Election 2020

[The Feral Slasher]

IDK, the guy in the article broke it down, and it doesn't make a big dent in any of the big names, because of the way their wealth continues to grow with investments. He has charts to show the math. They make more than the pay each year, so their wealth continues to grow. I'm sure it would effect those with established wealth that are not growing their money much more, but does that apply to any of the ultra rich? The captial gains tax is a much bigger deal.

I am not sure who has the right numbers, but hopefully the link below works. It tells a different story. Regardless, i think we can agree it would be a huge tax increase for billionaires. Which I suspect many of them would not be happy about.

https://twitter.com/gabriel_zucman/status/1192224212997427200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1192224212997427200&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fwarrens-wealth-tax-would-fund-health-care-and-free-college-but-would-it-leave-billionaires-like-bill-gates-enough-for-the-greater-good-2019-11-08

[The Feral Slasher]

IDK, the guy in the article broke it down, and it doesn't make a big dent in any of the big names, because of the way their wealth continues to grow with investments. He has charts to show the math. They make more than the pay each year, so their wealth continues to grow. I'm sure it would effect those with established wealth that are not growing their money much more, but does that apply to any of the ultra rich? The captial gains tax is a much bigger deal.

Part of the disconnect is that you are saying they still have most of their money, and I am saying they are seeing a huge tax increase. Both can be true. But long term I believe their wealth would be significantly affected. Although this is all theoretical, because as you said it is unlikely to ever become law.

[Sour Masher]

I am not sure who has the right numbers, but hopefully the link below works. It tells a different story. Regardless, i think we can agree it would be a huge tax increase for billionaires. Which I suspect many of them would not be happy about.


https://twitter.com/gabriel_zucman/s...ood-2019-11-08

That number must include the capital gains tax, which is part of her plan. Everything I've read says that is by far the biggest hit. But yeah, they won't be happy either way.

[revo]

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has become the 2nd late entrant into the Democratic race, announcing today he’s jumping in.

[Sour Masher]

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has become the 2nd late entrant into the Democratic race, announcing today he’s jumping in.

Seems pointless, but maybe I'm vastly underestimating his appeal and name recognition.

[Teenwolf]

Impeachment should significantly hurt Bernie and Warren in the early states. They're the only senators in the race, and once it goes through the House to the Senate, Warren and Sanders will be required to attend the hearings 6 days a week. Really hampers them not being able to rally through the states in person. Unless they come up with huge highlights from the Senate impeachment hearings, but even then, it seems like a clear disadvantage for those two. Something to keep in mind. I'm sure Nancy Pelosi would never use an impeachment process to hold back her Democratic rivals, right?

[DMT]

Impeachment should significantly hurt Bernie and Warren in the early states. They're the only senators in the race, and once it goes through the House to the Senate, Warren and Sanders will be required to attend the hearings 6 days a week. Really hampers them not being able to rally through the states in person. Unless they come up with huge highlights from the Senate impeachment hearings, but even then, it seems like a clear disadvantage for those two. Something to keep in mind. I'm sure Nancy Pelosi would never use an impeachment process to hold back her Democratic rivals, right?

I'm gonna assume this was a joke. If not, get some fresh air.

[Teenwolf]

I'm gonna assume this was a joke. If not, get some fresh air.

It's called tongue-in-cheek. Glad you were so triggered. Made my day, thx bud.

Funny, you don't have anything to say about Warren's Medicare for All pay-for's?

You've been quite hostile towards me concerning my critiques of Warren's squishiness on Medicare for All, and I don't believe you've had anything to say about it since she dropped the details of her plan. All businesses over 50 workers receive a $9,500 head tax. That won't hurt employment? That won't incentivize employers to create smaller wings of gig economy bullshit to avoid the tax? You think it makes sense to charge the same $9.5K per worker whether they earn $30K or $200K? That's not regressive as hell? I'm sure that won't affect low wage worker benefits!

