Page 410 of 627 FirstFirst ... 310360400408409410411412420460510 ... LastLast
Results 4,091 to 4,100 of 6261

Thread: Election 2020

  1. #4091
    Journeyman swampdragon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    northern new jersey
    Posts
    3,413
    What if a current top 6 candidate would drop out and actively campaign for another candidate early on - how much of an impact could that make?
    or a candidate picking a vice president during the race?

  2. #4092
    Administrator revo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    fuggedabboutit
    Posts
    21,361
    Quote Originally Posted by B-Fly View Post
    Here's my take. Unlike many others here, I still feel positively about almost every one of the candidates still in this race. Every one of them has strong positives and a strategy to attract the voters they'll need to defeat Trump. That said, we leave New Hampshire with too many candidates still in the race and still, at least as of today, planning to stay in through Super Tuesday. If the Super Tuesday delegates are distributed among four, five or even six contenders (e.g., Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Warren), then the chances of a contested convention become really high. And if there's a contested convention it will deny the Democrats the chance they need to coalesce around the candidate and the message they will need to maximize their chances of defeating Trump on Election Day.

    I hope that somehow we can get ourselves down to two or at most three viable candidates on Super Tuesday, but the chance of a contested convention is in part what is likely to keep several candidates with no realistic chance at winning the nomination outright from dropping out. Because several of them think they could make a strong case for themselves at a contested convention.

    Despite that Elizabeth Warren is the candidate I would probably appoint if I were somehow charged with appointing the President, I think she should drop out for the sake of the party and defeating Trump. I think Biden should drop out unless he can win big in South Carolina. I think it's tougher to say that Buttigieg or Klobuchar should drop out given their respective performances in New Hampshire, but I think that each of them should set a target of finishing first or second in either Nevada or South Carolina, and if they can't pull off a first or second place finish in either state, they should bow out before Super Tuesday. If either of them can pull off a top two finish in both states, I think perhaps Bloomberg should consider bowing out.

    Ultimately, I'd like to see this primary contest be a fair and clear debate between Sanders's progressive populism and a more moderate Democratic, consensus-building, incremental approach. Whether the latter approach is represented by Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg or Biden is less important to me than that we allow the primary voters to make that choice and that everyone embrace that intra-party debate in a positive way with a clear commitment to coalesce against Trump once it's decided. And I want to see either Sanders or the last non-Sanders standing win the nomination outright before the convention.
    I agree, but the problem is you have two billionaires who are largely self-funding their campaigns, so they don't need to bother.

    The rise of Klobuchar really complicates things. Was it real, or just a one-hit wonder? Same with Mayor Pete, who has seen ebbs and flows, and is now back in the driver's seat.

    I'll just say that Super Tuesday should be the decider, as there are many primaries afterward. If you can't compete then, it's over and move along.

  3. #4093
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Thunder Bay, ON, CAN
    Posts
    2,950
    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    Klobuchar is clearly the Kasich here, the least offensive candidate, most genuinely uninspiring, eat yer broccoli type. If she jumps up to 3rd in NH, she could coalesce the moderates more than Biden. Going forward, she is toast of she doesnt see this late surge i envision in NH materialize. But Klobuchar has the wind in her sails, even if she's ultimately hopeless. But yeah, she likely finishes 3rd today and drops out before SC to make way for the Biden firewall.

    Have you looked at the National polls lately? Bernie is up 4 pts on average, and has way more momentum, way more money, and now slightly ahead in minority support. You really think he rides these early shit kickings to 1st in SC?
    Nailed it.

    Since I nailed it, allow me to continue.

    Buttigieg has 4% of the black vote, Klobuchar has 0%. Neither of them are viable going forward. Actually, both Pete and Klobuchar had focused a ton of campaign spending on Iowa & NH, with little organization beyond those 2 states, so that also helps Sanders' chances.

    Biden's demise has been awesome to witness. I nailed this one too. Warren and Biden's bases will both go largely to Bernie (Warren moreso than Biden, but voters aren't so ideological, making a Biden->Sanders transition less unlikely than it seems). So I think those factors, plus the 2-3% boost from Yang's dropout, give Sanders the best shot at collecting voters once we see more dropouts.

