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I wish I had the confidence that you guys have when it comes to the election. I'm not so sure of a Biden victory at all. Why? No good reason other than Biden NEEDS to win for the sake of this country.
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"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth." -
Anything can happen with four months to go. Incumbent presidents have a big advantage. But there isn't anything besides "well, look at the polls from 2016" that any of his supporters can point to as a positive.Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
- No national polls have gone his way in months
- Very few of the battleground states are in his favor
- many states he won by a wide margin in 2016 are showing startling losses of 20%+
- His approval rating is at an all-time low at this stage for an incumbent
- he’s lost suburban whites, college educated whites, blacks, latinos, asians, women, 65% of independents, etc.
- 11.1% unemployment
- the Stock Market is negative for the year
- 130,000 COVID -related deaths and climbing
- a fierce second wave (or continuation of the 1st wave) of COVID, and he's being seen as having waved the white flag
- terrible poll ratings for his handling of COVID & the race reckoning
- Biden out-raised him over the last three months
- every day he makes another mockery of the office
- Biden has a much higher approval rating than Hillary did
- Biden has better polling numbers than Hillary did at this point
- both Hillary and Trump were political unknowns. Trump is now a known commodity as a terrible and divisive president.
- The only elected incumbent presidents who were this far behind their competitor at this point were George Bush in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1980, and both of them lost. The only non-elected incumbent who was able to overcome a deficit this large by July of their election year was Harry Truman in 1948
- and, even though it seems like eons ago, Biden pulled off one of the greatest political comebacks in modern US political history
Of course, that doesn't mean it's all over. There's still four months. 2nd Qtr GDP numbers won't help, and 3rd Qtr GDP numbers come out after Election Day.
But at least the GOP will have "But what about 2016?"Comment
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This is mostly, but not entirely true. All points are valid that you listed. However, his supporters can point to one other positive - your candidate is Joe Biden, and there's four months to go. You'll probably be able to hide him in the basement for another ten weeks or so, but that gives about seven weeks where he can screw it up.Originally posted by revo View PostI'm just here for the baseball.
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My concern is trump knows very well he is getting swamped in every poll, losing ground everywhere. What desperate moves will he make in the last 4 months? This is not a guy who will go silent into the night. What calls to violence, even more overt than he has been making now, will be issued? What cover up maneuvers, even more overt than he has done, are ahead? And since trump has demonstrated he is a sadistic sob, what is next level from caging kids torn away from their parents at the border? Or not assisting puerto rico after getting hit by hurricane to the tune of 3000 people, virtually all from the lack of response in months after? https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/29/us/pu...oll/index.html Or, this slow walk response to covid, slow walked and publicly diminished for months, that if handled by anyone else who has ever held highest office would have been handled sooner and would have resulted in maybe 100k+ fewer deaths.
What absurdly self serving and inappropriate pardons to the most vile of people will be issued, above and beyond the inappropriate pardons he has already issued? does trump have limitless pardon power, as in can he release every trump supporting violent white power locked up with a nod and wink understanding that they will have his back, to make extricating trump from WH a violent affair? With his family, in particular a clinical psychologist, disclosing, for instance, she has zero issue declaring trump is a sociopath and narcissist, without hyberbole, and trumps sister stating trump is a clown... Stop thinking some behavior is too outrageous for trump to commit, he again and again shows there are no depths of depravity beyond this evil fker.Comment
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That’s fair, but this election is not about Joe Biden. I believe, and have seen polling figures that most of whom are voting for Biden are likely voting against Trump and not “for” Biden.Originally posted by chancellor View Post
With Bernie’s endorsement, I think most of the Bernie Bros are onboard.
So his screwups, if any, at this stage just won’t make a dent IMO.Comment
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If only Trump felt the need to Tweet out this Rasmussen poll..
Biden up 50-40 in their national poll. I disregard Reasmussen all the time as they are rated C+ on 538, but when your home team can't give you a good national poll you know things aren't going well.Comment
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This time around, it seems like Trump's instinct and ability to suck up all the oxygen in the room is hurting him rather than helping him.Originally posted by revo View Post"Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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New University of Texas/Dallas Morning News poll has Biden up 5% there. Wowza.Comment
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I don't wanna even entertain the possibility that Trump could lose Texas, because I don't think it will happen, and close don't count in National elections...but I can't help be filled with glee at the prospect. What a stunning indictment of him as POTUS if he lost what is by fart he largest GOP state, the most important state for GOP national elections, and a state no one would have dreamed could be in play for a Democrat in 2020 just a few years ago.Originally posted by revo View PostComment
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I'm not counting on it. But many of these polls in states he won by 10% have been showing Biden leading or within the margin of error, and that's disastrous for him. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostComment
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Everything is bigger in Texas....Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post"Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.Comment
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I saw the spacing error and was gonna correct it, but it seemed fitting to keep it.Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
Channeling my inner TrumpComment
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As Dumpy claimed today “he created” the oil industry and then “saved it,” the Dallas schools chancellor said he wasn’t sure kids would be able to return to school in the fall.
Two of the biggest things against Dumpy’s reelection bid are kids t to schools (or, an abortive attempt to do so) and the potential cancellation of the college football season. Both would be devastating hits to his bid.Comment
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I hope you're right, because both of those things seem inevitable right now.Originally posted by revo View PostComment
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