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Thread: Election 2020

  1. #4141
    Hall of Famer B-Fly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    I'm trying to think what would bring Biden, Bloomberg, Klobuchar or Buttigieg to drop out before super Tuesday. Klobuchar I can see if she gets blanked in SC and Nevada. The others I'd be surprised if they dropped out in the next 3 weeks.
    Biden doesn't need Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar to leave the race before Super Tuesday to turn this into a veritable two-person contest with Sanders. He just needs them to finish below 15% almost everywhere, and particularly in the states that award lots of delegates, so they're not picking up more than a negligible number of delegates that could otherwise have been Biden's. That's why Bloomberg at 27% to Biden's 26% in Florida in today's new poll has to be scary as hell for Biden considering he had 42% and a 26 point lead over his closest competitor when Florida was polled a month ago.

  2. #4142
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by B-Fly View Post
    What poll is that? I think that may just be a polling average (of one new poll out today and one from back in early January). The one that came out today has Bloomberg inching ahead of Biden, whereas Biden had a huge 26 point lead when Florida was last polled back in early January.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-6847.html

    So I read today's polling from Florida as awful for Biden considering where he was a little over a month ago.
    Hmmm...it does appear Bloomberg is ahead, a link I read reported the numbers wrong apparently. Or maybe it was an average mislabeled. And it does appear Biden is dropping in FL and Bloomberg's money is making a difference for now. Shocking !

  3. #4143
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by B-Fly View Post
    Biden doesn't need Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar to leave the race before Super Tuesday to turn this into a veritable two-person contest with Sanders. He just needs them to finish below 15% almost everywhere, and particularly in the states that award lots of delegates, so they're not picking up more than a negligible number of delegates that could otherwise have been Biden's. That's why Bloomberg at 27% to Biden's 26% in Florida in today's new poll has to be scary as hell for Biden considering he had 42% and a 26 point lead over his closest competitor when Florida was polled a month ago.
    True, but if they are all still in the race on Super Tuesday that should give Sanders a huge boost because they are dividing the centrist vote moreso than stealing Sanders votes in my opinion. If they dropout earlier a centrist could have a leg up on Bernie. In any event things will be much clearer in 3 weeks.

  4. #4144
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by B-Fly View Post
    Biden doesn't need Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar to leave the race before Super Tuesday to turn this into a veritable two-person contest with Sanders. He just needs them to finish below 15% almost everywhere, and particularly in the states that award lots of delegates, so they're not picking up more than a negligible number of delegates that could otherwise have been Biden's. That's why Bloomberg at 27% to Biden's 26% in Florida in today's new poll has to be scary as hell for Biden considering he had 42% and a 26 point lead over his closest competitor when Florida was polled a month ago.
    And your scenario could play out, which would be a good thing in my opinion. It would be very clarifying

  5. #4145
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    This article addresses why Sanders' Med4All plan doesn't hurt him with voters, but does for everyone else. TW and other believers in strong, widespread support for Med4All, what is your take on the data of recent candidates that suggest those that support Bernie's plan did much worse than those who did not? In fact, 72% that did not won their elections while only 45% of those who did won. It also shows really low support depending on how you phrase things. If you highlight loss of choice or higher taxes, it is a real loser, with support falling from 56% to 37%. IDK, in addition to consistency and authenticity, I guess Bernie talks about it better than anyone else, and is better and combating those two issues? Whatever, the case, he needs to hold seminars on branding it or it will never pass. It seems politically, a loser for anyone not named Bernie Sanders. This is why I don't think the blue dogs will support it even if Sanders is POTUS.

    I've posted data like this before, but I guess we have different sources, cuz some of you keep saying Med4All has massive support, like 70%. Everything I have seen contradicts that and is consistent with this data--most people don't support it, especially if they when anyone points out loss of choice or higher taxes.

    Democratic candidates who endorsed Medicare for All did significantly worse than those who did not. The estimated coefficient of -4.6 indicates that support for Medicare for All cost Democratic candidates in these competitive districts almost five points of vote margin — a substantial effect in a close election.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/heal...81j?li=BBnbfcN
    Last edited by Sour Masher; 02-14-2020 at 05:53 PM.

  6. #4146
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    This isn't a great analogy, but data like what I just posted makes me think of my baseball league's current vote to add a prize for the consolation bracket. It was my idea, because as a 14 team league, only 6 teams have a shot at the money and I thought having a small prize to play for in our h2h league would keep things fun for the other 8 teams during our playoffs. So far, the vote is against doing it, with the most vocal against it two perennial non-playoff owners. I always do really well, so the idea wasn't to help me, but I am the one proposing and voting for it, and teams that I was trying to help are saying they are against rewarding non-playoff teams. Not the same thing, but a kind of interesting parallel to me at the moment.

  7. #4147
    So what are the chances of Bloomberg being your nominee? I'm cautiously optimistic.

  8. #4148
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cardboardbox View Post
    So what are the chances of Bloomberg being your nominee? I'm cautiously optimistic.
    there is zero chance he is "my nominee". I don't think it is likely he will be the Dem nominee either. I think we are approaching peak Bloomberg and the reality of what he is will bring him back to earth.

  9. #4149
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    This article addresses why Sanders' Med4All plan doesn't hurt him with voters, but does for everyone else. TW and other believers in strong, widespread support for Med4All, what is your take on the data of recent candidates that suggest those that support Bernie's plan did much worse than those who did not? In fact, 72% that did not won their elections while only 45% of those who did won. It also shows really low support depending on how you phrase things. If you highlight loss of choice or higher taxes, it is a real loser, with support falling from 56% to 37%. IDK, in addition to consistency and authenticity, I guess Bernie talks about it better than anyone else, and is better and combating those two issues? Whatever, the case, he needs to hold seminars on branding it or it will never pass. It seems politically, a loser for anyone not named Bernie Sanders. This is why I don't think the blue dogs will support it even if Sanders is POTUS.

    I've posted data like this before, but I guess we have different sources, cuz some of you keep saying Med4All has massive support, like 70%. Everything I have seen contradicts that and is consistent with this data--most people don't support it, especially if they when anyone points out loss of choice or higher taxes.

    Democratic candidates who endorsed Medicare for All did significantly worse than those who did not. The estimated coefficient of -4.6 indicates that support for Medicare for All cost Democratic candidates in these competitive districts almost five points of vote margin — a substantial effect in a close election.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/heal...81j?li=BBnbfcN
    what percent of voters do you think actually have any real understanding of how medicare for all would compare to our current system ?

  10. #4150
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    what percent of voters do you think actually have any real understanding of how medicare for all would compare to our current system ?
    Few. So, how does that get fixed?

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