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Thread: Election 2020

  1. #4051
    Journeyman
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    Quote Originally Posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
    FWIW, $350 is 1/100th of your annual salary, not 1/10. #NOTmathnerd

    $350 a MONTH comes out to $4200 a year and is actually More than a 1/10 of my annual salary, thanks for the Help.
    Yeah, I figured that’s what you were trying to convey after I reread it. Still wasn’t accurate, but I got what you were trying to get to. #stillamathnerd
    Last edited by nots; 02-11-2020 at 09:34 AM.

  2. #4052
    Hall of Famer B-Fly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    Fears of moderates voting Trump over Sanders are overblown. Look at these hardcore centrists in this article all saying they will absolutely vote for Sanders. Who is this mythical centrist so turned off by Sanders as to vote Trump? I'm skeptical.

    I find it hilarious that centrists spent years saying "whoever the nominee is, Sanders supporters need to get behind them"... now that the shoe is on the other foot, they wont make the same commitment.

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-trump-nominee
    I agree. Moderate Democrats are very likely to support Sanders in the general election. I know my parents will, even though Sanders is probably their last choice among the field of legitimate contenders because they view him as too extreme. Neoconservatives who voted for Clinton over Trump (such as my father-in-law and uncle-in-law and one of my law school friends) may vote for Trump over Sanders (or vote 3rd party, or stay home). But I don't know how material that group is. The types of independents or moderate Republicans who vote for Democrats like Klobuchar or Bullock or Manchin are another group that could potentially be available to Klobuchar or Bloomberg or Buttigieg but not Sanders or Warren. But again, I don't know how material that group is. Or what the trade off is against the material number of folks in swing states who would come out for Sanders but wouldn't come out for a "corporatist" Democrat, either staying home or voting Green. As I've said many times, each candidate in this race has a potential path to victory, but which voters they can turn out or poach differs from one candidate to the next.

    While I'm not a centrist, I certainly did think that "whoever the nominee is, Sanders supporters need to get behind them", but I absolutely feel the exact same way about the need for everybody to get behind Sanders if he's the Democratic nominee.

  3. #4053
    All Star Stephen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by B-Fly View Post
    While I'm not a centrist, I certainly did think that "whoever the nominee is, Sanders supporters need to get behind them", but I absolutely feel the exact same way about the need for everybody to get behind Sanders if he's the Democratic nominee.
    This is my big concern summed up nicely.

    Of the remaining Democrats in the field I'll rally behind any of them (with varying degrees of enthusiasm) because they are all clearly better options than continuing with Trump.

    I believe that for the most part a majority of supporters of all of the candidates other than Sanders will support the Democratic nominee no matter who it is.

    Recent history has shown that hasn't been the case for as many of Bernie's supporters and I've seen very little to give me much confidence that it will be different now.
    Last edited by Stephen; 02-11-2020 at 10:45 AM.

  4. #4054
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    I think presenting it as a binary choice is a mistake.

    Some groups of moderates, who may vote in droves for a moderate Democrat if given the option, may choose not to vote at all when presented with Sanders vs Trump as the only options.

  5. #4055
    Hall of Famer B-Fly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    I think presenting it as a binary choice is a mistake.

    Some groups of moderates, who may vote in droves for a moderate Democrat if given the option, may choose not to vote at all when presented with Sanders vs Trump as the only options.
    In my opinion, because it's essentially a binary result (the chances of anyone other than Trump or the Democratic nominee winning the election are essentially nil), I think it *should* be a binary choice, even for those who are not particularly happy with either choice.

  6. #4056
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
    This is my big concern summed up nicely.

    Of the remaining Democrats in the field I'll rally behind any of them (with varying degrees of enthusiasm) because they are all clearly better options than continuing with Trump.

    I believe that for the most part a majority of supporters of all of the candidates other than Sanders will support the Democratic nominee no matter who it is.

    Recent history has shown that hasn't been the case for as many of Bernie's supporters and I've seen very little to give me much confidence that it will be different now.
    This is wrong, but not surprising that you parrot MSM narrative about Bernie.

    Bernie supporters from the 2016 primary supported Hillary more than Hillary supporters backing Obama in 2008.

    Finally, Clinton is somewhat right that she had “convinced [her] supporters to vote for” Obama, but the idea that Sanders hadn’t done the same for her is patently untrue. Exit polling had 15 percent of Clinton-supporting Democrats voting for McCain in 2008. A recent study showed 12 percent of Sanders voters ended up going for Trump. If anything, Sanders convinced a little more of his supporters than Clinton did.

    And it’s not surprising he did. Sanders ultimately swallowed his pride, endorsed Clinton, campaigned with her, and sternly warned his backers at the Democratic National Convention of the disaster that would unfold if they refused to vote for her.
    Has this boosted your confidence?

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/09/c...imary-new-book

  7. #4057
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
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    No offense to any moderates, but this is my view of them as a group.

    They prefer a feeling of security, nothing is fundamentally going to change. They want to put the country back on auto-pilot, so everyone just stops fighting. Their fear of Sanders is derived from mainstream media, hosted by idiots like Chuck Todd yesterday comparing Sanders' supporters to an "army of Brownshirts", comparing the first major Jewish candidate for POTUS to Hitler. It's not surprising they've absorbed so much fear and hostility towards Sanders. Will this affect moderates to the point of keeping them home in a Sanders/Trump race? I'm not sure. I would think the media would stop these insane attacks on Sanders if he wins the nomination, and the media attacks on Trump in '16 only fueled him, so its uncertain how much affect it would have even if it continued.

    At the end of the day, the 2016 general election was won by depressing turnout. Most of the usual voters came out, but Clinton's status quo campaign didn't excite anybody. Bernie's base is the opposite of seeking an auto-pilot candidate, and that's why they fight harder than the others, and that's why they would turn out the most independents and typical non-voters. It's like GITH says about economics, most people on this board are relatively wealthy and comfortable. They don't see the motivation for a change candidate. But there's a lot more people suffering in poverty who wouldn't turn out for anybody but Bernie than there are moderates who normally vote who would flip to Trump. Probably by a ratio of 1000-1.

  8. #4058
    All Star Stephen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    This is wrong, but not surprising that you parrot MSM narrative about Bernie.
    You don't know anything about me, but hey - if you want to put me in some box to feed your sense of intellectual superiority and need to be condescending then please go right ahead.

    We'll all just fall into the same trap the Democrats/Progressive/Liberals/etc fall into every time - we can't get out of the way of our egos and the idea that individually we are smarter than everyone one else and anyone who disagrees is an idiot or a puppet.

  9. #4059
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
    You don't know anything about me, but hey - if you want to put me in some box to feed your sense of intellectual superiority and need to be condescending then please go right ahead.

    We'll all just fall into the same trap the Democrats/Progressive/Liberals/etc fall into every time - we can't get out of the way of our egos and the idea that individually we are smarter than everyone one else and anyone who disagrees is an idiot or a puppet.
    Are you denying that you parrot an MSM narrative that's been disproven? Or did you come to this conclusion about Bernie supporters abandoning whoever the nominee is on your own?

    You made a baseless claim. I posted a link to show that your assumption is wrong. What's the problem?

  10. #4060
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    Quote Originally Posted by B-Fly View Post
    In my opinion, because it's essentially a binary result (the chances of anyone other than Trump or the Democratic nominee winning the election are essentially nil), I think it *should* be a binary choice, even for those who are not particularly happy with either choice.
    Oh I don't disagree with you at all, I'm just saying we should talk about reality and not utopia. A bunch of people won't vote. And factors that keep people away from the polls voting against Trump are very relevant in the discussion.

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