Election 2020

[onejayhawk]

The calendar sets up very well for her. If she can finish Top 3 in Iowa and NH, she should have a great run in SC, Calif, Tenn, Texas and Alabama in March 3. Be real tough to beat after that.

In the primaries that is.

J

[B-Fly]

Some early head-to-head polls:

General Election: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Biden 53, Trump 41 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Warren PPP (D) Warren 48, Trump 42 Warren +6
General Election: Trump vs. Harris PPP (D) Harris 48, Trump 41 Harris +7
General Election: Trump vs. O'Rourke PPP (D) O'Rourke 47, Trump 41 O'Rourke +6
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders PPP (D) Sanders 51, Trump 41 Sanders +10
General Election: Trump vs. Gillibrand PPP (D) Gillibrand 47, Trump 42 Gillibrand +5
General Election: Trump vs. Booker PPP (D) Booker 47, Trump 42 Booker +5

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Note Trump tops out at 42% in any of these, and of course it's the state-by-state vote that matters, not the popular vote, but...

[umjewman]

Some early head-to-head polls:

General Election: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Biden 53, Trump 41 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Warren PPP (D) Warren 48, Trump 42 Warren +6
General Election: Trump vs. Harris PPP (D) Harris 48, Trump 41 Harris +7
General Election: Trump vs. O'Rourke PPP (D) O'Rourke 47, Trump 41 O'Rourke +6
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders PPP (D) Sanders 51, Trump 41 Sanders +10
General Election: Trump vs. Gillibrand PPP (D) Gillibrand 47, Trump 42 Gillibrand +5
General Election: Trump vs. Booker PPP (D) Booker 47, Trump 42 Booker +5

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Note Trump tops out at 42% in any of these, and of course it's the state-by-state vote that matters, not the popular vote, but...

I presume that Cruz is up 95% to 5% on each of those prospective Dem candidates?

[Judge Jude]

they should have made up a candidate on the list such as "Sen. Ben Dover from Idaho"

General Election: Trump vs Dover PPP (D) Dover 48, Trump 42 Dover +6

[Kevin Seitzer]

Speaking of elections, one thing I think we can all be thankful for is that Rudy Guiliani got nowhere near the presidency. That guy has not aged well, and I mean mentally more than physically.

[revo]

South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttiegieg enters the race. He's a 37-year old married, gay man who served in Afghanistan.

[TS Garp]

South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttiegieg enters the race. He's a 37-year old married, gay man who served in Afghanistan.

Good breakdown here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pete-buttigieg-2020-democratic-nomination/

[DMT]

Just FYI we're 650 days away. My professor updates every class to point out just how ridiculous the coverage is and how many important stories aren't being covered in lieu of the horse race.

[onejayhawk]

Just FYI we're 650 days away. My professor updates every class to point out just how ridiculous the coverage is and how many important stories aren't being covered in lieu of the horse race.

I recall a spot in the movie Broadcast News. Jane (Holly Hunter) is giving a speech on the future of journalism and complains that a major move in Soviet foreign policy was bumped by a segment on a record domino pattern. The response from the audience, "Good."

J

[TS Garp]

Just FYI we're 650 days away. My professor updates every class to point out just how ridiculous the coverage is and how many important stories aren't being covered in lieu of the horse race.

What are you studying?

[DMT]

What are you studying?

Just taking a class called "What is politics?" because it's being co-taught by Noam Chomsky.

[TS Garp]

Just taking a class called "What is politics?" because it's being co-taught by Noam Chomsky.

That’s amazing. I had no idea he was still teaching! How old is he?

[DMT]

That’s amazing. I had no idea he was still teaching! How old is he?

He just turned 90, amazing indeed! He "retired" in Tucson but thankfully still wants to share his wisdom.

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[Judge Jude]

I watched Kamala Harris on with Maddow on MSNBC tonight.

a "home game," obviously, but she was solid. and plenty of candidates can't even win a home game, I've found over the years.

there was a question about some rogue lab tech when she was a prosecutor, and why didn't she know. she didn't act defensive, and on the surface anyway seemed to have an explanation. if it gets 4 Pinocchios from a fact check, I'll let you know, but she came across well.

Maddow seems worried about Harris's opposition to the death penalty, but she doesn't seem to be.
and of course the best case against it is the unequal use of it against minorities. I think that case can resonate more than Maddow thinks - if we get that far. I have known a female judge in Texas for a long time who opposes the death penalty, but she keeps getting re-elected as a Democrat because she goes all-in against rapists, child molesters, and so forth. she's tough on crime, so Texans live with that death penalty thing.

Harris passed the audition, is what I am saying. the debates and then the primary battles next year will be brutal and with way too many candidates. but we may have something here.

[Sour Masher]

I watched Kamala Harris on with Maddow on MSNBC tonight.

a "home game," obviously, but she was solid. and plenty of candidates can't even win a home game, I've found over the years.

there was a question about some rogue lab tech when she was a prosecutor, and why didn't she know. she didn't act defensive, and on the surface anyway seemed to have an explanation. if it gets 4 Pinocchios from a fact check, I'll let you know, but she came across well.

Maddow seems worried about Harris's opposition to the death penalty, but she doesn't seem to be.
and of course the best case against it is the unequal use of it against minorities. I think that case can resonate more than Maddow thinks - if we get that far. I have known a female judge in Texas for a long time who opposes the death penalty, but she keeps getting re-elected as a Democrat because she goes all-in against rapists, child molesters, and so forth. she's tough on crime, so Texans live with that death penalty thing.

Harris passed the audition, is what I am saying. the debates and then the primary battles next year will be brutal and with way too many candidates. but we may have something here.

I too find her to be a solid candidate so far. My wife, however, believes she has no shot on God's green earth of being a viable candidate. She does not believe a black woman as aggressive as she sometimes can come off would be accepted by enough voters to win.