Election 2020

[GwynnInTheHall]

Not sure where to fit this, group of 200 led by pastor, peacefully walking from church to polls, were, without warning, pepper sprayed. Group was, of course, almost all black, andsome young children were among thosse pepper sprayed. https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...olls/24670213/

This seems to be a feature, not a bug. This was deliberate, there was no action that set off law enforcement, just the fact they were dark skinned, and so you can do whatever without consequence, is a selling point for trump supporters. Tuesday, specifically tuesday night after 7 pm est, I predict a long night of violence, egged on by FOX, by trump, supported by law enforcement who may hand out well wishes and waters to "militia".

Voter suppression and racism isn't anything new for this Sherriff's Dept.

https://greensboro.com/business/alamance-county-sheriffs-deputies-shared-racist-video-game/article_58baf39e-a4c6-11e3-aa6c-0017a43b2370.html

Among other things.

[revo]

There are known cases where Trump supporters try to sandbag the polls by giving Biden and Democrats support. How common this is, I cannot say. The troubling thing is that one such activist had been polled multiple times, five IIRC. That indicates some form of a contact list, which is a very bad thing if you want accuracy.

J

In EVERY poll in EVERY battleground state? That’s ridiculous.

What was Texas law enforcement supposed to do? Right to assemble is 1st amendment and it was a lot more peaceful than BLM/Antifa last summer.

Whaaat? They kept brake checking the bus and intentionally rammed another car. Texas FBI has now been called. You’re out of your mind.

And BTW, the orange turd tweeted out this video with this comment: “I LOVE TEXAS.” Do you think he incites violence? Would love to hear your answer.

[madducks]

They never were shy Trump voters, IMO. If anyone is a shy voter, it's Biden/Harris voters, simply because of the irrational behavior of many Trumpsters. Who needs to deal with that crap? They tried to intimidate a VP candidate, and Texas LEO's did nothing about it.

The FBI is now investigating the incident with the bus.

[madducks]

The FBI is now investigating the incident with the bus.

President Donald Trump tweeted a video of the bus incident with the words "I LOVE TEXAS!" on Saturday, and claimed at a campaign rally on Sunday that his supporters were "protecting" the bus.
"But it is something, did you see the way our people they ... you know they were protecting his bus yesterday, because they're nice," the President said.

Biden told reporters in Texas Sunday evening, "We've never had anything like this."
"At least we've never had a president who thinks it's a good thing," he said.

[Kevin Seitzer]

The federal lawsuit by Republicans seeking to throw out 127,000 votes cast at drive-thru voting centers in Harris County, Texas, is a much bigger deal than Abbott's order to close the extra drop-off locations for mail-in ballots.

[Kevin Seitzer]

It's stuff like this that means it clear to me that the Republican Party now stands against the people and for authoritarian power grabs. There is no reason to entrust them with the responsibility of governing us.

[Teenwolf]

Police use pepper spray on voters.

[GwynnInTheHall]

The federal lawsuit by Republicans seeking to throw out 127,000 votes cast at drive-thru voting centers in Harris County, Texas, is a much bigger deal than Abbott's order to close the extra drop-off locations for mail-in ballots.

At least it was denied, the votes will count, but you are correct--the GOP does not stand for what it did just 4 years ago.

[Kevin Seitzer]

At least it was denied, the votes will count, but you are correct--the GOP does not stand for what it did just 4 years ago.

There are two lawsuits. The one filed in state court was denied. It's the one filed in federal court that concerns me. The judge is very pro-Trump. He has scheduled a hearing for tomorrow.

[GwynnInTheHall]

There are two lawsuits. The one filed in state court was denied. It's the one filed in federal court that concerns me. The judge is very pro-Trump. He has scheduled a hearing for tomorrow.

Thanks for the clarification.

[nullnor]

whatever happens tomorrow, it's not really going to change anything. even if you wanted to.

[frae]

The cake is pretty much baked as far as polling goes. Monmouth was probably the last big PA poll to come out and it is up 5, though I saw somewhere on twitter Fox might have another poll today. Everything else this morning was B or lower rated polls. Trafalgar going all in with their Trump will win stance as they put him up 3 in MI which makes them the only pollster to show Trump ever leading there.

Wasserman had his projections on Morning Joe this morning he went with Biden in GA, AZ, MI, WI, NC, NE-2, ME-2 and PA and Trump holding FL and TX.

I don't know that Nate will give us his own personal projection, but they are pretty locked in probability wise of something like 89-91 - 11-9. As we have covered those things move quickly the other way if Trump wins PA, but without PA those numbers will stay roughly the same because you then expect MI and WI to go with PA. There are some true tossups here that won't be a polling error if Trump wins, GA, FL, and NC the reverse goes for Biden if he wins OH, TX or IA that won't be a polling error just a tossup state moving slightly the other way. AZ is a little closer to we could say there was a polling mistake but 3 points is usually within the MOE, but none of the A rated pollsters have given Trump a lead so this one is the first one I would be surprised about. Where we get to something wasn't right is with PA. Every well rated pollster has Biden with at least a 5 points the only polls giving Trump a lead are from 3 B- or below rated polls and he has a lead of 1, 3, and 1. From a data available only stand point Biden is clearly a favorite in PA and if he wins PA with MI and WI the path to a Trump victory is basically gone.