Oh, and you've gotta love how pragmatic her plan is, right? I mean, tying immigration reform savings into the passing of Medicare for All is brilliant, should just make it easier to pass, right?

[Sour Masher]

It's called tongue-in-cheek. Glad you were so triggered. Made my day, thx bud.

Funny, you don't have anything to say about Warren's Medicare for All pay-for's?

You've been quite hostile towards me concerning my critiques of Warren's squishiness on Medicare for All, and I don't believe you've had anything to say about it since she dropped the details of her plan. All businesses over 50 workers receive a $9,500 head tax. That won't hurt employment? That won't incentivize employers to create smaller wings of gig economy bullshit to avoid the tax? You think it makes sense to charge the same $9.5K per worker whether they earn $30K or $200K? That's not regressive as hell? I'm sure that won't affect low wage worker benefits!

Oh, and you've gotta love how pragmatic her plan is, right? I mean, tying immigration reform savings into the passing of Medicare for All is brilliant, should just make it easier to pass, right?

Her plan is flawed, but any plan that looks to raise the kind of money Med4All requires is going to have tons of issues. Do you really think Sanders plan can get passed and that if it did, it would go over well? It would face massive headwinds from the GOP and blue dog dems. Even if by some miracle, Med4All gets passed, everyone would live in constant fear of the sort of "repeal and replace" attacks the much more modest ACA faced.

I really don't know what it would take for it to work in the US. I'd guess it would have to happen in stages for something this big. I don't know if one Act that does it all could get passed all at once. Are there successful historical precedents for a massive and fast switch from a private insurance to a universal government coverage model for a large country? It would be interesting to look at them. The models I am thinking of, like the NHS, and Canada's system grew piecemeal over a long period of time.

[Teenwolf]

This clip of JFK sounds so much like Bernie Sanders, its unbelievable. I like the commentary here, but if you want to just watch the JFK bit, it's from 2:20-4:40.

[Sour Masher]

This clip of JFK sounds so much like Bernie Sanders, its unbelievable. I like the commentary here, but if you want to just watch the JFK bit, it's from 2:20-4:40.

You see this as uplifting; I see it as depressing. Sixty years later and we still aren't there. We still have half the country (or more) who think Reagan was a better president than JFK, and think his ideology was better too. Many of the countries who have universal healthcare today started that journey post-WW II. The US did not. What is different right at this moment from the last 75 years that makes you think this country is ready for it? I know you have cited polls that show widespread support, but all of those ask the question without reminding voters that doing this will cost money. It all depends on how you ask the question, and the polls I've seen don't look good when you tell folks taxes will have to be raised on them to make this happen.

IDK, maybe the right guy can make the right argument to get it done. Maybe Bernie is that guy. I'm skeptical given our country's history and ideological leanings. Maybe that is changing with the younger folks. Not sure they have enough votes yet, though.

[Teenwolf]

Her plan is flawed, but any plan that looks to raise the kind of money Med4All requires is going to have tons of issues. Do you really think Sanders plan can get passed and that if it did, it would go over well? It would face massive headwinds from the GOP and blue dog dems. Even if by some miracle, Med4All gets passed, everyone would live in constant fear of the sort of "repeal and replace" attacks the much more modest ACA faced.

I really don't know what it would take for it to work in the US. I'd guess it would have to happen in stages for something this big. I don't know if one Act that does it all could get passed all at once. Are there successful historical precedents for a massive and fast switch from a private insurance to a universal government coverage model for a large country? It would be interesting to look at them. The models I am thinking of, like the NHS, and Canada's system grew piecemeal over a long period of time.

Some thoughts. Once you implement a universal system, you will never be able to take it away from people. There's no chipping away, because its popularity is unassailable. Cutting health care funding in Canada is a death sentence for politicians. Even on the right wing, people don't look kindly on taking away basic human rights. I can't remember if I posted an article on here or not about a Canadian guy who foam sprayed the hospital parking meters as a protest, but it gives you an idea of how we treat our health care. Once people understand health care as a human right, they will never let it go.

