Election 2020

[frae]

so why would it make people nervous?

I'm so confused.

It doesn’t make me nervous I feel much better after some convention noise polls have adjusted.

[Ken]

It doesn’t make me nervous I feel much better after some convention noise polls have adjusted.

I agree with you, I'm confused by the suggestion that anyone would be nervous based on 77% since that's actually an uptick.

[chancellor]

so why would it make people nervous?

I'm so confused.

Because 538.com was the most conservative of the pollers in 2016, and if my memory serves right, had Clinton at an 85-86/100 chance of winning. Even Rasmussen - who traditionally leans right - had Clinton at higher odds to win.

[frae]

Because 538.com was the most conservative of the pollers in 2016, and if my memory serves right, had Clinton at an 85-86/100 chance of winning. Even Rasmussen - who traditionally leans right - had Clinton at higher odds to win.

Nope 71.4/28.6 on election eve.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Also they nailed popular vote

[DMT]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517522-bloomberg-pays-fines-for-32000-felons-in-florida-so-they-can-vote

[chancellor]

Nope 71.4/28.6 on election eve.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Also they nailed popular vote

My bad - I got distracted and left out "at about this time in 2016".

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-the-race-stands-with-three-weeks-to-go/

[frae]

My bad - I got distracted and left out "at about this time in 2016".

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-weeks-to-go/

If you follow my link you can click on dates and on sept 21 it was 57.6 Clinton and 42.4 Trump.

[Sour Masher]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-they-can-vote

When you think of potential impact of money spent in this election, this has the potential for a huge return on investment.

[Sour Masher]

If you follow my link you can click on dates and on sept 21 it was 57.6 Clinton and 42.4 Trump.

Oh wow, that makes me feel a lot better--I had not realized it was that close this time last time. That is pretty surprising to me. That is great link. Other than the debates, what was it that caused things to tighten around now and then gradually poll better and better for HRC after Sept 26th? That gap was most extreme right at the 3rd debate, and then began to narrow after that. It wasn't really the debates, was it? They don't typically have that kind of impact.

[frae]

Oh wow, that makes me feel a lot better--I had not realized it was that close this time last time. That is pretty surprising to me. That is great link. Other than the debates, what was it that caused things to tighten around now and then gradually poll better and better for HRC after Sept 26th? That gap was most extreme right at the 3rd debate, and then began to narrow after that. It wasn't really the debates, was it? They don't typically have that kind of impact.

I’m on my phone but don’t you think it was her emails? Not sure, or when Comey released his statement.

[revo]

Only 77/100? That's going to make a lot of your counterparts on the board very, very nervous.

It does, lol! Still, I'll take 77% as of today.

I’m on my phone but don’t you think it was her emails? Not sure, or when Comey released his statement.

My own personal experience, I had a knot in my stomach when Comey released his statement a few days before Election Day. That was when I went from 'this is in the bag' to 'OMG, WTF just happened?'

Yes, I do believe Comey's statement, not her lack of campaigning in certain states, cost her the election. The latter didn't help, but the former did her in.


A few polls just released on RealClearPolitics just aren't good for Dopey:
- Des Moines Register has Iowa tied
- Two Michigan (MRG, Reuters) polls both show Biden with a 5% lead
- Two NC polls (Emerson, Reuters) has a tie or Biden +1%
- UGA has Georgia deadlocked


I'll say it again -- if ALL of these polls are off the mark again, then fool me twice and F them. But NONE of them have had Trump up AT ALL at any time recently, except in the states that have suddenly become battlegrounds (Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina).

[onejayhawk]

A few polls just released on RealClearPolitics just aren't good for Dopey:
- Des Moines Register has Iowa tied
- Two Michigan (MRG, Reuters) polls both show Biden with a 5% lead
- Two NC polls (Emerson, Reuters) has a tie or Biden +1%
- UGA has Georgia deadlocked

I'll say it again -- if ALL of these polls are off the mark again, then fool me twice and F them. But NONE of them have had Trump up AT ALL at any time recently, except in the states that have suddenly become battlegrounds (Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina).

They are good for Trump, except maybe the Michigan poll. Biden had all summer to try and build a lead, but didn't. Even Michigan is close enough for Trump to work on winning.

It's worth noting again that in 2016 Trump did not have the resources to have a ground game, so he piggybacked on Senate races. It proved a winning strategy, but this time he's putting a lot of money into local offices.

Something chancellor's 538 article mentions is that it is not just American politics that conservative underpoll. It has happened in England, Israel, Germany.

J

[revo]

They are good for Trump, except maybe the Michigan poll. Biden had all summer to try and build a lead, but didn't. Even Michigan is close enough for Trump to work on winning.

Ummm, these are polls in historically favorable red states (Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia). What are you talking about?

2016 Election
North Carolina: Trump +3.67%
Iowa: Trump +9.41%
Georgia: Trump +5.09%

If anything, Trump had FOUR YEARS to maintain or build on these leads, but blew them wildly. But yeah, Biden had an entire summer. LOL.

[frae]

Cook Political moves CO Senate race from tossup to lean D. That puts AZ and CO in lean D for pickups and AL in lean R for a loss so at +1. Every seat matters, but getting to 50 and Biden winning is a start. IA, Maine, NC, and MT are all reasonable wins and GA 1 with Perdue is also rated a tossup. That's 5 seats that D need 2 from if Biden wins or 3 if he loses. No other real seats I see D's having any chance of losing that they control MI is the only one rated as a lean D and if we expand the options to the leans then the R's are defending lean seats in SC, GA-2 (assuming R's don't sweep the jungle primary), and KS.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/colorado-senate/colorado-senate-moves-toss-lean-democrat

[onejayhawk]

Ummm, these are polls in historically favorable red states (Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia). What are you talking about?

2016 Election
North Carolina: Trump +3.67%
Iowa: Trump +9.41%
Georgia: Trump +5.09%

If anything, Trump had FOUR YEARS to maintain or build on these leads, but blew them wildly. But yeah, Biden had an entire summer. LOL.

Trump did a lot in four years. It will be a landmark Presidency, which is a good thing, just to be clear. Trump also solidified his base Doubters no longer doubt and he will not lose many votes to the Libertarians.

Regardless of Trump, Biden will not perform as well as Hillary did. Not close.

J