Election 2020

[onejayhawk]

Using 270towin.com, and using the Sabato Crystal Ball settings, we have a scenario where:
- PA & MI are leaning Dem
- OH & FL are leaning GOP

That's 264 ECs for Dems, 248 for GOP.

So the '20 election, if it plays out this way, will boil down to the GOP needing to possibly take all three of NH, AZ & WI to pull out the win.

Last polls from each (Trump vs. Biden and Sanders), from 538.com:
NH - Biden +10, Sanders +10 (Feb 23rd)
AZ - Biden + 5, Sanders -9 (May 7th)
WI - Biden +10, Sanders +7 (April 24th)

And this is, as OneJay says, already with a great economy and low unemployment baked in for the incumbent.

PA is wrong. Sabato has it as tossup. These are unchanged since February.

You might as well throw in Wisconsin and make the Blue Wall again. It worked so well last time.

J

[nots]

New Emerson National poll shows Biden 33% to Sanders 25%. Age range is much more even, with 46% under 50.

So I would say that Biden has a realistic 5-10 pt lead. Certainly not crushing it, and will need to avoid his gaffes, and dance around his problematic past issues, and cling to Obama nostalgia for nearly a year. Good luck. Making deals with Republicans worked so well for his VP years... remember Obama and Biden constantly saying "the fever will break" and Republicans would come to the table to compromise? How did that work the first time? How's the supreme court looking? Who would Biden nominate to appease Republicans?

I think the part of Obama people want most is a calm and intelligent, moral President with the charisma to convey that calm and empathy. Not many boxes checked for Biden. That's why Joe has been showcasing his emotional qualities, constantly talking about his grieving for his loved ones, while saying that he literally doesn't have time to explain his health care position. It will get old quick, and on the Obama scale of charisma as a public speaker, Biden rates well below Obama. 12 debates is a lot of talking he needs to do while keeping his foot out of his mouth. I don't believe he can make it through such a long campaign.

Here's a video that goes into detail on the age range discrepancy between polls:

The problem for Bernie (and you) is that the previous Emerson poll had Sanders up 5 over Biden. So, in one month that particular poll has swung 13 points to Biden—a poll that you believe has a favorable age range and demographics for Bernie is moving away from him and quickly. It is still early (very early) in the game, but so far, given the size of the field, things could not be going better for Biden. Every single poll, repeat, every single poll, shows him increasing his lead, many of them dramatically. But as you’ve said, he is gaffe prone and 12 debates will give him ample opportunity to say something wrong and/or for someone else (or multiple someone else’s) to catch fire. But he has hit a 3 run homer in the top of the first.

[revo]

PA is wrong. Sabato has it as tossup. These are unchanged since February.

You might as well throw in Wisconsin and make the Blue Wall again. It worked so well last time.

J

Yep, I changed PA to lean Dem after yesterday's poll showing Biden up by 10.

And ummm, this isn't "last time."



Also, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio now officially throws his hat into the ring, expanding the Dem field to 23.

[onejayhawk]

Yep, I changed PA to lean Dem after yesterday's poll showing Biden up by 10. And ummm, this isn't "last time." Also, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio now officially throws his hat into the ring, expanding the Dem field to 23.

Why stop at PA? Just grab everything.

This isn't last time. The Democrat, whoever he/she may be, has a much harder road and Trump has a much easier one.

The irony is that absent the Mueller investigation, I believe Trump would have retired after one term. The Democrats convinced him to run again.

J

[revo]

Why stop at PA? Just grab everything.

This isn't last time. The Democrat, whoever he/she may be, has a much harder road and Trump has a much easier one.

The irony is that absent the Mueller investigation, I believe Trump would have retired after one term. The Democrats convinced him to run again.

J

When you hold an 11 point lead, is that really a toss-up at this point? It's a lean Dem. So if your panties are in a bunch over it, change "Sabato's" to "Inside Elections" and they have both Michigan and Pennsylvania as tilting Dem. Plus, they also have Florida and NC as toss ups.