As far as implementation being unwieldy, look at the implementation of the original Medicare bill from 1965. At the time, elderly people faced a crisis. Only 60% of people 65+ had health insurance, and they were paying triple the rates of younger people. The bill went into effect immediately, and spurred the desegregation of hospital waiting rooms. So that sounds like a pretty difficult scenario to get all of those people covered, and I can't find anything that mentions difficulties or pushback, or wait time increases, or anything negative at all. Pramila Jayapal has proposed a 2 year phase in period for Medicare for All, but I think Bernie's 4 year approach should quell fears of too much too soon from moderates. Covering 55-64 in year 1, 45-54 in year 2, etc, seems like a pretty reasonable plan.

Lastly, from what I hear on political strategy, the only way to get it passed would be to pressure senators to support it. You need a left-Trump in terms of the bully pulpit, someone who will rally the base that says "Oh, Joe Manchin, you don't want to support Medicare for All? We're gonna hold a rally in your district supporting your primary opponent, and we'll find someone who will support it." You need someone willing to fight the Democratic party, controlled by anti-Med4All folks like Nancy Pelosi. Bernie would fight, Warren would cave. Simple as that. Warren was once asked about how to get things done with conservatives in the party like Joe Manchin, and her response, word for word, "allow me to make a spirited defense of Joe Manchin." So you need a fighter to get anything done. Bernie is that fighter. Warren is not.

[Teenwolf]

You see this as uplifting; I see it as depressing. Sixty years later and we still aren't there. We still have half the country (or more) who think Reagan was a better president than JFK, and think his ideology was better too. Many of the countries who have universal healthcare today started that journey post-WW II. The US did not. What is different right at this moment from the last 75 years that makes you think this country is ready for it? I know you have cited polls that show widespread support, but all of those ask the question without reminding voters that doing this will cost money. It all depends on how you ask the question, and the polls I've seen don't look good when you tell folks taxes will have to be raised on them to make this happen.

IDK, maybe the right guy can make the right argument to get it done. Maybe Bernie is that guy. I'm skeptical given our country's history and ideological leanings. Maybe that is changing with the younger folks. Not sure they have enough votes yet, though.

Your view on how the question is phrased is slanted. When the question is framed as a negative, it polls lower. When its framed accurately, it polls at 70%. The negative-leading questions still poll around 50%. So I think public opinion has turned.

I've watched a few Bernie town halls in Iowa. You should see him defuse angry and scared voters on the issue of health care. Watch him calm down this super pissed off guy at 1:07:15. He's great at reversing the narrative and winning over someone that came in with hostility.

[Teenwolf]

This should really piss off DMT.

Impeachment will not happen. But the process will keep Sanders and Warren stuck in Washington for 6 days a week through Jan + Feb. Huge win for Biden.

[Sour Masher]

This should really piss off DMT.

Impeachment will not happen. But the process will keep Sanders and Warren stuck in Washington for 6 days a week through Jan + Feb. Huge win for Biden.

Is the unfairness of this fact sufficient cause to drop impeachment? Public pressure on the on the left has been high to do this. Do you think Pelosi would ignore that pressure if Biden were a senator and the progressive candidates were not? Do you believe her and the Dems primary motivation with impeachment is to screw Sanders and Warren, or to signal to Trump that him holding the Ukraine ransom until they agreed to discredit a political rival is unacceptable behavior for a president?

I'm willing to believe Pelosi and other moderates aren't gonna lose sleep over what they may consider a happy side benefit to impeachment, but I don't believe that is her/their primary motivation on this. Trump deserves to be impeached. GOPers need to be put on record with this vote. I think it will haunt them. I don't think this is an insurmountable obstacle to Sanders and Warren. Hell, if by some miracle, impeachment happens, they could use it as a big win as the two candidates that voted to help make it happen. I know that is a long shot, though. They can still cite themselves as candidates actually working in Washington to get things done while others just campaign.