Election 2020

[frae]

A few days of good polls for Biden and for Warren I would say.

Moves the RCP avg to...

Biden 31
Sanders 15.8
Warren 15.5
Harris 8.3
Pete 5.5

The Quinnipac poll has it

Biden 32
Warren 21
Sanders 14
Harris 7
Pete 5

Survey USA poll put Biden at 36, Sanders 15 Warren 13, Harris 8, Pete 5.

Survey USA also did a NC poll that had Biden up 8 on Trump, Sanders up 4, and Warren up 1.

Again Biden isn't my first choice on policy, but the polls of him doing well in states like TX, NC, and the midwest can't just be ignored if our goal as a party is to win. He also made a pretty good speech in Iowa yesterday. I know he is far from a perfect candidate but this was a good speech and he delivered it well.

RCP avg link...https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tion-6730.html

538's latest polls that include those survey usa polls...https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[GwynnInTheHall]

Here's why I don't put too much stock in these polls..........It's going to come down to one thing--who can crush trump in the head to head presidential debates.

I just don't see that Biden can do that, regardless of his numbers, He's weak on stage. I know that shouldn't matter, but Trump, if anything, is great at playing the crowd, whomever is pon that stage with him needs to be able to punch and counter punch without making mistakes or flubbing it up.

Biden hasn't shown he can do either.

[revo]

Honestly, how can you ask for anything more after these last 2 1/2 years??

[Sour Masher]

I haven't gotten a chance to listen to this yet, but plan on it.

[Fresno Bob]

I'd like for my next president to be someone that can hire actual professionals for important federal positions instead of toadies and cronies

[Teenwolf]

Here's why I don't put too much stock in these polls..........It's going to come down to one thing--who can crush trump in the head to head presidential debates.

I just don't see that Biden can do that, regardless of his numbers, He's weak on stage. I know that shouldn't matter, but Trump, if anything, is great at playing the crowd, whomever is pon that stage with him needs to be able to punch and counter punch without making mistakes or flubbing it up.

Biden hasn't shown he can do either.

I agree with this, but would put it much more vociferously.

I keep posting about the daily idiocy of Biden, and y'all keep posting polls without factoring in reality. Trump is right, Biden has "lost his fastball". The best he can deliver is a C+, but he brings nothing to the table! His only 2 messages are "Obama" + "Trump is bad", and that strategy is going to fucking lose! Be fucking real!

Polls got everything wrong in 2016. Primary polling often underestimated Sanders' support by 10-20% in multiple states. Clinton was seen as a lock to win by nearly every poll or analyst, right up to election night 2016. You want to follow polls right off a cliff, again?

[DMT]

I agree with this, but would put it much more vociferously.

I keep posting about the daily idiocy of Biden, and y'all keep posting polls without factoring in reality. Trump is right, Biden has "lost his fastball". The best he can deliver is a C+, but he brings nothing to the table! His only 2 messages are "Obama" + "Trump is bad", and that strategy is going to fucking lose! Be fucking real!

Polls got everything wrong in 2016. Primary polling often underestimated Sanders' support by 10-20% in multiple states. Clinton was seen as a lock to win by nearly every poll or analyst, right up to election night 2016. You want to follow polls right off a cliff, again?

She was not seen as a lock, demonstrably false.

You seem to confuse your own perspective with that of an entire nation that you live next to. There are a lot of Americans that genuinely like Biden and still many more who would gladly take the chance on him if he is believed to have a better chance to beat Trump. He's not my preferred candidate (as I've stated repeatedly), but your continuing insistence that no one likes Biden and that he's a monster who has no chance of beating Trump is completely self-reflective.

[frae]

One more poll from today in Iowa, Monmouth poll has it...

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ia_080819/

Biden 28
Warren 18
Harris 14
Sanders 9
Pete 8

The favorable/unfavorables were interesting.

Biden 73/19
Sanders 58/33
Warren 76/14
Harris 68/19
Pete 68/11

Pete and Warren have the lowest unfavorable numbers and Warren is way ahead on net favorable.

[frae]

I agree with this, but would put it much more vociferously.

I keep posting about the daily idiocy of Biden, and y'all keep posting polls without factoring in reality. Trump is right, Biden has "lost his fastball". The best he can deliver is a C+, but he brings nothing to the table! His only 2 messages are "Obama" + "Trump is bad", and that strategy is going to fucking lose! Be fucking real!

Polls got everything wrong in 2016. Primary polling often underestimated Sanders' support by 10-20% in multiple states. Clinton was seen as a lock to win by nearly every poll or analyst, right up to election night 2016. You want to follow polls right off a cliff, again?

Polls and financial reports are really the only hard fact data points we have. You like to use the financial argument for Sanders and I will say his large amount of small donors is a good data point for him, but not being ahead in any state right now in a poll or leading any national poll with almost 100% name recognition is a bad data point for him. I am not saying the data definitely says one thing or the other yet, but they are worth looking at.

Also, polls didn't get everything wrong in 2016 the polls were right on the national net score as it was off by about 1 point or so, 48.2 - 46.1 was the result and 538 put the aggregate at 48.5 - 44.9 in their last forecast for 2016.

2016 primary poll averages in varying states...

