Election 2020

[frae]

Good polling day today for Dems in the senate...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Cunningham, Gideon, Kelly, and Peters all with leads. Maine, NC, AZ and assuming CO gets the Dems to +4 before they lose the Jones seat and then a Biden win gives them the 50-50 majority. Also lots of money pouting into Jamie Harrison since that Q poll showed him tied, over $2 million in 2 or 3 days. Lindsay might as Jon Stewart used to say really have the vapors.

https://wbt.radio.com/blogs/wbt/jamie-harrison-raises-1-million-in-24-hours

Still time to see how these races shake out, but as I said yesterday things are trending the right way for Democrats to gain control of the Senate and it is almost a lock they retain the House and could even gain a few more seats after the 2018 wave. An example of how bad things are Cook Political just moved VA 05 to toss up today..

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/virginia-house/rating-change-republicans-sound-alarm-rigglemans-va-05-moves-toss

[GwynnInTheHall]

If Kamala's anti Vax statement wasn't dangerous, they wouldn't have sent Biden out to adamantly state the opposite, that he would trust a vaccine and take it immediately if he could. I find it hilarious that when I support something Biden does in opposition to Harris, its turned into "oh yeah, Trump is the same, sure". Thats not what I've said. I've said her statement was dangerous, Biden's correction of her statement shows that I'm right. Or was Harris right to question the effectiveness of any vaccine released under a Trump administration, and Biden was wrong to refute her by emphatically stating that he would in fact take a vaccine tomorrow if he could?

You are absolutely wrong.

Anyone who has half a fucking brain would question ANY solution trump trots out for covid.

You have to be willfully ignorant to think he wouldn't sit back and allow people to die from a bogus vaccine.

I'm not an anti vaxxer, but there's no way in hell I'm taking any covid vaccine without a green light from fauci and others like him.

Trump and cronies would feed you glass and call it candy if they thought it would benefit him on election day.

If you think otherwise, I've obviously given you too much credit in the past.

The Harris statement regarding the vaccine is not an issue for anyone who has been paying attention.

[DMT]

Exactly... Here's someone from the Corona Virus task force:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/it-was-all-about-the-election-the-ex-white-house-aide-olivia-troye-on-trumps-narcissistic-mishandling-of-covid-19

She warned about the President’s push for a vaccine before the November election and said that she did not trust him to do the right thing for the country’s health and safety. “What I’m really concerned about is if they rush this vaccine and pressure people and get something out because they want to save the election,” she said.

[frae]

I found the 538 Senate forecast, not sure when it went live as I had not looked in a bit...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

They have Democrats slightly favored to win the Senate.

[chancellor]

Ok, Harris' specific statement was improperly worded, but the concern expressed about the safety and effectiveness of any vaccine rushed out before election day, is not. Trump has shown everyone his hand, so if a vaccine miraculously appears without the approval of the top scientists, then you're a fool if you would take it.

Biden didn't say he'd take a vaccine that only Trump approved. Trump touted hydroxochloroquine for months despite scant scientific evidence for its effectiveness. Chance jumping in nice to see (of course never have I seen you post an argument for Trump's reelection), but that study from Henry Ford back in July that you touted turned out to be "flawed", according to Fauci and others.

Follow ups on hydroxychloroquine:

Belgian study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...423?via%3Dihub

Saudi Arabia study, published recently: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....09.20184143v1

Overall review of studies: https://c19study.com/

The overwhelming scientific evidence in early treatment is highly positive. Late treatment is mixed.

The data from Switzerland with and without hydrochlorquine treatment is intriguing, but not scientifically analyzed. But it is safe to say death rates did not decrease when HCQ was removed from the treatment protocol. The spike in rates may not have been due to HCQ treatment ending.

Edit to add: As for my Trump support, no need to rehash. We've been down that rabbit hole before.

[Sour Masher]

Follow ups on hydroxychloroquine:

Belgian study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...423?via%3Dihub

Saudi Arabia study, published recently: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....09.20184143v1

Overall review of studies: https://c19study.com/

The overwhelming scientific evidence in early treatment is highly positive. Late treatment is mixed.

The data from Switzerland with and without hydrochlorquine treatment is intriguing, but not scientifically analyzed. But it is safe to say death rates did not decrease when HCQ was removed from the treatment protocol. The spike in rates may not have been due to HCQ treatment ending.

Edit to add: As for my Trump support, no need to rehash. We've been down that rabbit hole before.

I've always said that regardless of what ended up being true on hydrochlorquine, Trump touting it before the research was done was wildly irresponsible. He has no regard for the scientific method, just as he has no regard for the rule of law, except when he can use it as a cudgel to bludgeon his opposition. The man throws darts, and is aim is always "what is best for Donald Trump."

[GwynnInTheHall]

As for my Trump support, no need to rehash. We've been down that rabbit hole before.

