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Thread: Election 2020

  1. #2331
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nots View Post
    I think this is an interesting https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/joe...-20190905.html
    The author is a big Sanders guy who authored an ebook about him in 2016.
    So this article stated that Biden is the safest choice because he has older black voters, whereas Bernie is dominating young black voters. Old black voters are the most reliable Democratic supporters. Why target a group you already have in the bag at the expense of millenials which have way more undecided voters? How does that make any strategic sense? Those interviewed even said they just wanted someone to get rid of Trump, so they've already said they'll vote Dem no matter what.

  2. #2332
    Journeyman TranaGreg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    ... Rational people see ...
    TW, (or anyone else) - why is that you think that the majority of people, people who either voted for Trump or stayed home in 2016, why is it that you think these people will now see candidates rationally? Why is it that you think that the same forces which drove people in 2016 now won't apply in 2020?
    It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.
    Some people think he's playing chess when actually his aides are trying to stop him from eating the pieces.

  3. #2333
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    Quote Originally Posted by TranaGreg View Post
    TW, (or anyone else) - why is that you think that the majority of people, people who either voted for Trump or stayed home in 2016, why is it that you think these people will now see candidates rationally? Why is it that you think that the same forces which drove people in 2016 now won't apply in 2020?
    I do believe the same forces will apply as 2016. I've already talked endlessly about how his record on Iraq, NAFTA, TPP, etc. would expose him and lead him to lose vs Trump.

    But this is different. He is clearly losing his mental sharpness at the very least, if not sliding completely into senility or dementia. It's happening rapidly and obviously to anybody watching. Revo gets a pass because he didnt watch Biden's awful performance, but it will become very clear as more people tune in to the race. If he were the same conniving but convincing prick he was 10 years ago, that would be one thing, but "the fact of the matter is", Biden is a shadow of his former self. His physical degradation would lead him to lose. Even his political acumen is gone. He's claimed if he becomes President the Republican fever will break and he could make deals... he doesnt live in reality.

  4. #2334
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    Quote Originally Posted by TranaGreg View Post
    TW, (or anyone else) - why is that you think that the majority of people, people who either voted for Trump or stayed home in 2016, why is it that you think these people will now see candidates rationally? Why is it that you think that the same forces which drove people in 2016 now won't apply in 2020?
    I think there's two forces to consider that have changed:

    Force 1 - the anti-Hillary force. I don't think there's a candidate that will elicit the negative response from the moderate voter that Hillary brought. So, at least in theory, that's a positive for the Dems.
    Force 2 - the Trump momentum. Inexplicably, despite all the buffoonery, the mid-right voter in many cases has gone all in supporting Trump. I don't understand it, but somehow he has that backing now. He was starting to pick it up in 2016, but I think it's even more pronounced now.

    Which change is bigger? I fear the 2nd one is.

    But I think there are certainly different forces in play in this election than 2016.

  5. #2335
    Journeyman Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    I do believe the same forces will apply as 2016. I've already talked endlessly about how his record on Iraq, NAFTA, TPP, etc. would expose him and lead him to lose vs Trump.

    But this is different. He is clearly losing his mental sharpness at the very least, if not sliding completely into senility or dementia. It's happening rapidly and obviously to anybody watching. Revo gets a pass because he didnt watch Biden's awful performance, but it will become very clear as more people tune in to the race. If he were the same conniving but convincing prick he was 10 years ago, that would be one thing, but "the fact of the matter is", Biden is a shadow of his former self. His physical degradation would lead him to lose. Even his political acumen is gone. He's claimed if he becomes President the Republican fever will break and he could make deals... he doesnt live in reality.
    I watched part of his performance in the town hall. I don't necessarily agree with your assessment of Biden as someone who is falling off a health and mental functionality cliff. He's never been the smoothest speaker. He's always made slips of the tongue. What I see since the death of his son Beau is that he's more sober and a little slower to attack difficult subjects. He's more thoughtful and slower-paced. That doesn't mean dementia. To me I just see someone who has a new and deeper outlook on life after going through a deep loss and grief that has significantly shaped how he sees the world. I consider that a plus, if anything.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  6. #2336
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
    I watched part of his performance in the town hall. I don't necessarily agree with your assessment of Biden as someone who is falling off a health and mental functionality cliff. He's never been the smoothest speaker. He's always made slips of the tongue. What I see since the death of his son Beau is that he's more sober and a little slower to attack difficult subjects. He's more thoughtful and slower-paced. That doesn't mean dementia. To me I just see someone who has a new and deeper outlook on life after going through a deep loss and grief that has significantly shaped how he sees the world. I consider that a plus, if anything.
    Wow, so his slowed down speech, which is often jumbled and unfocused, is a sign that he's become "more thoughtful"... it was more thoughtful to forget the cities of the 2 massacres, to mix up Thatcher and May, to forget the city you're in, to forget Obama's name... he's just being more thoughtful! It's a positive thing!

