Page 155 of 161 FirstFirst ... 55105145153154155156157 ... LastLast
Results 1,541 to 1,550 of 1609

Thread: Election 2020

  1. #1541
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
    Very slim. Possibly a little better than his shot at upsetting Cornyn, but nowhere near the chance he had at beating Cruz. Cruz was an unusually weak and vulnerable candidate.
    Cruz was a distracted candidate. He is known for the quality of his ground game and it was largely absent while the DNC poured a lot of advertising into the campaign. Cruz phoned one in and it only made things somewhat close.

    Quote Originally Posted by B-Fly View Post
    Would he have a shot at governor in 2022?
    Not if Abbott runs. There is no term limit.

    Otherwise, he might get the nomination but his current campaign will be used against him.

    J
    Ad Astra per Aspera

    Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

    GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

    Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

    I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude

  2. #1542
    Big Leaguer The Feral Slasher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    4,288
    Quote Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
    Cruz was a distracted candidate. He is known for the quality of his ground game and it was largely absent while the DNC poured a lot of advertising into the campaign. Cruz phoned one in and it only made things somewhat close.

    J
    I get so annoyed when people talk about themselves in the third person.

  3. #1543
    Administrator revo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    fuggedabboutit
    Posts
    18,781
    Latest national poll from Quinnipiac:

    Code:
    General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Quinnipiac	Biden 53, Trump 40	Biden +13
    General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	Quinnipiac	Sanders 51, Trump 42	Sanders +9
    General Election: Trump vs. Warren	Quinnipiac	Warren 49, Trump 42	Warren +7
    General Election: Trump vs. Harris	Quinnipiac	Harris 49, Trump 41	Harris +8
    General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg	Quinnipiac	Buttigieg 47, Trump 42	Buttigieg +5
    General Election: Trump vs. Booker	Quinnipiac	Booker 47, Trump 42	Booker +5

    Jeez, even Corey Booker is opening a can of whoopass on Dopey!

  4. #1544
    Big Leaguer frae's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Pittsburgh
    Posts
    3,362
    When you use one poll to tell the story you want it is just spinning or lying. I was an insane debate last night on twitter with Trump backers over the Q poll and them comparing it to 538’s probability model. I had one guy telling me 538 said Clinton would win the popular vote 71-29 (he didn't understand a probability of an electoral college win vs the popular vote projection) so this Q poll is crap. And while the lack of polling makes this data point not a strong one it isn’t necessarily crap. I don’t expect anyone to win the popular vote by 7 plus points.

    Then on the left Sanders speech writer cherry picks numbers in the Q poll as opposed to the aggregate on RCP.

    https://twitter.com/natesilver538/st...932021248?s=21

    Polls don’t give guarantees but if you ignore patterns and cherry pick data that’s being dishonest too.

    The hatred of polls and models still baffles me, they are useful tools and while they got the electoral college wrong in 2016 they nailed the popular vote and a 7/10 probability of winning isn’t a guaranteed win it is just giving you data.


    Edit: Here is the RCP polls if you don't want to read the tweets...
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tion-6730.html

    And like Trump who likes to tout any approval poll that gets him near 50% he ignores the averages...
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

    One poll can never stand on its own as clearly right and anytime that data gets cherry picked or totally ignored it drives me crazy. All polls and the way they are conducted and their track records will tell us how to look at that, but aggregate polls are a better way to see real movement.
    Last edited by frae; 06-12-2019 at 01:19 PM.

  5. #1545
    Administrator revo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    fuggedabboutit
    Posts
    18,781
    Quote Originally Posted by frae
    And like Trump who likes to tout any approval poll that gets him near 50% he ignores the averages...
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo
    It's actually great that he does this. He's not seeing the forest through the trees. If he wants to think he's at 50% because one highly-skewed poll says so, more power to him. If he wants to reject his internal polling which shows him getting battered because it's not what he wants to see, more power to him.

