Election 2020

[B-Fly]

sad to say, but I think 2016 taught us that only those Rust Belt states matter - the same ones that Michael Moore predicted would hand the election to Trump. the 2-time Obama voters who flipped to Trump.

Probably so, but it's worth noting that Biden and Sanders, the two leading candidates per the polls, both have material strengths they can play to in those states, despite that they arguably represent the center-most and left-most wings of the current Democratic Party.

[revo]

Latest national poll. Wow,look at who's beating Trump by the largest margin:

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	CNN	Biden 51, Trump 45	Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	CNN	Sanders 50, Trump 44	Sanders +6
General Election: Trump vs. Warren	CNN	Trump 48, Warren 47	Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg	CNN	Buttigieg 47, Trump 44	Buttigieg +3
General Election: Trump vs. Harris	CNN	Harris 49, Trump 45	Harris +4
General Election: Trump vs. O'Rourke	CNN	O'Rourke 52, Trump 42	O'Rourke +10

[B-Fly]

Latest national poll. Wow,look at who's beating Trump by the largest margin:

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	CNN	Biden 51, Trump 45	Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	CNN	Sanders 50, Trump 44	Sanders +6
General Election: Trump vs. Warren	CNN	Trump 48, Warren 47	Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg	CNN	Buttigieg 47, Trump 44	Buttigieg +3
General Election: Trump vs. Harris	CNN	Harris 49, Trump 45	Harris +4
General Election: Trump vs. O'Rourke	CNN	O'Rourke 52, Trump 42	O'Rourke +10

Yeah, that's surprising given that O'Rourke has not really been showing all that well against the Democratic field. I'm disappointed that the polls aren't showing better for the women in the race, to the extent they're even being considered. I think Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, Gillibrand and Gabbard all deserve closer consideration from the voters.

[Teenwolf]

Yeah, that's surprising given that O'Rourke has not really been showing all that well against the Democratic field. I'm disappointed that the polls aren't showing better for the women in the race, to the extent they're even being considered. I think Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, Gillibrand and Gabbard all deserve closer consideration from the voters.

Tulsi Gabbard is going to surge. She just got a massive endorsement. Joe Rogan is a problematic figure for many reasons, but you can't deny his reach. Largest podcast there is, I think.

[Steve 2.0]

So your saying a winning strategy for Democrats is a moderate...hmm, who'd of thought...

If I were the Dems, I'd try like hell to get more electoral college votes than the Republicans.

Hey, just my strategy.

[Steve 2.0]

. Largest podcast there is, I think.

So.......size does matter?

[onejayhawk]

And so it is, sarcasm not-with-standing.

The economy is still the gorilla in the room. The Democrats have to deal with fallout from the collapse of the Mueller fiasco and the growing Obama era scandal. They have almost no chance without an unexpected recession.

J

[Steve 2.0]

And so it is, sarcasm not-with-standing.

The economy is still the gorilla in the room. The Democrats have to deal with fallout from the collapse of the Mueller fiasco and the growing Obama era scandal. They have almost no chance without an unexpected recession.

J

OR Trump's supporters wake up to what a liar and jackass he is.

[B-Fly]

OR Trump's supporters wake up to what a liar and jackass he is.

By any polling other than Rasumussen, Trump's "supporters" shouldn't be enough to carry him to victory. He'll also need some critics to prefer him over the Democratic alternatives. I'll grant to onejayhawk that a strong economy (or one perceived as strong) could help Trump in that regard, but it's way too early to make any presumptions about how voters will view the strength of the economy in November 2020.

[umjewman]

By any polling other than Rasumussen, Trump's "supporters" shouldn't be enough to carry him to victory. He'll also need some critics to prefer him over the Democratic alternatives. I'll grant to onejayhawk that a strong economy (or one perceived as strong) could help Trump in that regard, but it's way too early to make any presumptions about how voters will view the strength of the economy in November 2020.

Don't forget that Ted Cruz hasn't ruled out a primary challenge yet. Can Trump topple Goliath again?!?

[umjewman]

If I were the Dems, I'd try like hell to get more electoral college votes than the Republicans.

Hey, just my strategy.

Did you just steal Griswold's shtick? Bad form, Steve 2.0, bad form.

[griswold]

Did you just steal Griswold's shtick? Bad form, Steve 2.0, bad form.

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, right?

[onejayhawk]

OR Trump's supporters wake up to what a liar and jackass he is.

Were you aware that they call him the promise keeper?

By any polling other than Rasumussen, Trump's "supporters" shouldn't be enough to carry him to victory. He'll also need some critics to prefer him over the Democratic alternatives. I'll grant to onejayhawk that a strong economy (or one perceived as strong) could help Trump in that regard, but it's way too early to make any presumptions about how voters will view the strength of the economy in November 2020.

I have not checked Rasmussen specifically, but Trump's support gets stronger the more likely the pollee is to vote, ie LV > RV > Adult. Trump won against a fantastically well financed opponent as an outsider. He will not do worse as an incumbent and having superior financing.

Regardless, there is a counter-offensive coming. Flood's letter to Barr is just the opening salvo.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/02/politics/white-house-letter-to-ag-barr/index.html

J

[Steve 2.0]

Don't forget that Ted Cruz hasn't ruled out a primary challenge yet. Can Trump topple Goliath again?!?

If Cruz runs against Trump, that will prove the man has no soul. (and I'm an atheist).

[Steve 2.0]

Did you just steal Griswold's shtick? Bad form, Steve 2.0, bad form.

It was just lying there on the ground.