NH...https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-3351.html Proj 54.5 - 41.2 for Sanders - Bernie won 60.1 - 37.7

IA...https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ucus-3195.html Proj Clinton 47.8 - Sanders 44 Clinton won 49.9 -49.6

NV... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ucus-5337.html Proj Clinton 48.7 - 46.3 Clinton won 52.6 - 47.3

SC... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-4167.html Proj Clinton 58.2 - 37 Clinton won 73.5 -26

So I don't really see the polls underestimating Bernie that much, he was within the margin of error in IA, he was underestimated some in NH. I am too lazy to do all the Super Tuesday states.

[Hornsby]

Here's why I don't put too much stock in these polls..........It's going to come down to one thing--who can crush trump in the head to head presidential debates.

I just don't see that Biden can do that, regardless of his numbers, He's weak on stage. I know that shouldn't matter, but Trump, if anything, is great at playing the crowd, whomever is pon that stage with him needs to be able to punch and counter punch without making mistakes or flubbing it up.

Biden hasn't shown he can do either.

I will respectfully disagree...I've seen Obama, Clinton, and just about every other politician over the past 35 years, and Joe Biden is just about the best speaker I've ever witnessed. He connects to the crowd in a very personal way, he sometimes goes off script, which can get him in trouble, but it's almost always because it's something that he feels passionately about.

He's been doing this forever...Trump has not. Trumps opponents were totally unprepared for his "style" during the 2016 primaries, so he won the nomination. HRC basically mopped the stage with him during their debates...he's simply not very good at it. I'll take Biden and his stage presence vs Trump all day long.

[Teenwolf]

She was not seen as a lock, demonstrably false.

You seem to confuse your own perspective with that of an entire nation that you live next to. There are a lot of Americans that genuinely like Biden and still many more who would gladly take the chance on him if he is believed to have a better chance to beat Trump. He's not my preferred candidate (as I've stated repeatedly), but your continuing insistence that no one likes Biden and that he's a monster who has no chance of beating Trump is completely self-reflective.

I'm not saying that there isn't current support for Biden. I'm saying that it's completely unsustainable because he's an even more horribly and critically flawed candidate than Clinton was. He would point to Biden's physical deterioration, and he'd win points based on it. He'd point to Biden's record, and crush him.

In the last debate, Biden said he would renegotiate the fucking TPP... He constructed NAFTA, and Trump would hammer him with it endlessly... He would get swept through the midwest just like Hillary did. I'm just as scared of a 2nd Trump term as all of you are, but knowing that you need millenials to turn out, Biden is a fucking loser. Get it through your heads, he told the biggest voting base "I have no sympathy for you, gimme a break!" The ones carrying the bulk of $1.6 Tn student loan debt. Running Biden is suicidal.

[Teenwolf]

I will respectfully disagree...I've seen Obama, Clinton, and just about every other politician over the past 35 years, and Joe Biden is just about the best speaker I've ever witnessed. He connects to the crowd in a very personal way, he sometimes goes off script, which can get him in trouble, but it's almost always because it's something that he feels passionately about.

He's been doing this forever...Trump has not. Trumps opponents were totally unprepared for his "style" during the 2016 primaries, so he won the nomination. HRC basically mopped the stage with him during their debates...he's simply not very good at it. I'll take Biden and his stage presence vs Trump all day long.

You honestly don't think Biden 30330 has lost a step?

I'm not denying Biden of 2008 could beat Trump, but I think it's becoming clear he's not the same speaker. He mumbles and stammers a lot, and confuses people and places... he stops in the middle of sentences and waves his hands... he looks old. Am I seeing things?

[Sour Masher]

Man, it is a great time for politicians being able to get beyond the big donors dictating who gets time to get their message out. In two days, we have over 5.5 million views for Bernie's interview with Rogan. They got to hear him on a variety of issues without commercial interruption. I think he did a great job of presenting all of his plans in a way that seems totally reasonable and not radical at all. It is all in line with what most developed countries do and what most Americans say they want.

eTA: The one thing I don't think he honestly or fully addressed is his plan for making college free and wiping out student loans. He put it forth entirely as a tax on "wall street speculators" and doesn't mention its potential negative impact on retirement plans. I wish Rogan would have asked him about that, but Rogan isn't known for doing research or asking such questions.

[DMT]

Man, it is a great time for politicians being able to get beyond the big donors dictating who gets time to get their message out. In two days, we have over 5.5 million views for Bernie's interview with Rogan. They got to hear him on a variety of issues without commercial interruption. I think he did a great job of presenting all of his plans in a way that seems totally reasonable and not radical at all. It is all in line with what most developed countries do and what most Americans say they want.

The one thing I don't think he honestly or fully addressed his plan for making college free and wiping out student loans. He put it forth entirely as a tax on "wall street speculators" and doesn't mention its potential negative impact on retirement plans.

Yep, I thought he did a great job as well. Too often he is portrayed as a caricature and he acknowledged how the debates are mostly pointless.

[Teenwolf]

Man, it is a great time for politicians being able to get beyond the big donors dictating who gets time to get their message out. In two days, we have over 5.5 million views for Bernie's interview with Rogan. They got to hear him on a variety of issues without commercial interruption. I think he did a great job of presenting all of his plans in a way that seems totally reasonable and not radical at all. It is all in line with what most developed countries do and what most Americans say they want.

Its interesting because Rogan has a history of elevating some awful voices from the right. However, last week he had Cornel West on for 2 hours, and it was a great interview that seemed to really change Rogan's perspectives on a lot of issues. It helps that Cornel West compared Rogan to Richard Pryor to butter him up. I highly recommend the West interview if you missed that one.