Election 2020

[Mithrandir]

He won't be going back to his "great" life once he's convicted.

That ain't happening.

[Sour Masher]

He won't be going back to his "great" life once he's convicted.

As much as I'd enjoy seeing it, it will never happen.

[frae]

Bump...

Are you asking for a guess based on what I feel or what I can see in polls? There are some well rated polls that have shown voter choice as high as 96, 97 and maybe a few outlier 98. I'd say by data you will usually find 3% who say they don't know. Do they know and just don't want to say or do they have a lean? Maybe. I'll say it is between 2 and 3% because there are a lot of people out there who don't follow this year round and probably don't care all that much either way for whatever reason. Ads at this point are definitely competing for a very small audience and are probably more used to drive out their vote than change anyones mind.

[heyelander]

My mail-in ballot in the serious battleground of New Jersey was received. Easiest voting experience ever, especially with a drop box in my town.

Same here in the slightly less contested CA.

[Gregg]

Are you asking for a guess based on what I feel or what I can see in polls? There are some well rated polls that have shown voter choice as high as 96, 97 and maybe a few outlier 98. I'd say by data you will usually find 3% who say they don't know. Do they know and just don't want to say or do they have a lean? Maybe. I'll say it is between 2 and 3% because there are a lot of people out there who don't follow this year round and probably don't care all that much either way for whatever reason. Ads at this point are definitely competing for a very small audience and are probably more used to drive out their vote than change anyones mind.

I would say both. But what you have written is exactly the kind of input/response I was looking for.

So do you think that this 2-3% are actually people that will take the time to vote and just make up their minds when they get there. I am not sure I would go if I didn't know who I was voting for (even if I didn't like the choice).

Thank you for your response.

[revo]

I would say both. But what you have written is exactly the kind of input/response I was looking for.

So do you think that this 2-3% are actually people that will take the time to vote and just make up their minds when they get there. I am not sure I would go if I didn't know who I was voting for (even if I didn't like the choice).

Thank you for your response.

Or they see the lines due to voter enthusiasm and don't bother voting at all.

[revo]

The S&P500 has a great history of predicting the outcome of the Presidential Election.

Since 1928, the S&P500 has had an 87% success rate in predicting results, and it's been correct in every election since 1984. It's based on the index's performance in the three months prior to the election. If the index performance is up, the incumbent party is predicted to win; if it's down, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. It's been right in 20 of 23 elections since 1928. The only times it's been wrong was in 1956, 1968 and 1980. In 1968, the incumbent LBJ decided not to run for re-election and it was arguably the most tumultuous election cycle in American history. In 1980, the Iran hostage drama and a recession were the prevailing factors, even if the S&P 500 did rally in the 3 months prior to the election. There was no drama in 1956; Ike was just an extremely popular president and war hero and easily won re-election despite a -3.2% S&P500 return in those prior 3 months.

Election day is November 3rd.

The S&P500 Index on August 3rd was 3,294.61.

The S&P500 as of today is 3262.75.

The S&P500's return in the August 3-November 3 period leading up to election day is currently:

-0.10

[frae]

I would say both. But what you have written is exactly the kind of input/response I was looking for.

So do you think that this 2-3% are actually people that will take the time to vote and just make up their minds when they get there. I am not sure I would go if I didn't know who I was voting for (even if I didn't like the choice).

Thank you for your response.

I'd need to dig into the poll more but they do poll registered voters in some polls and not likely voters so in an RV poll I think the undecideds would be naturally higher if it is a likely voter poll I still think 2-3% is probably true and what I'd say is there is always going to be people torn for reasons. It can be as simple as someone who has voted lifelong as one party and is wavering on voting for the other party for the first time. I am way too partisan to maybe get into that head space, but I think there will always be people who may be torn on how to vote and that yes even at this late date there are some people who are at least going to say to anyone who asks that they are undecided.

[frae]

NYT Sienna A+ MI poll is out and Biden leads 49-41 while Peters also leads 49-41. The kind of polling error we would need to see now would be massive. I will stick with the MI and WI are gone for Trump and his last stand is in PA.

[heyelander]

Are you asking for a guess based on what I feel or what I can see in polls? There are some well rated polls that have shown voter choice as high as 96, 97 and maybe a few outlier 98. I'd say by data you will usually find 3% who say they don't know. Do they know and just don't want to say or do they have a lean? Maybe. I'll say it is between 2 and 3% because there are a lot of people out there who don't follow this year round and probably don't care all that much either way for whatever reason. Ads at this point are definitely competing for a very small audience and are probably more used to drive out their vote than change anyones mind.

are that 2-3% even likely to vote then?

[chancellor]

are that 2-3% even likely to vote then?

In theory, those polls are for "likely voters".

[frae]

are that 2-3% even likely to vote then?

Well there are polls with both LV and RV in them you just need to read what the sample was. If it is an RV poll and someone is undecided that may well indicate unlikely to vote. In an LV sample it could be someone truly undecided who does eventually vote, but being undecided would factor in their motivation to vote if any number of things make it hard to vote the day of. Weather, lines, technical delays, a family event, work, etc. So yes I'd say anyone truly undecided is less likely to vote regardless of being an LV or RV in a sample at this point.

[frae]

Hell of a polling day for Biden so far when the Marquette Law Poll that puts him up 48-43 in WI is the bad poll for the day you are having a good day. Georgia Monmouth poll is out and as Nate indicates in this tweet Monmouth has not been very high on Biden in GA and this could be a real warning to R's in GA as the poll puts Biden up 50-48. Also Osoff leads Perdue 49-47. GA has runoffs for the non presidential races if they don't get to 50, but majority will win the state for President.

[Sour Masher]

It looks like Trump is going to lose this thing. If not for 2016, no one would even question it. The thing I will always wonder, though, is, would he have lost if not for the pandemic? We will never know. Even in victory, the thought that he may only lose because of how badly he handled the pandemic bums me about. There are so many other reasons he should lose. But we will never know. What we will know, I hope on or soon after election day, is if we finally get to turn the page on 45. The sooner the better.

[umjewman]

It looks like Trump is going to lose this thing. If not for 2016, no one would even question it. The thing I will always wonder, though, is, would he have lost if not for the pandemic? We will never know. Even in victory, the thought that he may only lose because of how badly he handled the pandemic bums me about. There are so many other reasons he should lose. But we will never know. What we will know, I hope on or soon after election day, is if we finally get to turn the page on 45. The sooner the better.

According to Trump's speech today, you should be bummed out with a Biden victory. Apparently, your kids will not be in school, there will be no graduations, no weddings, no Thanksgiving, no Christmas and no Fourth of July. It's also a vote for the biggest tax hike in history, slashing Medicare and Social Security, abolishing American energy, open borders and shredding of the Second Amendment.

This from the man who allegedly did not divulge the seriousness of COVID because he did not want to spark any panic and wanted to project calm.