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Thread: Election 2020

  1. #1

    Election 2020

    The 2018 election is in the books with a clear win for the Democrats, but not the hoped-for wave. A great deal is not known about 2020, beginning with whether the current President will run for re-election. We may not know that for sure for most of another year. By then the Democrat's traditional gaggle will be complete. RCP put out an article covering a number of the candidates expressing interest by visiting Iowa and New Hampshire.

    For the Republicans, that includes Jeff Flake, outgoing Senator from Arizona and John Kasich, one of Trump's last opponents in 2016. Neither is generating much interest nor likely to run unless Trump does not. In that case Ted Cruz and VP Mike Pence will also have a hat to throw in the ring. Four Democrats are listed, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Corey Booker, and Kamala Harris.

    The takeaway is a quote from Tom Rath, “you’ve got a sense…that no one is particularly interested in the middle.”
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...pe_138715.html

    J
    Ad Astra per Aspera

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  2. #2
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Republicans were outvoted 53-45 in the House. If this was a Presidential election, it would be a massive landslide, but it’s not a Blue Wave in your opinion? Sigh. What’s the point in answering here.

  3. #3
    All Star fuhrdog's Avatar
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    If the Dems can't win in 2020 then disband the party.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by fuhrdog View Post
    If the Dems can't win in 2020 then disband the party.
    I doubt they can win the White House in 2020 unless a recession is in progress. Trump has been too good with the economy.

    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    Republicans were outvoted 53-45 in the House. If this was a Presidential election, it would be a massive landslide, but it’s not a Blue Wave in your opinion? Sigh. What’s the point in answering here.
    I will assume you are just being a homer that thinks every win is huge. There have been studies which try to quantify the concept of a wave based on past experience.

    Based on our analysis of historical elections, we applied the following definitions:

    U.S. House—Democrats gain 48 seats
    U.S. Senate—Democrats gain seven seats
    Gubernatorial races—Democrats gain seven seats
    State legislative races—Democrats gain 494 seats
    https://ballotpedia.org/Wave_electio...6)/Full_report

    Democrats did well, but not that well. In particular they lost ground in the Senate. Their best performance was not the House but the Governors.

    BTW Traditionally a landslide is 10%, last occurring in 1984. Ironic, don't you think?

    J
    Last edited by onejayhawk; 11-22-2018 at 09:41 PM.
    Ad Astra per Aspera

    Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

    GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

    Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

    I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude

  5. #5
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Lol, ok. You’re deluding yourself.

    The economy is as strong as it’s been in decades, yet the GOP got routed.

    The Dems flipped 40 House seats
    The Dems flipped 7 Governor’s races
    The Dems flipped 380 state legislative seats, and that’s in addition to 44 they already flipped in special elections during the year
    The Dems flipped 7 state legislatures
    The Dems flipped 4 state attorney generals, giving them a majority now
    The Dems gained 14% white female voters
    The Dems flipped two former GOP strongholds

    Granted, they lost two Senate seats. You have to admit those were weak Dem incumbents and the Senate map favored the GOP from the get-go. And they lost a couple of high profile races in Florida and Georgia, but both would have been unprecedented. And they nearly ousted your hero Ted Cruz. But like CBB, keep hanging your hat on ancient races and semantics.

    You’re like the guy who says, no, losing 12-0 isn’t a beatdown, it has to be 13-0. This was a beatdown.the GOP is hemorrhaging voters it cannot afford to lose.

  6. #6
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    And did you even read the article you posted (which was a very good study). A “wave” in the modern era is defined as:

    House : 30 seats
    Senate: 6
    Governorships: 5
    State Legislature seats: -344

    Since they define a “tsunami” as exceeding in three of those, it will be classified as a “Blue Tsunami.” Thanks for making my argument!

  7. #7
    Big Leaguer Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    And did you even read the article you posted (which was a very good study). A “wave” in the modern era is defined as:

    House : 30 seats
    Senate: 6
    Governorships: 5
    State Legislature seats: -344

    Since they define a “tsunami” as exceeding in three of those, it will be classified as a “Blue Tsunami.” Thanks for making my argument!
    Look at millenials. They are literally taking over the voting constituency year by year, and they're further left than I am!

    18-29 year olds voted Dem 2-1 in the midterms. As long as Dems don't nominate another Clinton-esque candidate, that voting gap will grow. In 2020, millenials will grow as a voting bloc by 20% over 2018, and will increase their influence year over year.

  8. #8
    Big Leaguer swampdragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    Look at millenials. They are literally taking over the voting constituency year by year, and they're further left than I am!

    18-29 year olds voted Dem 2-1 in the midterms. As long as Dems don't nominate another Clinton-esque candidate, that voting gap will grow. In 2020, millenials will grow as a voting bloc by 20% over 2018, and will increase their influence year over year.
    Interesting idea, just not sure it is true.
    Find some data on this. Yes the block is growing but has started out such a small percentage.
    Maybe there is good data on O'rourke out there

  9. #9
    Big Leaguer Bernie Brewer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    Lol, ok. You’re deluding yourself.

    The economy is as strong as it’s been in decades, yet the GOP got routed.

    The Dems flipped 40 House seats
    The Dems flipped 7 Governor’s races
    The Dems flipped 380 state legislative seats, and that’s in addition to 44 they already flipped in special elections during the year
    The Dems flipped 7 state legislatures
    The Dems flipped 4 state attorney generals, giving them a majority now
    The Dems gained 14% white female voters
    The Dems flipped two former GOP strongholds

    Granted, they lost two Senate seats. You have to admit those were weak Dem incumbents and the Senate map favored the GOP from the get-go. And they lost a couple of high profile races in Florida and Georgia, but both would have been unprecedented. And they nearly ousted your hero Ted Cruz. But like CBB, keep hanging your hat on ancient races and semantics.

    You’re like the guy who says, no, losing 12-0 isn’t a beatdown, it has to be 13-0. This was a beatdown.the GOP is hemorrhaging voters it cannot afford to lose.
    To me, while I will admit the Democrats had a great showing in the midterms, are these changes permanent. Will those white women voters continue to vote for Democrats in the future, or are they simply anti-Trump and when he is gone will they flip back to thier GOP roots?
    I know in my heart that man is good. That what is right will always eventually triumph and there is purpose and worth to each and every life.

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  10. #10
    Big Leaguer hacko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bernie Brewer View Post
    To me, while I will admit the Democrats had a great showing in the midterms, are these changes permanent. Will those white women voters continue to vote for Democrats in the future, or are they simply anti-Trump and when he is gone will they flip back to thier GOP roots?
    Probably will depend on how much DAMAGE- Trump AND THE REPUBLICAN’S do in the next 2 years. Coming from someone who used to be a Republican the farther right the party became the more Democrats I voted for. I just don’t ever see me going back.

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