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Thread: Election 2020

  1. #2361
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid nullnor's Avatar
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    Warren is unelectable

  2. #2362
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nullnor View Post
    Warren is unelectable
    Why do you think so?

  3. #2363
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Latest national poll has Biden up a whopping 15% on Trump:

    Code:
    General Election: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post	Biden 55, Trump 40	Biden +15
    General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	ABC News/Wash Post	Sanders 52, Trump 43	Sanders +9
    General Election: Trump vs. Warren	ABC News/Wash Post	Warren 51, Trump 44	Warren +7
    General Election: Trump vs. Harris	ABC News/Wash Post	Harris 50, Trump 43	Harris +7
    General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg	ABC News/Wash Post	Buttigieg 47, Trump 43	Buttigieg +4

  4. #2364
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMT View Post
    Gimme a break. You tout Warren's lack of racial diversity among her supporters, but ignore Biden's overwhelming advantage among African Americans. Talk about double-speak.
    Biden has been shown to attract the same type of voters as Sanders in terms of education level, income, and racial diversity. They're both doing great with largely similar groups of voters. That's one reason I'm so optimistic Bernie will pull ahead once Biden starts slipping. He's way ahead of Warren for Biden voters 2nd choice, and their current supporters make it seem very likely Biden's exodus goes largely to Bernie.

    Nothing to say about Warren's $10M after she claimed to have a 100% grassroots funded campaign? No comment on her meeting with Hillary Clinton, or wooing super delegates? No comment on her avoiding the question of her military budget approvals? Nope, just deflection about Biden. You crack me up.

  5. #2365
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TranaGreg View Post
    genuine question: so given that this has been going on for some time now, why do you think he's polling as well as he is? my thought is that the general populace doesn't care about these details. But you seem to think that they will wake up suddenly & gain perspective ... maybe I'm too cynical but I don't see that happening.
    It's a number of things going on. Not enough people paying attention yet, not nearly enough critical media, mostly media propping Biden up. I think it will become impossible to brush aside, or to call "gaffes", at some point, but the denial of reality happening now can't last several more debates and months of closer scrutiny, or an examination of his failing health. He also needs to dip below Sanders and Warren in multiple polls, because once the "electability" argument is gone, he has nothing left, and his entire base of support abandons him.

    Do you see him winning the primary at this point? I'm already much more concerned about Warren. Apparently Biden is prepared to attack Warren in tonight's debate by going after her history as a corporate lawyer, and demanding she shows more transparency. The fact that his team put the strategy out early is baffling, and he will get hit back much harder than he hits. If Warren sees a bump from a Biden clash, I'll be bummed.

  6. #2366
    Journeyman TranaGreg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    It's a number of things going on. Not enough people paying attention yet, not nearly enough critical media, mostly media propping Biden up. I think it will become impossible to brush aside, or to call "gaffes", at some point, but the denial of reality happening now can't last several more debates and months of closer scrutiny, or an examination of his failing health. He also needs to dip below Sanders and Warren in multiple polls, because once the "electability" argument is gone, he has nothing left, and his entire base of support abandons him.

    Do you see him winning the primary at this point? I'm already much more concerned about Warren. Apparently Biden is prepared to attack Warren in tonight's debate by going after her history as a corporate lawyer, and demanding she shows more transparency. The fact that his team put the strategy out early is baffling, and he will get hit back much harder than he hits. If Warren sees a bump from a Biden clash, I'll be bummed.
    I don't know about winning the primary but I don't think he'll suddenly fall dramatically. Those who are supporting him now will overlook a lot - they've been overlooking the gaffes you've been talking about, they will continue to in the future. The question is where will the undecided in the party will go. I think each of Biden, Warren, Harris, & Sanders have their fair share of negatives ... it will largely depend on who can overcome them - or mask them - enough that they can draw wider appeal.
    It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.
    Some people think he's playing chess when actually his aides are trying to stop him from eating the pieces.

  7. #2367
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TranaGreg View Post
    I don't know about winning the primary but I don't think he'll suddenly fall dramatically. Those who are supporting him now will overlook a lot - they've been overlooking the gaffes you've been talking about, they will continue to in the future. The question is where will the undecided in the party will go. I think each of Biden, Warren, Harris, & Sanders have their fair share of negatives ... it will largely depend on who can overcome them - or mask them - enough that they can draw wider appeal.
    Because they're not major gaffes. The guy speaks for an hour on stage without issue, mistakenly says "Margaret Thatch..." once before catching himself.......and this makes him senile? According to TW it does. Now I'm not saying that he's the most dynamic speaker or candidate, and the guy is 76, but I think the vast majority of Biden supporters know he's the best shot to beat Trump, and they're OK with that knowing full well he's going to have a dynamic VP who will likely be pushed for the head of the ticket in '24 on day one. Essentially, Biden will be a one-term President who's only needed to oust Trump, and his supporting cast will be doing the work for him while he's just the figurehead. America needs a stable moderate now more than ever, and Biden is the only one who fits that bill who has a fighting chance of winning.

  8. #2368
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    No candidate's record is perfect, and all will be attacked for something in their past at some point. It is how they handle it that will matter.

    Few competitors are positioned to attack Sanders on his progressive bona fides, so most attacks toward him will be about his anti-capitalism stances, but at some point, I expect someone to bring up his support for the MIC when it benefits his constituents. He gets a lot of support from defense contractors, because he has been an ally to them when it means jobs for Vermont. For instance, just recently in 2016, he supported $1.2 trillion in funding for that boondoggle that is the F-35. Years ago, as mayor of Burlington, he ordered protesters be arrested when they were protesting a munitions factory making weapons going to central America regime change. So, his record on the MIC is pretty weak, but I understand it--he has done on that issue what all politicians end up doing. Sometimes you have to do what is best for your constituents even if it goes against your ideals. He and all the candidates will have to explain that in the best way possible to voters when faced with such issues.

  9. #2369
    Journeyman TranaGreg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    No candidate's record is perfect, and all will be attacked for something in their past at some point. It is how they handle it that will matter.

    Few competitors are positioned to attack Sanders on his progressive bona fides, so most attacks toward him will be about his anti-capitalism stances, but at some point, I expect someone to bring up his support for the MIC when it benefits his constituents. He gets a lot of support from defense contractors, because he has been an ally to them when it means jobs for Vermont. For instance, just recently in 2016, he supported $1.2 trillion in funding for that boondoggle that is the F-35. Years ago, as mayor of Burlington, he ordered protesters be arrested when they were protesting a munitions factory making weapons going to central America regime change. So, his record on the MIC is pretty weak, but I understand it--he has done on that issue what all politicians end up doing. Sometimes you have to do what is best for your constituents even if it goes against your ideals. He and all the candidates will have to explain that in the best way possible to voters when faced with such issues.
    So if you're Biden's campaign director the typical play would seem to be to offer Harris the eventual veep position in return for her being the bulldog with Sanders & then Warren; Biden can then take the high road.

  10. #2370
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TranaGreg View Post
    So if you're Biden's campaign director the typical play would seem to be to offer Harris the eventual veep position in return for her being the bulldog with Sanders & then Warren; Biden can then take the high road.
    That is one play. I know many think Harris is an obvious VP pick for Biden, but IDK--she has been brutal in attacking him. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. I think he is more likely to go with Stacy Abrams or another current non-candidate.

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