Election 2020

[frae]

Thanks Frae. That totally looks like someone making stuff up there, so it makes me feel better. I got worried by that second point that other polls are using round about ways to tease out shy Trump voters. What can we make, if anything, about a larger percentage of people saying they think their friends and family will vote for Trump and that Trump will win than people who say they will actually vote for Trump? Is that just pessimism on their part? I guess it could be and we still have to trust the number of people who actually say they will vote for one or the other.

I can't tell you much, except I know the highly rated pollsters don't want to be wrong twice and have made efforts to make sure they get a more accurate sample. I just don't believe there is anyone voting for Trump who is actually shy about it, that isn't his brand, but there could be Trump voters who are less likely to talk to pollsters. That's where finding a good sample takes time and effort by the pollsters.

2016 well rated pollsters missed the midwest they had Clinton +7 in most of those states but 538 had adjusted the 3 states HRC lost down to about +4 for MI, PA and WI so near the MOE, but Clinton almost never was getting 50% or better in polls unlike Biden. If the models and pollsters miss this time they are going to miss outside of almost 2 MOE's in MI and WI. PA is a bit closer to 1.5 MOE.

All any of us can do is look at data and if you support Trump you can find data that will support that but I do not find that data reliable.

[Teenwolf]

Naked ballots, signature mismatch, mail-in votes received after election day, and many more tools are being used to install Trump for a 2nd term. These are powerful weapons. I believe the hidden Trump vote accounts for about a 3-4% swing to Trump, as I previously read in a well-reasoned article on the topic. Add these 2 factors together, combine with media calling the election a blowout Biden win before election day, combine with a massive Trump lead in voter enthusiasm, a leading indicator of who is more likely to vote... it ain't over by a long shot.

Oh yeah, combine all those factors with Trump being President and 100% unwilling to cede power, 100% willing to de-legitimize results to stay in power, willing to use his millions of loony Q and white supremacist psychos to inflict violence on his opposition...

Let's just say I'm a little less optimistic than the poll watchers on this board. Frae said "if you support Trump you can find data that will support that but I do not find that data reliable", but you don't need to support him to believe he's going to win.

I'm still 50/50 on whether Trump will win or lose, but I'm 100% certain the margin of victory will be smaller than polling averages indicate.

[revo]

The S&P500 has a great history of predicting the outcome of the Presidential Election.

Since 1928, the S&P500 has had an 87% success rate in predicting results, and it's been correct in every election since 1984. It's based on the index's performance in the three months prior to the election. If the index performance is up, the incumbent party is predicted to win; if it's down, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. It's been right in 20 of 23 elections since 1928. The only times it's been wrong was in 1956, 1968 and 1980. In 1968, the incumbent LBJ decided not to run for re-election and it was arguably the most tumultuous election cycle in American history. In 1980, the Iran hostage drama and a recession were the prevailing factors, even if the S&P 500 did rally in the 3 months prior to the election. There was no drama in 1956; Ike was just an extremely popular president and war hero and easily won re-election despite a -3.2% S&P500 return in those prior 3 months.

Election day is November 3rd.

The S&P500 Index on August 3rd was 3,294.61.

The S&P500 is currently at 3254.87

The S&P500's return in the August 3-November 3 period leading up to election day is currently:

-1.21%

[frae]

A good explanation of why we can’t totally just extrapolate data from party affiliation only in FL early voting

[DMT]

So Texas has already surpassed its total votes cast in 2016. Yep, I'm sure this helps Trump.

[frae]

So Texas has already surpassed its total votes cast in 2016. Yep, I'm sure this helps Trump.

Nationally we are at 62% of the 2016 total vote with a few days before election day...

[DMT]

There is no way the polls are capturing all the first time voters who want Trump gone. It's gonna be a landslide.

[Sour Masher]

Trump canceling his election night party and preemptively blaming the SC makes me feel good.

[frae]

LOL...I don't care what the numbers are now, but NC isn't flipping unless Tillis dies before the election, and at this point, that might not even matter. Cunningham is totally freaking out. Check out his latest basement video.