No worries brother, that's what the ADA is for..... :P

[chancellor]

No worries brother, that's what the ADA is for..... :P

LOL. I shoulda added this

[chancellor]

I've always said that regardless of what ended up being true on hydrochlorquine, Trump touting it before the research was done was wildly irresponsible.

Perhaps. Our sitting around and waiting for research to be done was an epic fail with AIDS, so I'll admit that colors my view. My confidence level was higher based on the number of medical professionals I knew who were taking HCQ prophylactically almost from the start.

[Sour Masher]

I've always said that regardless of what ended up being true on hydrochlorquine, Trump touting it before the research was done was wildly irresponsible. He has no regard for the scientific method, just as he has no regard for the rule of law, except when he can use it as a cudgel to bludgeon his opposition. The man throws darts, and is aim is always "what is best for Donald Trump."

For instance, Chance, a a libertarian, do you have have any criticism of Trump urging GOP senators to go way bigger on the next round of stimulus and recovery while debt under his admin has climbed to unprecedented levels? Is there any doubt at all that he wants more money to be spent because he thinks it will help him get reelected?

[Teenwolf]

I've always said that regardless of what ended up being true on hydrochlorquine, Trump touting it before the research was done was wildly irresponsible. He has no regard for the scientific method, just as he has no regard for the rule of law, except when he can use it as a cudgel to bludgeon his opposition. The man throws darts, and is aim is always "what is best for Donald Trump."

Not trusting Trump's rhetoric is one thing, and i would absolutely never trust what he has to say. But we're talking about trust in government to protect citizens. If faith in government as a whole is diminished so greatly by such a large percentage of people on both sides of the aisle, democracy is finished.

Do you guys honestly have so little faith in government institutions that you think Trump could just fart in a bottle and call it the miracle cure and have it distributed around the country without proper testing and screening? That's lunacy to me! I understand Trump seeks to undermine all government institutions that dispute him. But he isn't looking to intentionally kill anybody, and he isn't an emperor. We see that much of the attempted shenanigans with the post office have been addressed. Trust in your institutions to preserve normalcy a little bit more than to fantasize about Trump sending out "hot shots" in vaccines.

This is why I highlight that Canada has largely avoided politicizing the vaccine. We still have some idiot conservative anti-maskers and some QAnon loonies, but we will all wait in line together when the vaccine drops because we still have faith in our institutions.

[Teenwolf]

For instance, Chance, a a libertarian, do you have have any criticism of Trump urging GOP senators to go way bigger on the next round of stimulus and recovery while debt under his admin has climbed to unprecedented levels? Is there any doubt at all that he wants more money to be spent because he thinks it will help him get reelected?

Trump's best play is to buy the electorate, and it wouldn't be that hard. Take the proposal from the Dems and accept it, put $2-$3 Tn in stimulus out to real people, watch as Dems attack him for helping people, via their own proposal, and he wins. I said as much a couple of weeks back. I don't know if he will be allowed to do it, or smart enough to do it, but this is absolutely the political play right now.

Elsewhere, concerning economic messaging, Biden came out with a strong ad attacking Trump's kneecapping the payroll tax to drain social security by 2023. These "kitchen table issues" need to be kept front and center. I'm glad to see the pivot.

[GwynnInTheHall]

LOL. I shoulda added this

You're such a Nag............

[GwynnInTheHall]

Perhaps. Our sitting around and waiting for research to be done was an epic fail with AIDS, so I'll admit that colors my view. My confidence level was higher based on the number of medical professionals I knew who were taking HCQ prophylactically almost from the start.

Same could be said with immuno boosters like D3 and C supps, AND wearing Masks, social distancing, washing hands etc. Like was said earlier--Trump throws so much shit against the wall, something will eventually stick. Now if his intent was sincerely to help, I'd forgive--but well...

[onejayhawk]

TW - We disagree on a lot, but you make excellent points on the vaccine issue. Not only did that behavior undermine COVID vaccine potential, it's been jumped on by anti-vaxxers as a whole.

I would like to see who's right on Harris' debating capability. I've heard chapter and verse about how smart she is, but didn't see it show in the Democratic debates. That said, all but one of those debates was managed like carnival barkers at a circus.

My thought exactly. She was good with a prepared line, but not quick on her feet and inexperienced in the format.

Same could be said with immuno boosters like D3 and C supps, AND wearing Masks, social distancing, washing hands etc. Like was said earlier--Trump throws so much shit against the wall, something will eventually stick. Now if his intent was sincerely to help, I'd forgive--but well...

That is so close, it's amazing that you don't get it. Trump does throw a lot of things against the wall. You claim he lies, but he's really testing sentiment. He genuinely does care and wants the whole thing to run as efficiently as possible. In general, efficiency is a hallmark of the whole administration--trade, the economy, the bureaucratic machine, etc. It all runs smoother than four years ago.