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Thread: Election 2020

  1. #1391
    Big Leaguer Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Good clip of Gabbard. Thanks for sharing.
    "There was nothing for him to do under the truck, but it's tough to blame him now that he is dead." -V.Erps 3/26/2005

  2. #1392
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Latest poll, battleground state of Pennsylvania. Trump beat Hillary by 0.7% in 2016, so this turnaround is yuuuge:

    Code:
    Quinnipiac:
    
    Biden 53%, Trump 42% - Biden + 11
    Sanders 50%, Trump 43% - Sanders +7
    Warren 47%, Trump 44% - Warren +3
    Buttigieg 45%, Trump 44% - Mayor Pete +1
    Harris 45%, Trump 45% - Tie
    Trump 46%, O'Rourke 44% - Trump +2

  3. #1393
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    Latest poll, battleground state of Pennsylvania. Trump beat Hillary by 0.7% in 2016, so this turnaround is yuuuge:

    Code:
    Quinnipiac:
    
    Biden 53%, Trump 42% - Biden + 11
    Sanders 50%, Trump 43% - Sanders +7
    Warren 47%, Trump 44% - Warren +3
    Buttigieg 45%, Trump 44% - Mayor Pete +1
    Harris 45%, Trump 45% - Tie
    Trump 46%, O'Rourke 44% - Trump +2
    Much bigger story is the Pa Democratic poll:
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-6860.html

  4. #1394
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Using 270towin.com, and using the Sabato Crystal Ball settings, we have a scenario where:
    - PA & MI are leaning Dem
    - OH & FL are leaning GOP

    That's 264 ECs for Dems, 248 for GOP.

    So the '20 election, if it plays out this way, will boil down to the GOP needing to possibly take all three of NH, AZ & WI to pull out the win.

    Last polls from each (Trump vs. Biden and Sanders), from 538.com:
    NH - Biden +10, Sanders +10 (Feb 23rd)
    AZ - Biden + 5, Sanders -9 (May 7th)
    WI - Biden +10, Sanders +7 (April 24th)

    And this is, as OneJay says, already with a great economy and low unemployment baked in for the incumbent.


  5. #1395
    Big Leaguer Teenwolf's Avatar
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    New Emerson National poll shows Biden 33% to Sanders 25%. Age range is much more even, with 46% under 50.

    So I would say that Biden has a realistic 5-10 pt lead. Certainly not crushing it, and will need to avoid his gaffes, and dance around his problematic past issues, and cling to Obama nostalgia for nearly a year. Good luck. Making deals with Republicans worked so well for his VP years... remember Obama and Biden constantly saying "the fever will break" and Republicans would come to the table to compromise? How did that work the first time? How's the supreme court looking? Who would Biden nominate to appease Republicans?

    I think the part of Obama people want most is a calm and intelligent, moral President with the charisma to convey that calm and empathy. Not many boxes checked for Biden. That's why Joe has been showcasing his emotional qualities, constantly talking about his grieving for his loved ones, while saying that he literally doesn't have time to explain his health care position. It will get old quick, and on the Obama scale of charisma as a public speaker, Biden rates well below Obama. 12 debates is a lot of talking he needs to do while keeping his foot out of his mouth. I don't believe he can make it through such a long campaign.

    Here's a video that goes into detail on the age range discrepancy between polls:


  6. #1396
    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    Using 270towin.com, and using the Sabato Crystal Ball settings, we have a scenario where:
    - PA & MI are leaning Dem
    - OH & FL are leaning GOP

    That's 264 ECs for Dems, 248 for GOP.

    So the '20 election, if it plays out this way, will boil down to the GOP needing to possibly take all three of NH, AZ & WI to pull out the win.

    Last polls from each (Trump vs. Biden and Sanders), from 538.com:
    NH - Biden +10, Sanders +10 (Feb 23rd)
    AZ - Biden + 5, Sanders -9 (May 7th)
    WI - Biden +10, Sanders +7 (April 24th)

    And this is, as OneJay says, already with a great economy and low unemployment baked in for the incumbent.

    PA is wrong. Sabato has it as tossup. These are unchanged since February.

    You might as well throw in Wisconsin and make the Blue Wall again. It worked so well last time.

    J
    Ad Astra per Aspera

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  7. #1397
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    New Emerson National poll shows Biden 33% to Sanders 25%. Age range is much more even, with 46% under 50.

    So I would say that Biden has a realistic 5-10 pt lead. Certainly not crushing it, and will need to avoid his gaffes, and dance around his problematic past issues, and cling to Obama nostalgia for nearly a year. Good luck. Making deals with Republicans worked so well for his VP years... remember Obama and Biden constantly saying "the fever will break" and Republicans would come to the table to compromise? How did that work the first time? How's the supreme court looking? Who would Biden nominate to appease Republicans?

    I think the part of Obama people want most is a calm and intelligent, moral President with the charisma to convey that calm and empathy. Not many boxes checked for Biden. That's why Joe has been showcasing his emotional qualities, constantly talking about his grieving for his loved ones, while saying that he literally doesn't have time to explain his health care position. It will get old quick, and on the Obama scale of charisma as a public speaker, Biden rates well below Obama. 12 debates is a lot of talking he needs to do while keeping his foot out of his mouth. I don't believe he can make it through such a long campaign.

    Here's a video that goes into detail on the age range discrepancy between polls:

    The problem for Bernie (and you) is that the previous Emerson poll had Sanders up 5 over Biden. So, in one month that particular poll has swung 13 points to Biden—a poll that you believe has a favorable age range and demographics for Bernie is moving away from him and quickly. It is still early (very early) in the game, but so far, given the size of the field, things could not be going better for Biden. Every single poll, repeat, every single poll, shows him increasing his lead, many of them dramatically. But as you’ve said, he is gaffe prone and 12 debates will give him ample opportunity to say something wrong and/or for someone else (or multiple someone else’s) to catch fire. But he has hit a 3 run homer in the top of the first.

  8. #1398
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
    PA is wrong. Sabato has it as tossup. These are unchanged since February.

    You might as well throw in Wisconsin and make the Blue Wall again. It worked so well last time.

    J
    Yep, I changed PA to lean Dem after yesterday's poll showing Biden up by 10.

    And ummm, this isn't "last time."



    Also, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio now officially throws his hat into the ring, expanding the Dem field to 23.

  9. #1399
    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    Yep, I changed PA to lean Dem after yesterday's poll showing Biden up by 10. And ummm, this isn't "last time." Also, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio now officially throws his hat into the ring, expanding the Dem field to 23.
    Why stop at PA? Just grab everything.

    This isn't last time. The Democrat, whoever he/she may be, has a much harder road and Trump has a much easier one.

    The irony is that absent the Mueller investigation, I believe Trump would have retired after one term. The Democrats convinced him to run again.

    J
    Ad Astra per Aspera

    Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

    GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

    Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

    I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude

  10. #1400
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
    Why stop at PA? Just grab everything.

    This isn't last time. The Democrat, whoever he/she may be, has a much harder road and Trump has a much easier one.

    The irony is that absent the Mueller investigation, I believe Trump would have retired after one term. The Democrats convinced him to run again.

    J
    When you hold an 11 point lead, is that really a toss-up at this point? It's a lean Dem. So if your panties are in a bunch over it, change "Sabato's" to "Inside Elections" and they have both Michigan and Pennsylvania as tilting Dem. Plus, they also have Florida and NC as toss ups.

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