I am not saying Cal Cunningham will win, but I did want to point out the race has not changed substantially in anyway by any poll measure since this came out. He's basically only dropped from a 67/100 chance to a 63/100 chance....

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/north-carolina/

Sienna and now Marist both show him leading in the last week, now this Marist poll seems a bit of an outlier, but that is a hell of a poll to end on for Cunningham...

[revo]

Let's also not forget that the polls were right on the money in the Dem primaries too -- despite some here drilling down and saying they were worthless.

[Kevin Seitzer]

So Texas has already surpassed its total votes cast in 2016. Yep, I'm sure this helps Trump.

I'm telling you guys...Texas is going to be the state that moves most dramatically from 2016. Whether that's enough to tip the state to Biden, I'm not entirely sure, but I don't think the polls are adequately accounting for the turnout effect. Yes, turnout is up everywhere, but Texas is blowing them all out of the water, especially urban and suburban Texas. Urban voter registration was way up, and now the turnout has followed suit.

[cardboardbox]

Congrats on the expected win, see you guys in two years!

Amazingly, the nominees in 2016 and 2020 have got to be 3 of the worst ever. I like a lot of what Trump has done, but I still dont like him much. Someday I hope to both be inspired by and agree with a prez nominee.

And this is step 1 on the path to Nikki Haley for president so I guess thats a positive.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I'm not much for polls, I can only make my call based on what I perceive, which is hardly scientific.

This election is NOTHING like 2016.

Trump was an unknown quantity who garnered votes from people who will NOT be voting for him this time. His base IS rabid, but hasn't grown over the last 4 years--they've just been more vocal. If anything Trump has LOST votes since 2016. He knows it and it's one of the reasons why he and his cronies are suppressing the vote.

Biden is NOT HRC, last time there was enough disdain toward HRC to affect the vote--that won't happen this time. Democrats are smashing turnout and hate, Hate, HATE Trump so much they'll stand in a Hurricane to vote him out. Texas has a TON of Dem voters who have mobilized and saying the turnout in TX helps Trump is not really accurate. Beto showed a Dem can make it close in Tx and Biden should be able to do the same.

Trumpers are comfortable in their paranoia and their urgency level hasn't changed at all. Democrats and Progressives on the other hand are treating this election as if Hitler himself was running and they'll all be sent off to camps if Trump is re-elected. Democrats are SUPER motivated. Trumpers thing he's already been re-elected and when he isn't will scream fraud because that's the game plan.



My prediction is this-- Biden crushes Trump on Election night--Trump demands ALL votes be counted (mail in) and he gets crushed even more.


The Hidden Trump Vote is just something being used to encourage left leaning voters to vote and get the vote out even more. It's not really a thing.


I'm calling my shot--Biden wins, Dems keep the house and flip the Senate.


Then it's payback time and what a time we will have.

[frae]

The day you guys bring up Trafalgar Nate finds out they have been doing polling for partisan clients without disclosing it. If you want to read the whole thread here is a link for that too

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1322301003090268162?s=21

[chancellor]

LOL. I mean, come on. Off Trafalgar’s home webpage:

“ Want a consultation and a quote for your campaign or business?”

I’m shocked, shocked that there’s partisan polling going on in Rick’s Cafe.

Edit for more now that I’ve cleaned up after laughing so hard: Holy crap, a polling group that’s intentionally looking for the elusive “shy” Trump voter might work for GOP clients?

No offense, since I think some on this board actually know Nate, but I have a VERY difficult time believing he’s that much of a naif.

More edit to add after another laughing jag: Trafalgar has always produced data that leans right - even more than Rasmussen. Now, Trafalgar was very accurate in the 2016 presidential race. So either you rate them highly because they’ve developed better polling methods than their competitors, or you discount due to the appearance they’re partisan. But freaking come on, anyone who is remotely familiar with the polling game knows where Trafalgar had been for years.