    We just have to agree to disagree. Add yourself to my avatar bet if you're so confident in Biden. This is a bunch of malarkey. C'mon, man!

  7. #2337
    Journeyman Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    Wow, so his slowed down speech, which is often jumbled and unfocused, is a sign that he's become "more thoughtful"... it was more thoughtful to forget the cities of the 2 massacres, to mix up Thatcher and May, to forget the city you're in, to forget Obama's name... he's just being more thoughtful! It's a positive thing!

    We just have to agree to disagree. Add yourself to my avatar bet if you're so confident in Biden. This is a bunch of malarkey. C'mon, man!
    What the heck does your avatar bet have to do with anything?
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  8. #2338
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
    What the heck does your avatar bet have to do with anything?
    Look, I don't care who you support, so forget the avatar bet. I think you've had very concise and accurate political analysis on a variety of topics in the past, someone I most frequently wholeheartedly agree. So I find it shocking that you fail to see deterioration in Biden. That's my main point.

  9. #2339
    Journeyman Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    Look, I don't care who you support, so forget the avatar bet. I think you've had very concise and accurate political analysis on a variety of topics in the past, someone I most frequently wholeheartedly agree. So I find it shocking that you fail to see deterioration in Biden. That's my main point.
    It isn't about who I support. I don't really have a horse in this race yet.

    I'm not particularly enamored with Biden. Obviously anyone is better than Trump, and that includes Biden. But I think there are several better candidates in the race than him.

    Biden is 76 years old. People in their seventies do slow down, and that's happening to Biden. Is there some concern about whether he could handle the demands of the office at his age? Yes, of course. But I don't see any special evidence for that in the mistakes he is making in speeches, as if he is in the middle of some rapid deterioration. He's always made mistakes. If you like him, it's part of his folksy charm. If you don't like him, he's prone to gaffes. We can go back 20 years and find him doing that, I'm sure.

    I saw a big change in how he spoke and in his public manner after his son died. He became a lot more serious and more measured. I'm sure the grief took an emotional and physical toll on him, too, but I don't see that change as some sort of warning sign of imminent collapse. I do think what he has learned from the loss of his son has made him a better person and better leader, and I respect him more because of that.

    If you're talking about whether Trump could take advantage of him in a campaign, that's a different matter. I'm sure he would try. I don't know how it would play. I suspect Biden might end up coming out on top of that, but I don't know that for sure. FWIW, I don't subscribe to the idea that Biden is the best bet to beat Trump because he currently has the biggest poll leads over Trump. So much of that is being driven by name recognition.

    I'm more personally concerned about and interested in who would make the best president, not who is the best campaigner. (I'm not saying campaign style/ability doesn't matter, just that I'm not interested in it.) I have concerns about how Biden would handle the stress of the campaign and the presidency. I think the primary campaign will tell us a lot about that. But I don't expect Biden to be using a walker or residing in a nursing home two years from now.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  10. #2340
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    Bernie's population control response seems to have long legs. I got his point, but strategy wise, he should have steered in another direction. There are other ways to lessen our impact on the environment that it would have been wiser for him to focus on.

    If there is one issue that can get undecided evangelicals to lean hard away from Bernie toward Trump, it is abortion. Words like eugenics, mass murder, and imperialism are being tossed around. Ted Cruz compared him to Thanos and is getting likes for it. When Ted Cruz of all people is scoring points against you, that is concerning. This seems like it could be used against him way worse than Warren claiming Native heritage she thought she had but was mistaken about. This seems like it could have more impact than anything Biden has said.
    Last edited by Sour Masher; 09-07-2019 at 11:32 AM.

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