[senorsheep]

The problem for Bernie (and you) is that the previous Emerson poll had Sanders up 5 over Biden. So, in one month that particular poll has swung 13 points to Biden—a poll that you believe has a favorable age range and demographics for Bernie is moving away from him and quickly. It is still early (very early) in the game, but so far, given the size of the field, things could not be going better for Biden. Every single poll, repeat, every single poll, shows him increasing his lead, many of them dramatically. But as you’ve said, he is gaffe prone and 12 debates will give him ample opportunity to say something wrong and/or for someone else (or multiple someone else’s) to catch fire. But he has hit a 3 run homer in the top of the first.

I wonder how many investigators are combing Washington right now for Biden's Christine Blasey Ford?

[Kevin Seitzer]

I wonder how many investigators are combing Washington right now for Biden's Christine Blasey Ford?

What Kavanaugh and his friend did to Christine Blasey Ford is something that I would hope is rare even within Washington. Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think most men, even men who have been in power, have attempted forcible rape. For example, the stuff that George HW Bush did was certainly wrong and abused his position of power but came nowhere close to what Ford accused Kavanaugh of doing.

[Judge Jude]

What Kavanaugh and his friend did to Christine Blasey Ford is something that I would hope is rare even within Washington. Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think most men, even men who have been in power, have attempted forcible rape.

wow.

we have entered the Twilight Zone - guilty until proven innocent!

I'll wait and see if there is any adjustment make to that shocking quote.

[senorsheep]

What Kavanaugh and his friend did to Christine Blasey Ford is something that I would hope is rare even within Washington. Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think most men, even men who have been in power, have attempted forcible rape. For example, the stuff that George HW Bush did was certainly wrong and abused his position of power but came nowhere close to what Ford accused Kavanaugh of doing.

I was going for "A woman willing to speak publicly about having been the victim of inappropriate behavior." Scratch the "Christine Blasey Ford" reference, if it distracts from my suggestion that Joe might run into some serious #metoo trouble.

[Bernie Brewer]

What Christine Blasey Ford and her Democratic friends did to Brett Kavanuagh is something that I would hope is rare even within Washington. Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think most women, even women who have been coerced by powerful people in the political opposition party, would ever falsely accuse an otherwise honorable public servant with an hereto for squeaky clean reputation of forcible rape. Accuse him of a crime so long ago that it was unprovable and therefore would only serve to impeach his hard earned career long built character. But this is where we are in the current political climate.

Fixed it for you.

[Bernie Brewer]

There’s no media bias at all. Nope. None. Now that we have 23 Dems running, the folks at CNN keep saying things like “what a deep talented field” but in 2015 the GOP field was “overcrowded and reflected the disarray within the party.” It kind of makes me chuckle.

[nots]

There’s no media bias at all. Nope. None. Now that we have 23 Dems running, the folks at CNN keep saying things like “what a deep talented field” but in 2015 the GOP field was “overcrowded and reflected the disarray within the party.” It kind of makes me chuckle.

Nothing says ‘deep and talented’ better than Beto filming his haircut while talking about his ‘nasty’ ear hair.

[Judge Jude]

I would say that both 2016 Rs and 2020 Ds each feature/d plenty of well-qualified candidates.
seems silly to say otherwise

[Kevin Seitzer]

wow.

we have entered the Twilight Zone - guilty until proven innocent!

I'll wait and see if there is any adjustment make to that shocking quote.

I believe her testimony. It was quite convincing. I did not find his evasive testimony to the contrary to be at all convincing. He had every mark of a liar. Yes, if he did it, it's incredibly shocking.

What is sad is how many people fell for his faux outrage, apparently including you.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I was going for "A woman willing to speak publicly about having been the victim of inappropriate behavior." Scratch the "Christine Blasey Ford" reference, if it distracts from my suggestion that Joe might run into some serious #metoo trouble.

Okay, understood. I don't know whether he has that in his background, and wouldn't want to assume that he does, but I find it plausible.