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Thread: Election 2020

  1. #7341
    In terms of taking a reputational beating, I don't think any polling group has Cook Political Report's House predictions beat. The why can be debated, but the what is a disaster of "HOLY [email protected]&" proportions. To wit:

    - Cook Political had 36 seats "leaning or likely Democrat". The GOP won seven of those seats.
    - Cook Political had 26 seats "leaning or likely GOP". The GOP won all of those seats.
    - And, in the coup de grace, Cook Political had 27 seats listed as "Toss-up". The GOP won every single one of those seats. Holy SNAFU, Batman.

    My conclusion: Frae, despite the crap I gave him about the Cunningham race, is ten times smarter than the Cook Political Report. I have spoken.
    I'm just here for the baseball.

  2. #7342
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    Quote Originally Posted by chancellor View Post
    In terms of taking a reputational beating, I don't think any polling group has Cook Political Report's House predictions beat. The why can be debated, but the what is a disaster of "HOLY [email protected]&" proportions. To wit:

    - Cook Political had 36 seats "leaning or likely Democrat". The GOP won seven of those seats.
    - Cook Political had 26 seats "leaning or likely GOP". The GOP won all of those seats.
    - And, in the coup de grace, Cook Political had 27 seats listed as "Toss-up". The GOP won every single one of those seats. Holy SNAFU, Batman.

    My conclusion: Frae, despite the crap I gave him about the Cunningham race, is ten times smarter than the Cook Political Report. I have spoken.
    I think their reputation is great. They got 100% on the leaning or likely GOP. 26 for 26!

  3. #7343
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chancellor View Post
    In terms of taking a reputational beating, I don't think any polling group has Cook Political Report's House predictions beat. The why can be debated, but the what is a disaster of "HOLY [email protected]&" proportions. To wit:

    - Cook Political had 36 seats "leaning or likely Democrat". The GOP won seven of those seats.
    - Cook Political had 26 seats "leaning or likely GOP". The GOP won all of those seats.
    - And, in the coup de grace, Cook Political had 27 seats listed as "Toss-up". The GOP won every single one of those seats. Holy SNAFU, Batman.

    My conclusion: Frae, despite the crap I gave him about the Cunningham race, is ten times smarter than the Cook Political Report. I have spoken.
    The polls still cannot seem to get the GOP voter correct. It's crazy. They're all lucky that Biden had as big a lead as he did going into Election Day, because they came close to blowing it again. This time, they blew it big time on the down ballot races as you mentioned. Just terrible.

  4. #7344
    All Star Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Some trivia that I found interesting...

    Biggest state margins for Biden:
    California, +5.1 million votes
    Massachusetts, +1.2 million
    New York, +1.0 million
    Illinois, +1.0 million
    Maryland, +1.0 million
    Washington, +0.8 million
    New Jersey, +0.7 million
    Virginia, +0.5 million

    Biggest state margins for Trump:
    Tennessee, +0.7 million
    Alabama, +0.6 million
    Kentucky, +0.6 million
    Texas, +0.5 million
    Oklahoma, +0.5 million
    Missouri, +0.5 million
    Indiana, +0.5 million
    Ohio, +0.5 million

    Biden's overall lead right now is at 6.0 million votes, and it is likely to grow somewhat as all the votes are counted.
    Last edited by Kevin Seitzer; 11-20-2020 at 12:44 PM.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  5. #7345
    All Star Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Biggest percentage margins for Biden:
    Vermont +35.4%
    Maryland +32.9%
    Massachusetts +32.9%
    California +29.4%
    Hawaii +29.4%
    Rhode Island +20.7%
    Connecticut +20.0%
    Washington +19.4%
    Delaware +19.0%
    Illinois +16.9%
    Oregon +16.2%
    New Jersey +15.7%
    New York +14.7%
    Colorado +13.5%
    New Mexico +10.8%
    Virginia +10.2%
    Maine +10.0%

    Biggest percentage margins for Trump:
    Wyoming +43.3%
    West Virginia +38.9%
    North Dakota +33.3%
    Oklahoma +33.1%
    Idaho +30.7%
    Arkansas +27.6%
    South Dakota +26.2%
    Kentucky +25.9%
    Alabama +25.6%
    Tennessee +23.3%
    Utah +20.5%
    Nebraska +19.1%
    Louisiana +18.6%
    Mississippi +16.5%
    Montana +16.3%
    Indiana +16.1%
    Missouri +15.3%
    Kansas +15.2%
    South Carolina +11.7%
    Alaska +10.1%
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  6. #7346
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    The polls still cannot seem to get the GOP voter correct. It's crazy. They're all lucky that Biden had as big a lead as he did going into Election Day, because they came close to blowing it again. This time, they blew it big time on the down ballot races as you mentioned. Just terrible.
    Any chance that the polls didn't blow it but Biden did?

    You think messaging that Trump was a unique threat to democracy and that Biden was willing to platform Republicans, put them in his cabinet, and work with Republicans to end the era of obstructionism that was obviously ever present before Trump? Think that affected the down ballot races? I was saying polls were off all along.

  7. #7347
    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    Any chance that the polls didn't blow it but Biden did?

    You think messaging that Trump was a unique threat to democracy and that Biden was willing to platform Republicans, put them in his cabinet, and work with Republicans to end the era of obstructionism that was obviously ever present before Trump? Think that affected the down ballot races? I was saying polls were off all along.
    You also said Biden was going to get blown out.
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  8. #7348
    All Star Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMT View Post
    You also said Biden was going to get blown out.
    And that he was deteriorating physically to the point that he wouldn't make it through a tough campaign and was on the verge of full-on dementia.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  9. #7349
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    Any chance that the polls didn't blow it but Biden did?

    You think messaging that Trump was a unique threat to democracy and that Biden was willing to platform Republicans, put them in his cabinet, and work with Republicans to end the era of obstructionism that was obviously ever present before Trump? Think that affected the down ballot races? I was saying polls were off all along.
    Not at all. The various battleground state polls all had Biden in the lead until the final day. Then a few Florida polls showed Trump with the lead. How could Biden have blown it that late, when there was nothing that came out?

    The national presidential polls were accurate. The presidential battleground states were for the most part accurate, but a lot closer than expected. The Senate polls were inaccurate. The House polls were inaccurate. How would Biden have affected them, but not his own?

    How could they have shown Collins losing in every single poll throughout the cycle, but then she wins by 8%? What did Biden have to do with that?

    The Iowa, NC and even the Montana race were horribly off, but Arizona wasn't. Neither was Colorado.

    This was most certainly a polling issue, not a Biden issue.

  10. #7350
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMT View Post
    You also said Biden was going to get blown out.
    You lie. Show me where I said Biden would lose badly, or that he would lose at all! I said he was running a shitty campaign with flawed strategy, and I was right. His down ballot losses are entirely his fault, messaging that Republicans are good people and that Trump is uniquely bad. That was a shit message.

    You said Biden was going to steamroll Trump worse than the polls showed. You were way off.

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