  4. #4094
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Thunder Bay, ON, CAN
    Posts
    2,950
    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    I agree, but the problem is you have two billionaires who are largely self-funding their campaigns, so they don't need to bother.

    The rise of Klobuchar really complicates things. Was it real, or just a one-hit wonder? Same with Mayor Pete, who has seen ebbs and flows, and is now back in the driver's seat.

    I'll just say that Super Tuesday should be the decider, as there are many primaries afterward. If you can't compete then, it's over and move along.
    I'm with B-Fly, anybody who has zero shot at the nomination who stays on through super Tuesday is hurting the Democratic party chances to unite behind one candidate, increasing the odds of a contested convention.

    A contested convention would be a disaster for Democrats, especially if superdelegates nominate someone other than the vote and delegate leader. Must be avoided at all costs if you truly prioritize removing Trump.

  5. #4095
    Administrator revo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    fuggedabboutit
    Posts
    21,361
    It should also be noted that turnout was up almost 18% over the 2016 NH Primary, showing that Dems realize the importance of showing up at the polls and ousting Trump.

  6. #4096
    Hall of Famer B-Fly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Montclair, NJ
    Posts
    47,853
    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    Buttigieg has 4% of the black vote, Klobuchar has 0%. Neither of them are viable going forward.
    Unless their performances across IA and NH, combined with Biden's terrible showing, somehow convince Black voters who find Sanders unpalatable to hop to either Buttigieg or Klobuchar instead of Biden. That's why I think they stay in at least through South Carolina to see if they can get some kind of bounce/traction with Black voters, particularly the older and more traditional Black voters who have been leaning Biden over Sanders per the polling to date.

  7. #4097
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Thunder Bay, ON, CAN
    Posts
    2,950
    Quote Originally Posted by B-Fly View Post
    Unless their performances across IA and NH, combined with Biden's terrible showing, somehow convince Black voters who find Sanders unpalatable to hop to either Buttigieg or Klobuchar instead of Biden. That's why I think they stay in at least through South Carolina to see if they can get some kind of bounce/traction with Black voters, particularly the older and more traditional Black voters who have been leaning Biden over Sanders per the polling to date.
    I dont begrudge any of the current candidates staying through SC, as they all have a puncher's chance to overperform, and the delegate math implications are minor.

    But if they stay in through super Tuesday, that's way too many delegates to be distributed through too many candidates, and would drastically increase the chances of a brokered convention, especially with Bloomberg's entry.

  8. #4098
    Hall of Famer B-Fly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Montclair, NJ
    Posts
    47,853
    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    I dont begrudge any of the current candidates staying through SC, as they all have a puncher's chance to overperform, and the delegate math implications are minor.

    But if they stay in through super Tuesday, that's way too many delegates to be distributed through too many candidates, and would drastically increase the chances of a brokered convention, especially with Bloomberg's entry.
    Agreed. I think we're largely on the same page at this point. The candidates should place the country and the party over their own ambition/self-interest and should drop out before Super Tuesday if their only reasonable chance at the nomination would be via a brokered/contested convention.

  9. #4099
    All Star Stephen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Currently DFW
    Posts
    6,132
    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    I'm with B-Fly, anybody who has zero shot at the nomination who stays on through super Tuesday is hurting the Democratic party chances to unite behind one candidate, increasing the odds of a contested convention.

    A contested convention would be a disaster for Democrats, especially if superdelegates nominate someone other than the vote and delegate leader. Must be avoided at all costs if you truly prioritize removing Trump.
    I agree with all of this. We definitely need to rally behind a candidate/nominee leading into the convention - whomever it is.

  10. #4100
    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    It should also be noted that turnout was up almost 18% over the 2016 NH Primary, showing that Dems realize the importance of showing up at the polls and ousting Trump.
    Trump though was encouraging "Independents" to vote though so the body might be partially from that.

    Overall, I agree with what's been said, I'm hoping Warren gets out soon and throws her support immediately to Sanders.
    If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
    - Terence McKenna

    Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

    How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •