Election 2020

[B-Fly]

well, I should clarify. I'm talking about this subpoena issue.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-congress-subpoena-explainer/explainer-how-powerful-are-congress-subpoenas-contempt-citations-idUSKCN1S81FP

[Teenwolf]

Any thoughts on the California Democratic convention?

Warren had a great showing, and could be a major impediment to Sanders... or if they combine for over 50% of the votes, there's the desired "unity ticket".

Beto and Kamala Harris look like toast. Harris is said to have seriously underperformed on home turf. Weird, because I thought Harris still had a chance to make it into the top 3-5, but her delivery is extremely dry, excitement will be an issue. Also cannot trust that constant all-knowing smirk of hers, it just makes her look conniving somehow. So I'm thinking she's tanking, or it looks that way.

Did anybody see Hickenlooper and Delaney mercilessly booed, Delaney actually booed for 1 full minute, booed offstage. This was for saying "Medicare for all is not smart policy, nor is it smart politics." Pretty fun stuff! Gee, I wonder why Biden didn't speak?! Hilarious to me that he's trying to run out the clock from the very start. What a loser.

Other Biden news... NYT article on Biden claiming throughout his '87-'88 campaign that he marched for civil rights, while being gently reminded by his aides that he didn't do that... it's a hilarious article, highly recommended.

Today's Biden news, he put out his Environmental Policy platform, and it sounds aggressive, but is actually the same neo-liberal BS as Trudeau, trying to implement carbon taxes as a regressive tax that does not affect consumption, while buying up credits and using trade to leverage for other countries to lower their emissions. I'm glad he's trying this approach, as it gives the others a chance to explain his fauxgressivism on the debate stage.

[frae]

Because i much prefer coming here to talk about polls and polling data than anything else here is an interesting take on the 2020 senate races from RCP.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/06/04/is_gops_senate_majority_in_more_peril_than_we_think.html

[Judge Jude]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1S81FP

thanks. I thought it was muddy, and it is.

[B-Fly]

thanks. I thought it was muddy, and it is.

It's muddy except for one thing, which is that the Supreme Court ultimately decides. Maybe I misunderstood you, but I thought you were suggesting that it's muddy whether or not the Supreme Court would ultimately have the last word on any dispute between Congress and the Executive. It's not. The court would decide if the President or anyone in his Administration had to comply with any particular Congressional subpoena.

[B-Fly]

Any thoughts on the California Democratic convention?

Warren had a great showing, and could be a major impediment to Sanders... or if they combine for over 50% of the votes, there's the desired "unity ticket".

It reaffirms my belief that, of the announced candidates, Elizabeth Warren would be the best president. The remaining question for me is whether she can bust through the misogyny of American voters and the Wall Street money that would line up against her to defeat Trump in November. But Warren is really, really solid on message and on policy, in my opinion. Not sure anyone else has shown themselves to be in her league.

[Teenwolf]

It reaffirms my belief that, of the announced candidates, Elizabeth Warren would be the best president. The remaining question for me is whether she can bust through the misogyny of American voters and the Wall Street money that would line up against her to defeat Trump in November. But Warren is really, really solid on message and on policy, in my opinion. Not sure anyone else has shown themselves to be in her league.

Warren will benefit from the media onslaught against Bernie in the progressive lane, but I bet she also collects a fair number of Biden voters that are already starting to migrate away from him, and will continue to do so. Lots of voters to spread around in that pillowy soft Biden base.

I've come back around on Warren a little bit, but her Medicare for All talking points remain a shitshow, leaving her 3rd on my list behind Sanders/Tulsi. But we've already agreed to disagree on Warren.

[B-Fly]

Warren will benefit from the media onslaught against Bernie in the progressive lane, but I bet she also collects a fair number of Biden voters that are already starting to migrate away from him, and will continue to do so. Lots of voters to spread around in that pillowy soft Biden base.

I've come back around on Warren a little bit, but her Medicare for All talking points remain a shitshow, leaving her 3rd on my list behind Sanders/Tulsi. But we've already agreed to disagree on Warren.

Gabbard can be President Warren's Secretary of Defense.

[Teenwolf]

Gabbard can be President Warren's Secretary of Defense.

You think Warren holds the same anti-interventionist views as Bernie/Gabbard? I doubt it. Warren could unseat Sanders as the progressive face based on her student debt policy, but I still think it's more likely Sanders than Warren, unless some significant shifts occur from debates. Sanders would be stronger v Trump, I've loved his general election style campaigning so far. Warren has been mixed as a speaker, but strong on policy.

