Election 2020

[onejayhawk]

Beto and Booker rising in CNN's power rankings. Harris stays their #1.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/13/politics/2020-rankings-presidential/index.html

Note that Julian Castro announced he's forming an exploratory committee so is almost definitely throwing his hat in the ring. I'm pretty sure Martin O'Malley is in as well, but since he never gained much traction in 2016 it's hard to see a different result for him in 2020.

This does not connote good things for Democratic chances.

Early studies on the 2020 Senate races are beginning to appear. This one is from UVa. The numbers are almost the reverse of 2016--22 Republican and 12 Democratic--but Republicans are largely defending deep red states in the South, Plains, and Mountain West. Further, the Democrats are defending Alabama because of the surprising special election in 2017. Short version, only if the Democrats take the White House are they likey to take the Senate. Winning plus four and losing the White House does not seem possible.

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2020-republican-exposure-on-paper-but-not-necessarily-in-practice/

J

[chancellor]

This does not connote good things for Democratic chances.

Interesting, but I disagree. I think either Harris or Booker will do much better than the aged triumvirate of Biden, Sanders or Warren.

[nots]

Interesting, but I disagree. I think either Harris or Booker will do much better than the aged triumvirate of Biden, Sanders or Warren.

Harris maybe....I just don’t see Wall Streets favorite Senator being the option most Democrats are looking for.

[chancellor]

Harris maybe....I just don’t see Wall Streets favorite Senator being the option most Democrats are looking for.

Agree that it's unlikely he (or Beto, for similar reasons) doesn't get through the primary. But in the general, I think Booker would do very well. But good catch, I should have been more specific.

[onejayhawk]

Interesting, but I disagree. I think either Harris or Booker will do much better than the aged triumvirate of Biden, Sanders or Warren.

At some point, sure. That point is not yet and I doubt it will be 2020. That said, almost anything is better than Warren, Biden, Sanders. Harris and Booker are an improvement but not much of one.

I suspect the actual nominee is not yet in the conversation as a serious candidate. Obama was not in late-2006. Clinton was not in late-1990.

J

[revo]

First poll of potential Iowa Caucusers has Biden in the lead with 33%, followed by Bernie at 19% and Beto at 11%. Most important issue? Being able to beat Trump, 54%.

Surprisingly, Michael Bloomberg has a 31% unfavorable rating (2nd highest behind Hillary). Bernie is 3rd there with a 22% unfavorable rating.

[gcstomp]

Biden floating Beto as his #2. Feels like the ah ha moment.

[Judge Jude]

two white men on that ticket? not being sarcastic to say that won't fly in some quarters. at least one of them isn't old, so there's that.

[revo]

two white men on that ticket? not being sarcastic to say that won't fly in some quarters. at least one of them isn't old, so there's that.

If Beto doesn't win the nomination outright, I like this ticket, but I think a Biden/Harris ticket could be difficult to overcome.

[B-Fly]

Surprisingly, Michael Bloomberg has a 31% unfavorable rating (2nd highest behind Hillary). Bernie is 3rd there with a 22% unfavorable rating.

What's remotely surprising about high national unfavorable ratings for high-profile Jewish men from NYC?

[revo]

Check this out, my dad's 1959 James Madison HS (Brooklyn, NY) yearbook:

Dad Yearbook.jpg

Bernie Sanders Yearbook.jpg

Top photo is my dad, bottom photo is Bernie Sanders. Since my dad has passed away, I don't know if they knew each other, but I'm sure they did in some capacity.

Also in Madison's Class of 1959: infamous Mafia hitman Roy DeMeo. I'd love to have gone to a few of those parties.....

[Judge Jude]

incredibly, my father went to the same high school.

but he was Class of 1936 (yes, he was old when I was born!). the school's top athlete was Marty Glickman, who as a teenager qualified for the Olympics that year in Berlin. a certain Chancellor of Germany was said to have influenced the removal of Glickman and another Jewish athlete from competing in the Games.

my Dad - who was not a sports fan, really (my Mom was) - once told me that for some reason he still remembered the name of the quarterback on archrival Erasmus High because he was that impressive.

"Guy's name was Sid Luckman," he told me. "I wonder if he went any further in football."

uh, yeah. he quarterbacked the Chicago Bears to the NFL title in 1940, 1941, 1943, and 1946 and landed in the College and Pro Football Halls of Fame.

[B-Fly]

LOL. My father also went to Madison. Maybe even class of 1959, because I think he graduated at age 16, but I'm double checking with him. He's getting old so he doesn't text me back right away.

[baldgriff]

LOL. My father also went to Madison. Maybe even class of 1959, because I think he graduated at age 16, but I'm double checking with him. He's getting old so he doesn't text me back right away.

At least he can text.. My father barely can use the flip phone he has.

[B-Fly]

My Dad was Madison Class of 1960.