The House is going to the Democrats the question is how much do they gain? I am getting guesses of 10-15 from people I follow and that is to go with the gains from last time.

The Senate is probably where the most drama is if this was just a normal president. The results for this could go all sorts of directions. The easy predictions Dems win CO and AZ while Reps win AL. You now get into some very close races.

Iowa - a total coin flip in a state that Trump should win maybe that pushes it to Ernst, but this one is likely to be very tight.

Maine - Gideon is a slight favorite over Collins and this state will go to Biden so maybe that is the push Gideon needs

Georgia 1 - Ossoff has really made this a race and in a state that shows polling trending toward Biden this could go to Osoff. Perdue has the slightest better odds, but we are talking less than half a point in the vote. Also with this now being so close any serious 3rd party voting could require a runoff if it prevents either candidate from getting to 50%

Georgia 2 - It'll be a runoff for sure the questions is does long time Trump boot licker Collins beat qanon candidate endorsed Loeffler? I guess I am betting on the seated Senator to hold off Collins, but who knows. Regardless polling lately in the possible H2H matchups show Warnock leading both, should be interesting.

North Carolina - The race that proves Democrats have finally learned not to care about scandals because we know Republicans don't. Cunningham has been a slight favorite now for months and with NC ever so slightly titled to Biden I think he gets it done.

Montana - Only a race because Bullock ran, but not sure he can do it. This has the same odds as NC but in favor of Daines. My only hope here is MT has not been very well polled and maybe Bullocks popularity from being Gov can carry him?

We now get to reach states that I don't expect to go blue.

South Carolina - I don't think the demos have shifted enough and R's come home and vote for Graham.

Kansas - Not a ton of polling is again the only question, but the demos and history tell us not to expect Bollier to upset Marshall.

Michigan - Peters may not be an electric candidate but with MI moving back to Biden and only one outlier poll getting this race really close I just don't see it.

Alaska - Not a lot of polling but again past history suggests how this will go, but it is about a 3/4 chance so worth a mention because 1/4 isn't nothing.

Texas - While Trump has been in a consistently close race during this cycle it has not been the same for Cornyn. Hegar has never led and I just don't see this being within 5 points.

Mississippi- Hyde-Smith remains a pretty terrible person, but she is a Republican in Mississippi. There is no good polling here, but again MS.

538 doesn't have anything else under 90% probability. I'll eventually make some picks, but that is a summary of the Senate.

[Sour Masher]

Frae, what is the cliff notes version of the most likely outcome for the Senate? Are you confident in 51-49 or better for the Dems?

[frae]

Frae, what is the cliff notes version of the most likely outcome for the Senate? Are you confident in 51-49 or better for the Dems?

It is really close and could come down to 1 or 2 GA runoffs. My optimistic view is they pickup AZ, CO, Maine, NC and lose AL. That is a net 3 before we get to the GA races and IA which I would call coin flips at this point and maybe an outside shot in MT. You need that net 3 to get to 50 and a Biden win gives you control. So the high end is win IA and both GA seats to get 53 and I guess MT gives you 54.

It can be very close for sure and if Maine or NC go the other way R's can definitely retain control.

[nullnor]

And I'd love for someone to try to defend the fairness or logic of the EC

the EC is supposed to create a decentralized system which is supposed to enable democracy. when something is decentralized it's harder to control or do damage. it hasn't worked out the last few decades but that is not a reason to chuck it. also, people have said they don't like the idea of voting by foot. but that is the idea. if you don't like your state then fucking move to one you do. if you can't move that's your fault -and as a result, in the grand scheme of things, you can't contribute even if you want to. for example, i'm poor, I can't move if I wanted to. but I am in a blue state.

but even if I really hated my state and was aware of what I was up against vs my opinion, if politics even mattered to me, I would find a way to move. and there it is. the logic of the electoral vote. the popular vote doesn't mean shit. this isn't some utopian democracy. there's a price to pay. the real struggle for power rests with the states. if you are successful and can set the example of modern citizenship then you are allowed to play. look at California for example, they are so big they set their own policies and as a result other states have to follow. Texas too.

compare those two states. California makes rules for agriculture, Texas sets rules for environmental disasters due to poor regulation. and the rest of the country follows. you can't go around counting every vote. unless you can turn your state into the color you want. it's a cruel system but effective and better than some false utopian alternative.

I realize democrats have won't the popular vote more often and still lost SCOTUS and the presidency. America has flaws, but it's still the best system politically. when your best strategy is forcing women to have birth so you can count more people trapped in a cycle of poverty so you can elect more politicians to Washington to faux represent them but increase your electoral votes. that sort of strategy takes time. it's a lot easier to just move.

that's the real tragedy, where people are born and then trapped and counted for electoral votes. but that strategy doesn't work when the economy is bad from inequality. people have less families.

it's survival of the fittest. we might be a united country but it's still a competitive state vs state. you have to draw the line somewhere. there has to be some rules. somebody has to lose for others to win. ..although a financial person told me once that was a philosophical argument.