Election 2020

[TranaGreg]

Gamblers have moved the live odds to -385 for Biden as of 8 AM.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/politi...tial-race-2020

thanks for posting, it had been an hour and I was starting to think something happened to you guys ... like sleep or something ...

[revo]

Gamblers have moved the live odds to -385 for Biden as of 8 AM.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/politi...tial-race-2020

-400 now.



PredictIt's Trump market is crashing! Down $0.30 to $0.29. Sell Mortimer, sell!!!

[umjewman]

Gamblers have moved the live odds to -385 for Biden as of 8 AM.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/politi...tial-race-2020

That gives me more optimism than any news channel. Gamblers know.

[frae]

thanks for posting, it had been an hour and I was starting to think something happened to you guys ... like sleep or something ...

All the coffee man, all the coffee.

[Hornsby]

I think that we have to look at this very closely in the future...

[revo]

That gives me more optimism than any news channel. Gamblers know.

If you had watched the odds fluctuate wildly from 7pm to 1am, you'd probably change your mind!

[frae]

If you had watched the odds fluctuate wildly from 7pm to 1am, you'd probably change your mind!

Yeah before Milwaukee came in Biden hit a low odds of 29% around 4:30 AM, but since that point, it has been a steady climb.

[onejayhawk]

Wow. This thread is exactly 700 pages in my browser.

It looks like Biden will squeak one out. Wisconsin is close to going to Biden, which means Trump needs both Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It's begging the question, were the polls intentionally wrong. The Selzer poll in Iowa proves that it can be done correctly, but it can also be a form of vote suppression. Wisconsin is leaning to Biden. How much did the 17% Washington Post poll affect the turn out?

The other thing is method. The Trump campaign pulls a ton of data out of the rallies. He was pulling large numbers of non-voters. Were the pollsters genuinely trying to get a good sample, or were they same old song, same old dancers?

One phrase from the live coverage resonated. Under Trump, the Republicans have become the party of wage earners. The irony is that Biden may win on the women's vote, when Hillary did not.

[frae]

Biden takes his first lead in Michigan...

[revo]

PredictIt's Trump market is crashing! Down $0.30 to $0.29. Sell Mortimer, sell!!!

Down to $0.17 now. Sell sell sell!!!!

[onejayhawk]

One of the 270 EV scenarios could easily play out.

If Biden wins Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, he has exactly 270 and Trump leads everywhere else. If those leads hold up, it goes to the electors, who are not even encouraged to vote with their state. The design of the electoral College is that the electors can vote how they want.

J

[chancellor]

If Biden wins Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, he has exactly 270 and Trump leads everywhere else. If those leads hold up, it goes to the electors, who are not even encouraged to vote with their state. The design of the electoral College is that the electors can vote how they want.

Uh, no. That's madness. Faithless electors are forbidden by law in over 30 states, and no one would even consider making themselves the martyr for this cause. Biden looks pretty locked in to get 270, only impediment will be the lawyers in Wisconsin and Michigan at this point. The only question left, IMO, is whether the GOP holds the Senate. While Trump is down 20,000ish votes from the count I'm looking at, James is up 20,000+ votes in the same count. There's still a lot of hairy races other than that - Tillis, Collins, Perdue. If you assume Sullivan is good in Alaska, then the GOP needs three of those four to lock down the majority without the Georgia runoff election.

Edit to add: If the Senate comes in 50-49 GOP without the runoff, I can't imagine how much money will be spent in Georgia on the runoff election. It'll be outrageous.

[Sour Masher]

It looks to me like the GOP will retain the Senate, and that is depressing, because that will severely hinder anything getting done at all under Biden. The polls were wrong many places, but boy were they way off in Maine with Susan Collins.

[frae]

Edit to add: If the Senate comes in 50-49 GOP without the runoff, I can't imagine how much money will be spent in Georgia on the runoff election. It'll be outrageous.

I actually think we are going to get 2 runoffs looking at the vote left in GA. Perdue will be ahead probably but I think he is going to fall short of 50% so double the money. It could be 49-49 with all if it coming down to GA.

[frae]

It looks to me like the GOP will retain the Senate, and that is depressing, because that will severely hinder anything getting done at all under Biden. The polls were wrong many places, but boy were they way off in Maine with Susan Collins.

It has not been a good night for the Senate but I think the Democrats do still pull out MI for Peters, but it will be closer than Trump/Biden. So the chances for a D senate could come down to Collins and then the GA runoffs. Maine uses ranked voting so if no one gets 50% we will see a majority of the 3rd party vote likely go to Gideon, will it be enough? I don't know.

NC is going to be harder to overcome but I do expect what is out will break to Cunningham, but not sure there is enough out.