Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

This article says Warren sticking with Med4All amid waning support for it among dems may be her downfall. Thoughts? https://www.politico.com/amp/news/20...for-all-063701

[B-Fly]

My MIL went to high school with Mitch McConnell.

My father (and Revo's father) went to high school with Bernie Sanders.

[Gregg]

My father (and Revo's father) went to high school with Bernie Sanders.

You and revo are brothers!?

[Gregg]

The result of a tight race, where nobody accumulates more than 30% of the vote total, would be bad for unifying the Democratic party. Right now, there's a battle within the party between neoliberal corporatist types like Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, and Kamala Harris, and more "fundamental change" candidates like Warren, Sanders, Yang, and Gabbard. If nobody accumulates 50% of the vote on the first ballot at the convention, they attempt to find a unity ticket, that is 2 primary candidates forming a POTUS/VP ticket if those 2 hold more than 50% of the vote (or 50% of the awarded delegates, not sure, probably delegates). It's possible that we could see the 2 "progressives" unite on the first ballot if Sanders and Warren get over 50%. It's looking quite unlikely that 2 of the centrists could get 50% at this point, unless Biden does much better than his current trajectory, and Mayor Pete takes his small run from 5-7% and runs it up to 20%, but that's highly unlikely, in my mind, given his complete inability to appeal to black voters rendering him non-viable (though they could try to stick him with Biden and say that Biden absolves Buttigieg's weakness there).

However, if the Democrats cannot find a viable unity ticket, then voting would go to a 2nd round, wherein the dreaded superdelegates reappear to swing the primary to their choice. If the DNC uses the superdelegates to take the leadership from the leading vote-getter, that would be very bad for party unity. But that's just one narrow outcome of many. I believe Warren and Sanders would unite if they're able to, as it would avoid the appearance of rigging.

Thank you.

Could you expand on that last sentence "avoid the appearance of rigging." Not exactly sure what that means and why it should matter.

[B-Fly]

You and revo are brothers!?

LOL, no. Both of our fathers went to Madison High School in Brooklyn and overlapped with Bernie Sanders. It was a huge school, though. None of them really seem to have known each other.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/politics/james-madison-high-school-home-bernie-sanders-judge-judy-chuck-schumer-ruth-bader-ginsburg/index.html

[Judge Jude]

LOL, no. Both of our fathers went to Madison High School in Brooklyn

my father did as well, no kidding

[Ken]

my father did as well, no kidding

Are you revo and B-Fly's brother?

[revo]

Beto O'Rourke, once the high-flying wunderkind for the Dems, is dropping out of the race.

And Kamala Harris's campaign is hemorrhaging cash and has shuttered their NH office, so it's probably not too much longer before she disappears.

And I am neither JJ's nor B-Fly's brother. But maybe brother from another mother.

[Judge Jude]

Beto O'Rourke, once the high-flying wunderkind for the Dems, is dropping out of the race.

And Kamala Harris's campaign is hemorrhaging cash and has shuttered their NH office, so it's probably not too much longer before she disappears.

And I am neither JJ's nor B-Fly's brother. But maybe brother from another mother.

my father had finished HS for several years and joined the Army a few months after Bernie Sanders was BORN. not that my Dad was old when I was born or anything.

and my mother's father was born in 1870. not quite a "John Tyler's grandsons" saga, but still.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Are you revo and B-Fly's brother?

The jury's still out on that.

[Teenwolf]

Thank you.

Could you expand on that last sentence "avoid the appearance of rigging." Not exactly sure what that means and why it should matter.

No problem. The scenario I speak of is basically the "screw Bernie" option. Wherein if Bernie Sanders wins the most votes or the most pledged delegates, the DNC would use their levers of power (the superdelegates) to swing the election away from him.

Hypothetically, let's say the top 2 finishers are Sanders and Warren, 3rd Buttigieg, 4th Biden. If Sanders and Warren finish with 30% of the vote, and 25% respectively, who's to say that the DNC wouldn't refuse to nominate Sanders, instead allowing the superdelegates to select Warren in the 2nd round of voting? Warren has been privately meeting with superdelegates, and she's committed to a large DNC fundraiser. She's their choice between the two.

I'm essentially saying that if the leading vote getter is not nominated, especially if that person is Sanders, it would lead to a massive fracture within the Democratic party. Despite the false narrative about Sanders supporters abandoning HRC in '16, it might happen with more frequency if they screw Bernie again.

[Teenwolf]

Joe Biden has fallen among 2nd choice voting, down to 4th among 2nd choice for all non-Biden voters. That's staggering to me, as he has literally nowhere to go but down. Biden's supporters are the least informed of the race, and once they figure it out, they're gone for good. In that recent NH or Iowa poll, I forget which, Biden had 2% of the vote under 50. He's done. He can't finish 3rd or 4th in the first 3 states and expect a South Carolina win to upend the electability narrative... that's his actual play right now. Electability will be dead by SC. Biden has less money on hand than Kamala Harris, and she's close to dropping out. All of these things bring me joy.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I don't think The DNC is stupid enough to sway the nomination again.

However, when CNN runs a segment featuring a poll showing warren 22, sanders 19, Buttigieg 18 and Biden 17 and runs a bottom tracing headline that says Buttigieg and Biden within striking distance of Warren--Leaving our Sanders-- you can see the subliminal bias some MSM has against Bernie.

It's subtle--but it exists.

[onejayhawk]

I don't think The DNC is stupid enough to sway the nomination again.

However, when CNN runs a segment featuring a poll showing warren 22, sanders 19, Buttigieg 18 and Biden 17 and runs a bottom tracing headline that says Buttigieg and Biden within striking distance of Warren--Leaving our Sanders-- you can see the subliminal bias some MSM has against Bernie.

It's subtle--but it exists.

They didn't in 2016. Bill Clinton did it at the 2012 Convention. That's when the rules for the next election cycle are passed. In 2016, there was not thought to be a reason to stack any decks, because Hillary had an easy win.

J

[GwynnInTheHall]

They didn't in 2016. Bill Clinton did it at the 2012 Convention. That's when the rules for the next election cycle are passed. In 2016, there was not thought to be a reason to stack any decks, because Hillary had an easy win.

J

Wut???