[B-Fly]

You think Warren holds the same anti-interventionist views as Bernie/Gabbard? I doubt it. Warren could unseat Sanders as the progressive face based on her student debt policy, but I still think it's more likely Sanders than Warren, unless some significant shifts occur from debates. Sanders would be stronger v Trump, I've loved his general election style campaigning so far. Warren has been mixed as a speaker, but strong on policy.

From endless wars that strain military families to trade policies that crush our middle class, Washington’s foreign policy today serves the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of everyone else.


For too long, our economic policies have left workers with the short end of the stick. We need to strengthen labor standards – and then fight to enforce them. That’s why Elizabeth will oppose Trump’s new “NAFTA 2.0” unless he produces a better deal for America’s working families. It’s time to stop prioritizing corporate profits over American paychecks.


A strong military should act as a deterrent so that most of the time, we won’t have to use it. We must continue to be vigilant about the threat of terrorism, but it’s time to bring our troops home – and make sure they get support and benefits they’ve earned.


We should also leverage all the tools of our national power, not just our military might. That means cutting our bloated defense budget and ending the stranglehold of defense contractors on our military policy. It means reinvesting in diplomacy and standing with our allies to advance our shared interests. It means new solutions to new global challenges, from cybersecurity to the existential threat posed by climate change.


Our strength abroad is generated here at home. Policies that undermine working families in this country also erode our strength in the world. It’s time for a foreign policy that works for all Americans, not just wealthy elites.

https://elizabethwarren.com/issues/#a-foreign-policy-for-all

[frae]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-2020-candidates-are-more-or-less-popular-than-they-should-be/

Mayor Pete gets the biggest bump in people having an opinion of him and the opinion being positive. Biden slipped the most, but he was so sky high that isn't too shocking. Warren closed the gap on Sanders in terms of people with an opinion and how popular they are. Just an interesting thing to follow as the primaries move along.

[Teenwolf]

Biden's campaign apologizes for plagiarism in his environmental policy rollout. 30 years later... same damn mistakes being made. What a dumbass.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...age-from-green

[revo]

Latest poll, Michigan. Trump won Michigan by less than 1% in 2016:

Biden 53, Trump 41     Biden +12
Sanders 53, Trump 41    Sanders +12
Buttigieg 47, Trump 41    Buttigieg +6
Warren 47, Trump 43    Warren +4
Harris 47, Trump 44    Harris +3

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/05/biden-sanders-democrats-lead-trump-michigan-poll/1330277001/

Yet another key battleground state that is not going Trump's way.

Again, Biden/Sanders jump clear of the margin of error and Mayor Pete is doing a nice job, but the others, unless they win America's hearts in the debates, won't have the confidence of Dems to oust the madman from office.

[frae]

Just curious to hear from all sides on this, if we took politics out of it do you think DC and Puerto Rico deserve statehood? I know DC would be a very reliable Democratic state so getting it passed would likely require Democrats to gain control of all 3 chambers, but do you think they deserve to be states?

DC has over 700,000 people which gives it a population larger than Vermont and Wyoming.

Puerto Rico is more interesting as it may be more purple than blue. They have a population of over 3 million.

Five Thirty Eighty had this article up and it got me thinking...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-democrats-win-the-senate-by-adding-states-its-been-done-before/

So ignoring the fall out politically do they deserve statehood? If you are a moderate/independent or a Republican would you endorse either or both for statehood?

[frae]

Latest poll, Michigan. Trump won Michigan by less than 1% in 2016:

Biden 53, Trump 41     Biden +12
Sanders 53, Trump 41    Sanders +12
Buttigieg 47, Trump 41    Buttigieg +6
Warren 47, Trump 43    Warren +4
Harris 47, Trump 44    Harris +3

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/05/biden-sanders-democrats-lead-trump-michigan-poll/1330277001/

Yet another key battleground state that is not going Trump's way.

Again, Biden/Sanders jump clear of the margin of error and Mayor Pete is doing a nice job, but the others, unless they win America's hearts in the debates, won't have the confidence of Dems to oust the madman from office.

"While only 56% of Michigan voters know who Buttigieg is, he topped Trump 47%-41% in a hypothetical match-up, with 11% undecided. Harris held a 47%-44% edge over Trump."

That is a pretty good stat for Mayor Pete. If only 56% of those polled know him but 47% support him vs Trump he has some room to grow. Can't find how that 56% breaks down, between Dem, Rep, and Ind but there is definitely room to improve there for him.