    Just like the Dems in 2016 had a false sense of security with polls that showed Hillary comfortably ahead nationally, let Dopey believe he's doing much better than he really is.

  6. #1546
    Big Leaguer frae's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Pittsburgh
    Posts
    3,362
    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    It's actually great that he does this. He's not seeing the forest through the trees. If he wants to think he's at 50% because one highly-skewed poll says so, more power to him. If he wants to reject his internal polling which shows him getting battered because it's not what he wants to see, more power to him.

    Just like the Dems in 2016 had a false sense of security with polls that showed Hillary comfortably ahead nationally, let Dopey believe he's doing much better than he really is.
    What I think I most failed to see was that the predicted 2.5 point popular vote win just isn't enough to mean an electoral win. Clinton won by 2.1 points I think in the popular vote, but the swing in MI and WI was more than the margin of error and the flip there was surprising and I am putting those two states on the Clinton campaign. PA was in the margin of error in a lot of polls and the other "toss-ups" (FL, NC, and OH) were all within the margin of error. Polls and projections just give us a starting point of what is likely to happen and 2016 definitely hammered that home for me. Polls are useful and an aggregate of the polls is best, but they aren't saying this is definitely what will happen. Hopefully others in my party learned our lesson and will drag everyone we know to the polls in 2020.

  7. #1547
    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    I get so annoyed when people talk about themselves in the third person.
    Steve 2.0 agrees with this take.
    “There’s no normal life, Wyatt, it’s just life. Get on with it.” – Doc Holliday

    "It doesn't matter what you think" - The Rock

    "I borked the entry." - Some dude on the Internet

  8. #1548
    Quote Originally Posted by Steve 2.0 View Post
    Steve 2.0 agrees with this take.
    Well played.

    J
    Ad Astra per Aspera

    Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

    GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

    Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

    I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude

  9. #1549
    Quote Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
    Well played.

    J
    Steve 2.0 agrees with this take.
    “There’s no normal life, Wyatt, it’s just life. Get on with it.” – Doc Holliday

    "It doesn't matter what you think" - The Rock

    "I borked the entry." - Some dude on the Internet

  10. #1550
    Big Leaguer Teenwolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,798
    Joe Biden with another interesting few days. I think he's panicking.

    First, he tweets "Happy #BestFriendsDay to my friend, @BarackObama." Accompanying a pic of 2 literal friendship bracelets that say Joe and Barack.

    CNN's David Axelrod mocked a tweet from former Vice President Joe Biden to former President Obama celebrating "Best Friends Day," with the former Obama-Biden campaign chief strategist asking if it was joke.

    "This is a joke, right?" Axelrod, who hosts "The Axe Files" on CNN, asked in a tweet on Sunday to his 1.1 million followers after Biden, a 2020 presidential candidate, wished Obama "happy #BestFriendsDay" on Saturday. Biden's post included a photo of the bracelets he shared to celebrate his Obama's 55th birthday in Aug. 2016
    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4...s-a-joke-right

    Next, I cannot believe this is real. For his major campaign promise... Joe Biden announced that he was going to cure cancer.

    I'm going to transcribe this entire statement from Biden to illustrate how nuts he is.

    "A lot of you understand what loss is. When a loss occurs, you know that uh, people come up and tell you I understand if you lose a husband, a wife, a son, a daughter, a family member, and a lot of time feel like saying 'Listen, I know how you feel,' and hadn't. You'd look at them and you'd feel like saying 'you have no idea how I feel.' But when it happens to you, you know.

    That's why I've, uh, worked so hard in my career to make sure that, uh... I promise you, if I'm elected President, you're gonna see the single most important thing that changes America, is we're gonna cure cancer."

    Aside from how bizarre and maniacal that campaign promise is... does anybody else here think that if he does something like this on stage at a debate he could be laughed/booed off the stage? What in the actual fuck kind of campaign pledge is that? Cure cancer! Fighting "the nazis" wasn't broad enough I guess.
    Last edited by Teenwolf; 06-13-2019 at 07:12 AM.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •