp's point about Kerryon is interesting. Fournette is so talented, but is hurt so much. I like how Michel looks, but...he's a Belichick RB, and they simply can't be trusted (unless you're in a PPR league, and then White is money). The challenge of evaluating 15 carries/game for Lindsay versus 20-25 for Kerryon is an interesting one, though revo's comments about how hosed up the Lions are is undeniable.

Question for all: In a PPR league, is McCaffrey the #1 back?

[revo]

Question for all: In a PPR league, is McCaffrey the #1 back?

I couldn't go there yet. Gurley still is a TD-scoring machine, and Saquon is probably the most talented back in the NFL. If you wanted to take him 3rd over Kamara, I wouldn't be opposed.

[revo]

Ok, time to move Kareem Hunt down draft boards......

[chancellor]

And if there was any doubt as to why you never, ever draft Patriots RBs high, I give you week 13.

[Friarfan]

Any rookies we can add in here?

Fucking Hunt! I'm in a league where we keep three players and I'd have Barkley, Hunt and David Johnson as my three keepers heading in to next year. Hunt will be gone at least 6 games at minimum. Wonder if he gets Ray Rice'd out of the league.

[revo]

Any rookies we can add in here?

Fucking Hunt! I'm in a league where we keep three players and I'd have Barkley, Hunt and David Johnson as my three keepers heading in to next year. Hunt will be gone at least 6 games at minimum. Wonder if he gets Ray Rice'd out of the league.

Seems like a weak RB class.


Also, I'm moving McCaffrey past Kamara to #3 -- he's outperformed him in every category; and the #1 spot to a toss-up between Gurley & Barkley.

[chancellor]

Also, I'm moving McCaffrey past Kamara to #3 -- he's outperformed him in every category; and the #1 spot to a toss-up between Gurley & Barkley.

In a non-PPR league, I take Zeke ahead of Kamara, too. Even in PPR leagues, it's getting pretty dicey - Zeke only has a handful fewer catches and about 90 yards less than Kamara to date, and Kamara's PPG dropped a lot once Ingram was back.